Merry Christmas 2024!

I wish everyone, this Wednesday, December 25, 2024, a Merry Christmas!

Bonnie Raitt: Just In ‘Time’

Singer and songwriter Bonnie Raitt turned 75 on November 8, 2024.

Raitt is one of the honorees at this year’s Kennedy Center Honors.

CBS will broadcast the recorded special next Sunday, December 22, 2024. (Check for local time.)

The 47th Kennedy Center Honors is hosted by Queen Latifah. (She was honored last year.)

For more information on this ceremony, which first started in 1978, I recommend reading the following report: Kennedy Center pays tribute to Coppola, the Grateful Dead, Raitt, Sandoval and The Apollo.

In 1989, the year Raitt turned 40, her crowning achievement Nick of Time was released in March. One year later, at the 32nd awards ceremony, Raitt was awarded the 1989 Grammy for Album of the Year.

When Raitt won that particular category—one of the Big Four in the General field (others are Record of the Year; Song of the Year; and Best New Artist)—she became only the fourth winning solo female artist. Judy Garland became the first, in 1961, for Judy at Carnegie Hall. Barbra Streisand was second, in 1963, for The Barbra Streisand Album. Third was Carole King, in 1971, for Tapestry. 

While her album was praised, and warmly embraced was this nomination, not many critics predicted this win for Raitt and Nick of Time. She won not only this much-covered prize but all four categories in which she received nominations. Raitt ended up, at the 1990 ceremony, the most awarded individual. Along with Album of the Year, “Nick of Time” (track) won her Best Female Pop Vocal Performance; Nick of Time (album) won her Best Female Rock Vocal Performance; and—while not on the LP and not presented at the live ceremony—her collaboration with John Lee Hooker on “I’m in the Mood” won them both Best Traditional Blues Recording.

1989 Grammy nominations for Album of Year were: The End of the Innocence, by Don Henley; Full Moon Fever, by Tom Petty; Nick of Time, by Bonnie Raitt; The Raw & the Cooked, by Fine Young Cannibals; Traveling Wilburys Vol. 1, by Traveling Wilburys. (Source: 32nd Annual Grammy Awards.)

This was a great win for Raitt…and it was in Time.

The album’s title track, which she wrote, is about being aware of getting older. Raitt, according to Wikipedia, began her professional career in 1971. While having a pure sound in voice, she struggled for years with addictions and failed projects. Many considered her Grammys triumph as having paid her dues. But the album, produced by Don Was, is a masterpiece. You can go over each track and observe blends of Rock, Pop, Blues, Country, and maybe a bit of R&B. “Nick of Time,” most especially, is a poignant song which includes the memorable lyrics which also speak to reality. While observing her parents and herself aging, she also realizes, “Life gets mighty precious…when there is less of it to waste.”

When Raitt was awarded with these Grammys, she was married to Oscar-nominated actor Michael O’Keefe. Her father was musical-theater actor and singer John Raitt (1917–2005). Her mother was Marjorie Haydock (1922–2004). Raitt has two brothers, David and Steve (who died in 2009). Her nephew is Bay Raitt who, according to Wikipedia, is “[an] American Artist, 3D Graphic Novelist, Animator and Video Game Developer” and is “responsible for creating the computer-generated face for [the character] Gollum in The Lord of the Rings.”

Below videos are Raitt winning her 1989 Grammys as broadcast, on CBS, February 21, 1990…and they are followed by a YouTuber’s audios of the tracks from Nick of Time.

Judi Dench and Tracey Ullman

December 2024 marks milestone birthdays for award-winning British actresses Tracey Ullman and Judi Dench.

Dench, born December 9, 1934, turns 90.

Ullman, born December 30, 1959, turns 65.

I came across some hilarious comedy segments in which Emmy winner Ullman portrays Dench in a particular light most would not associate with the magnificent Oscar and Tony winner.

Here are some videos:

My Six-Week Break Begins

I will be taking a break from posting political-related topics for six weeks.

Progressives Chat will publish on Sundays, December 1, 8, 15, 22, and 29, 2024 as well as January 5, 2025.

Regular topics as usually scheduled on Mondays will return January 13, 2025. One week later will be timed with Inauguration Day, for January 20, 2025, as Donald Trump legally becomes 47th U.S. president and, with him, JD Vance legally becomes 50th U.S. vice president.

I will have holiday threads timed for Christmas and New Year’s.

The breaks are to free me, at times, from having to write a specific topic.

Going on break, at this time, is for another reason: I am lately feeling like I need some time away from the usual. So, I will give myself that time. (While doing so, Progressives Chat will continue to publish and, by doing so, will allow for readers to comment.)

Perhaps I will take a suggestion that my Aunt, to whom I am close, would offer me: Watch some holiday movies. She would advise me to watch National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation—which, interestingly enough, was released 35 years ago on this topic’s date—starring Chevy Chase. Or I could get a hold of Young Frankenstein, released in theaters 50 years ago this month (December 1974), which is a classic comedy film directed by Mel Brooks and starring Gene Wilder. 

Whatever I will decide.

It is break time!

Happy Thanksgiving!

This week is Thanksgiving…with the holiday Thursday, November 28, 2024.

I wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving!

Beginning next week, blog topics will be on Sundays from December 1, 2024 to January 5, 2025. 

This will be for a period of six consecutive weeks.

I will be taking a break from politically-related blog topics.

I did have one more electorally-related topic, which I was going to use this week, to close out November; however, I became sick and was not up for writing and completing it for publication. (That happens.) I will, instead, have it ready in January 2025…just before Donald Trump and JD Vance begin the next administration on [Monday,] January 20, 2025.

Election 2024: Highlights

Progressives Chat will soon conclude covering outcomes for Election 2024.

I will wrap-up with such related blog topics next week.

In fact, next week will be the final week here in November 2024. (The timing will be good.)

This week, with “Highlights,” addresses the conspicuous shifts—nationwide and state to state—comparing Elections 2020 and 2024. What will also be addressed are some demographics as well as particular state counties critical to the overall outcome.

Much of this serves a purpose to further show how, in addition to election issues, we have this result.

‘ELECTIONS 2020–2024 SHIFTS’

In the United States presidential election of 2020, Joe Biden won the U.S. Popular Vote with 51.26%. Then-incumbent Donald Trump received 46.80%. 

This was a 2020 Democratic pickup for U.S. President with a U.S. Popular Vote percentage-points margin of D+4.45. (From sources I have read, a series of numbers follow the decimal point. So it actually reads as +4.45xxxxx.)

Prior to last weekend a re-elected Trump, in a 2024 Republican pickup with his defeat of U.S. vice president Kamala Harris, won the U.S. Popular Vote by just under R+2.00. All votes are not yet counted. 98% are in. (This is according to Wikipedia.)

In order to win over the U.S. Popular Vote, a 2024 Trump needed a national shift of R+4.45 to draw Even and R+4.46 to win by at least R+0.01. Not only did Trump reach that necessary level, he did so in states combining for 300 electoral votes. 

That is what the above map is about—recognition of the levels of shifts, state to state, from 2020 to 2024. 

It turns out 24 of Trump’s 31 carried states, for 219 of his eventual 312 electoral votes, were won by +10 or more percentage-points in margins. All the commonly focused “Swing States”—Republican hold of North Carolina; Republican pickups of Arizona, Nevada, Tipping-Point State Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—carried within 5 percentage points vs. national margin. (This is a typical pattern for states which are Swing or Battleground or Bellwether as they not only back a winner but also reflect, to considerable extent, the national margin in a given presidential election.)

Every state had a general 2020-to-2024 shift in the direction of Republican and Trump. This marks the first time this happened—for the opposition party having regained the White House—since the 1976 Democratic pickup of the presidency for Jimmy Carter. He followed his party’s losing 1972 nominee George McGovern’s national loss by D–23.15; shifted D+25.21; and won over the U.S. Popular Vote by D+2.06. (Note: 1980 and 2000 Republican pickup winners Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush—and 1992 Democratic pickup winner Bill Clinton—experienced shifts in their parties’ direction in 49 states.)

Among the states Trump did not shift sufficiently (to be able to win over the U.S. Popular Vote): Washington was +0.73 percentage points redder. Delaware shifted toward Trump by +4.27. 

Among the states shifted sufficiently for Trump to be able to win over the U.S. Popular Vote: It begins with New Hampshire. It became redder by +4.57. There are plenty more.

The most strongly shifted in the 2024 direction of Republican and Trump are two standout northeast states. New Jersey, the No. 11 most-populous state in the U.S., moved +10.29. The No. 4 most-populous state New York shifted with the most degree of red—by +11.52—as it moved from 2020-to-2024 Democratic margins of +23.09 to +11.57 percentage points.

While I have focused on percentage-points there are the raw-vote margins. 

In 2020, Biden won the U.S. Popular Vote by +7,059,526. Effective November 16, 2024, at 10:00 a.m. ET, Trump won the U.S. Popular Vote by +2,706,826. 

In order to shift that –7,059,526, to arrive at Even, Trump nationally shifted +6,357,718 just from the nation’s Top 10 most-populous states. (They are home to nearly 54% of the nation's citizens.) That raw-vote margins shift, for what was needed by Trump, is the equivalent of 90.05%.

The following chart shows just how these raw-vote margins shifted. (Again, this is not complete. But it isn’t difficult to understand. States with an * are 2024 Republican pickups.)

‘Highlights’: Demographics

🔴 Trendline (New): Trump made inroads with young males, yes, but also young females. In 2020, he lost the 18–29 vote nationwide by –24 percentage points. In 2024, his loss was –11 points. He moved from 36% to 43%. Source: Yes, Trump improved with young men. But he drew young women, too.

🔴 Trendline (Continuing): The votes from Blacks continue their trend. A 2008 Barack Obama, in a Democratic pickup for U.S. President, nationally carried the votes from people who are Black by +91 percentage points. (Outcome: Obama 95% vs. John McCain 4%.) Since 2012, a trend has been in progress moving away from Democrats and toward Republicans. The percentage-points margins have been +87 (in 2012); +81 (in 2016); +75 (in 2020). In 2024, this moved to +73.

🔵 Trendline (Developing): For the last, roughly, 15 years…Democrats have sold a part of their appeal as “Demographics Are Destiny,” boasting of a future with electoral fortune of dominance with non-White voters. However, in the last two elections—and this is irony—Democrats have improved, and we may have a trend, with Whites. A 2016 Hillary Clinton received 37%. A 2020 Biden received 41%. A 2024 Harris received 41%. Democratic margins have trended –20 to –17 to –16 percentage points.

🔴 Hispanics in Play: The vote from Hispanics have been assumed, by Democrats, to be safely for their party. In 2020, Joe Biden nationally won them by +33 points, with 65% vs. 32% for Trump. In 2024, that margin reduced to a Democratic hold of +6 as Harris received 52% vs. 46% for Trump. In fact, Harris lost and Trump won nationally Hispanic males with 55%.

🔵 A Realignment on Economics: In the past, households with annual incomes of $100,000 or more voted Republican. Here in 2024, that switched. They were won nationally by the Democrats and nominee Harris with 51%. This occurred while Trump nationally carried voters with annual household incomes between $30,000 to $99,999. Traditionally won by Democrats, they voted for Trump with 52%.

‘Highlights’: County Flips in Key States

In all six pickup states for Trump, there was at least one county which flipped from 2020 Democratic (Biden) to 2024 Republican (Trump). Numerous are bellwether counties to a given state. Two pivotal state bellwether counties from the Keystone State are, I estimate, bellwethers to the nation. (The best bellwether-to-the-nation county is Montana’s Blaine County with its most-populous city Chinook. Except in 1988, it has voted for all presidential winners since 1916 and including 2024.) While there are a lot more counties to list, even in states which are not bellwethers, the following stand out.

🔵 PENNSYLVANIA 🔴 Erie County (its most-populous city is Erie) and Northampton County (Bethlehem). The former has carried for statewide winners in all U.S. presidential elections, except in 1988, since 1948. (This amounts to 19 of 20 election cycles including 2024.) The latter county has carried for statewide winners in all, except 1948, since 1936. (This is 22 of 23 election cycles.)

🔵 MICHIGAN 🔴 Saginaw County (Saginaw) has voted for statewide winners—no exceptions—since 1992. Dating back to 1900, and through 2024, it matched with statewide winners in 27 of 32 elections. The county has carried roughly 85% of election cycles. Also flipped: Muskegon County (Muskegon). With exception in 2016, it has carried for all statewide winners since 1972. (So, 13 of 14 election cycles.)

🔵 WISCONSIN 🔴 Door County (Sturgeon Bay), profiled in a recent segment on CBS’s 60 Minutes, narrowly held for Harris. But Trump won a pickup of Sauk County (Baraboo). This county has also carried 9 in a row, since 1992, for presidential statewide winners. Since 1952, Sauk has carried for all statewide winners except in 1976 and 1988. (Good for 17 of 19 election cycles.)

🔵 NEVADA 🔴 Washoe County (Reno). Except in 1976 and 2016 (when it sided with popular-vote winner Hillary Clinton), the state has carried for all presidential winners since 1912. Washoe County has carried for all statewide winners, except in 1992 and 1996, since 1964. (This is 14 of 16 election cycles.)

🔵 ARIZONA 🔴 As I mentioned on Due Dissidence’s Election Night coverage: Since Arizona joined the Union and first voted in 1912, every presidential statewide winner—except 1996 Bill Clinton—carried Maricopa County (Phoenix), home to 60% the state’s population. (Reliable for 28 of 29 election cycles.)

🔵 GEORGIA 🔴 Three counties, which are not state bellwether counties (but may be trending in that direction), switched from 2020 Democratic to 2024 Republican. This occurred in Baldwin County (Milledgeville), Jefferson County (Louisville), and Washington County (Sandersville). Source: These three Georgia counties flipped blue to red in 2024.

‘Highlights’: Companion-to-Divergent States

🔵 New Mexico and Nevada 🔴 voted different from each other for only the second time in history. I identify them as Companion States. New Mexico joined the Union and first voted in 1912. Their prior disagreement was in 2000, a year with split outcomes: a Democratic hold for the U.S. Popular Vote (Al Gore, who carried New Mexico) and a Republican pickup for the Electoral College and U.S. President (George W. Bush, who flipped and carried Nevada). This split reminds me of another pair of Companion States. From 1944 to 2016, Iowa and Wisconsin voted the same in all presidential elections except in 1976 and 2004. Then in 2020, they disagreed. What explains this? Between Iowa and Wisconsin, the former realigned Republican (with 2016 pickup winner Trump) but the latter transformed into a leading bellwether state. Between New Mexico and Nevada, the former realigned Democratic (with 2008 pickup winner Barack Obama) but the latter maintained bellwether status. So, as it turns out nowadays, Iowa and Wisconsin will vote the same when a Republican wins. New Mexico and Nevada will vote the same when a Democrat wins.

A Post-Election 2024 Reaction of Satisfaction

In time for my deadline (so to speak) of Monday, November 11, 2024, there are still some election races not called. The electoral map, for Election 2024, is now complete. I predicted correctly.

Donald Trump was re-elected to a second non-consecutive term. This is the second time in history this has occurred after Grover Cleveland won his elections in 1884 and 1892. As he did in 2016, Trump`s second-term win is a Republican pickup. 

Effective Sunday, November 10, 2024 at 04:30 p.m. ET, and according to Wikipedia, Trump won the U.S. Popular Vote with 50.42% vs. Kamala Harris with 47.82%. A percentage-points margin of R+2.60. This bares in mind not all states are 100 percent in. Trump’s final percentage-points margin is likely +2 to +3.

All states are projected. Trump carried 31 states, plus Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, with an electoral-vote score of 312. (The pickups appear, on the map, in Light Shade.)

Given the fact no prior election’s electoral map has ever been later duplicated, the difference between the maps for Trump’s two terms are with Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District (2016) and Nevada (2024).

The likely Tipping-Point State is Pennsylvania. This is based on ranking all states for their percentage-points margins (whether or not carried). The Keystone State is apparently where Trump reached 270 electoral votes. It is his No. 29 best state. In fact, since 2012 Pennsylvania has ranked the Republicans’s No. 29 best state. (For Democrats, it has been their No. 22.) Republicans nowadays hit their Tipping-Point State at No. 28 or No. 29. (For Democrats, their No. 22 or No. 23.) Pennsylvania, allocated with 19 electoral votes, is Trump’s 287th electoral vote. Coming in at No. 30 is Michigan, for a cumulative 302 electoral votes. Ranking No. 31 is Wisconsin, for the final electoral-vote score of 312.

Once again, the Rust Belt Trio—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—carried for the winner. They retain their status as the nation’s Top Bellwether States. This is the fifth consecutive cycle—2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024—in which all three carried for a United States presidential election winner.

I enjoyed having participated on the Election Night coverage on Due Dissidence. I viewed it again. The purpose is to take in how well I handled myself. Perhaps I did OK. Without experience, I cannot have the polish that is there with co-hosts Keaton Weiss and Russell Dobular. But there is much to say about having experience. I contributed…and that is why I was there. And I thank this site’s regulars for having suggested I say “yes” to their invitation.

 

This week’s topic will not cover too many details of Election 2024 outcomes, as there is so much to consider, because I choose this week to focus on the overall outcome.

It is time for me to give my reaction.

I am satisfied.

I am very pleased—make that delighted—the 2024 Democrats became electorally defeated and unseated.

This overall outcome was absolutely necessary. 

(I applaud the voters in my birth city, Dearborn, for denying Harris/Democrats their votes with an effort to help make sure Team Blue would not be able to win a 2020-to-2024 hold for the state of Michigan. Due to the genocide in Gaza, voters held accountable the Joe Biden–Kamala Harris administration.)

The Democrats have become an arrogant and destructive cult. 

The last election cycle in which I voted for any person affiliated with the Democratic Party was in 2014. Election Day was Tuesday, November 4, 2014. In this current year, Election Day was held Tuesday, November 5, 2024. When that date arrived, a full ten years had passed since I last voted for a Democrat.

This is good.

I made the correct decision.

I am relieved that I have enough inner strength to have made this happen—and stick.

The Democratic Party lost me in 2016. I have at least four reasons why: 1. Rigged Primaries; 2. McCarthyism [RussiaGate]; 3. Anti-Choice [The Jab]; 4. Censorship.

It certainly does not stop there. But, really, the first listed item was already enough for me. And I take my voting personally. (How could I not?)

After viewing numerous post-election videos—such as livestreams—the one which really spoke to where I am coming from (but not being expressed by me in words appearing on this site) was on Racket News. This is from Matt Taibbi. The more astute take on all this is by co-host Walter Kirn. In the first few minutes, Kirn says of the Democratic Party [and party establishment], “But, Matt…I don’t care about their Cope. I don’t care about the Coming Lens to replace the Fascist Lens or to augment the Hitler Lens—to supplant the loss of Status Lens. Because I don’t care about anything they say. That’s the final triumph.…”