Election 2020: Final Predictions

 

“Election 2020: Final Predictions” can be summed up as follows: The Democrats Will Win the Trifecta. 

This means Democratic pickups for U.S. President—with Joe Biden unseating Donald Trump (who will become the 11th such in our nation’s history)—along with new majority control of the U.S. Senate. The U.S. House is already in the column for the Democrats, a majority pickup in the midterm elections of 2018, so it adds up. COVID–19. On the watch of Trump. Democratic Wave. A trifecta.

The top map is for U.S. President. Estimate: Joe Biden 54% vs. Donald Trump 45%. A 9-point margin in the U.S. Popular Vote. Carriage of 30 states (up from the 2016 result of 20 states), with net gains of +10 states and two congressional districts—Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District—all appearing in light blue, and a total of 413 electoral votes (up from the 2016 result of a mathematical 232 electoral votes). 

The above map is for U.S. Senate. Current status: Republican 53 vs. Democratic 47. I am predicting the Democrats will end up with 54 seats. A net gain of +7. Republicans win a pickup of normally Republican-aligned Alabama. (Hence, the use of light red.) That adjusts it to: Republican 54 vs. Democratic 46. The Democrats will flip the U.S. Senate by winning counter-pickups of +8 seats. So, that is why the net gain will be: Democratic +7. 

No map is given for U.S. House. Format here is not friendly for getting a good look at the nation’s 435 individual congressional districts. I estimate the Democrats will win a net gain of around +10 seats. (The U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. House will be close to that of U.S. President.) The state most prominent will be Texas. Donald Trump carried it, in 2016, by +800k-plus votes. For that raw-vote margin to get reduced so significantly means there will be state Republican-held seats which will flip Democratic. 

I will make one more prediction: Joe Biden will not be a good U.S. president. 

The blog topic next week, Monday, November 2, 2020, will simply be titled “2020 Election Week.” I don’t know what my availability will be at the time. But, it may be used as a thread for readers to comment on Election Day and Election Night.

Companion States

We are now two weeks from the Election Day scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020.

The Democrats, who are heavily favored to win back the presidency of the United States, have a potential to flip nearly or, in fact, ten states. (There is also potential for an eleventh.) 

The ten states, in my estimated order, are (* 2016 Republican pickup): * Michigan; * Pennsylvania; * Wisconsin (tipping-point state from 2016); Arizona; * Florida; non-state Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District; North Carolina; Georgia; * Iowa; non-state * Maine’s 2nd Congressional District; * Ohio; Texas; and, if reaching an eleventh pickup, South Carolina. (The Palmetto State, while this may be surprising to some, reportedly has its U.S. Senate race in Tossup. Source: South Carolina Senate Moves To [Tossup]. And I don’t think the winner of that race will finish dramatically higher in margin than the presidential candidate who carries the state. This is with a scenario of a same-party outcome for both races.)

A number of these would-be pickup states are not very surprising. They have a pattern: A pair here and there which have voted alike over a long period of time. I call them Companion States. This is not a thorough history (certainly to not include every state), and I am not tracing them all back to their first presidential-election year of having voted. I chose to cite a good number of states which do stand out historically. The above map shows a color-coding for particular pairs followed by, below, their details.

* * * * *

Elections 2016 and 2020—Key States

✔ Pennsylvania and Michigan. Since the Republicans first won the presidency of the United States with Abraham Lincoln, the two states have carried the same in all but three elections (1932, 1940, and 1976) since 1860. When they disagreed twice in the 1930s and 1940s, Democrat Franklin Roosevelt carried both in three of his four elections—at a time when the Democrats’ base was in the South and the Republicans’ base was in the North—with their occurrences (not voting with the winner) timed differently: Pennsylvania was one of six states which backed unseated Herbert Hoover; Michigan flipped and carried for Wendell Wilkie of neighboring Indiana. In 1976, Michigan was home state for the Republican incumbent U.S. president (who carried his home state while he became unseated)—and Pennsylvania flipped for the Democratic challenger and pickup winner. They aligned in 37 of the last 40 cycles for 92.50 percent.

✔ Wisconsin and Iowa. With exceptions in 1976 and 2004, the two states carried the same since 1944. When they voted differently in 1976 and 2004—both times Iowa carried Republican (1976 unseated Gerald Ford; 2004 re-elected George W. Bush) while Wisconsin carried Democratic (1976 pickup winner Jimmy Carter; 2004 nominee John Kerry)—their margins spread were only 2.68 and 1.05 percentage points. They aligned in 17 of the last 19 cycles for 89.47 percent. 

✔ Florida and Ohio. The latter has been on bellwether status since 1896 (not siding with the winners in 1944 and 1960). The former has been on bellwether status since 1928 (not siding with the Democratic presidential pickup winners in 1960 and 1992). The two bellwether states carried the same in all cycles with exceptions of 1944 and 1992 since 1928. They aligned in 21 of the last 23 cycles for 91.30 percent.

Those were the 2016 Republican pickups states for Donald Trump. The following pairs are 2012-to-2016 Republican holds which are susceptible to becoming 2020 Democratic pickups:

✔ Georgia and Arizona. The two states do not have an impressively long-term alignment. (Since 1984, they carried the same in 7 of 9 cycles for 77.77 percent.) But, since 1988, their margins were within five percentage points in spread in all cycles except 2000 and 2004. They carried differently in 1992 and 1996: Bill Clinton flipped Georgia in 1992; he lost it (to Bob Dole) in 1996; and, with re-election, Clinton counter-flipped Arizona (after it was in the column for unseated George Bush in 1992). Yet, in those two cycles of carrying and coloring differently, they were less than five points in spread. Since 1988, their margins spread were: 0.96, 2.54, 3.40, 5.41, 6.16, 3.28, 1.23, and 1.60 percentage points. Average, over those 8 cycles, was 3.07 percentage points in margins spread. This makes it more likely the two vote the same again here in 2020.

✔ Texas and North Carolina. The two states have voted the same, with exception of 2008, since 1972. They aligned in 11 of the last 12 cycles for 91.66 percent.

✔ Texas and South Carolina. The two states have voted the same in all of the 12 last cycles of 1972 to 2016 for 100 percent.

✔ Texas and the Carolinas. South is closer to Texas with respect for margins and rank. In 2008, 2012, and 2016, they performed 2.79, 5.31, and 5.49 points in spread. And they were two states apart in rank in 2016. (South Carolina and Texas were Donald Trump’s Nos. 20 and 22 best states, making Texas and South Carolina Hillary Clinton’s Nos. 29 and 31 best states.) And it is anticipated, for the 2020 Democrats, Texas and South Carolina will be their Nos. 30 and 31 best states. (North Carolina, which is not colored on the above map, will probably come in at No. 26. Since 1992, presidential winners carried an average 29 states with the range between 26 and 32.)

Election 2020: Non-Key States

There are other pairs of states with longterm likeness in their voting. They are not considered instrumental in deciding Election 2020. They are aligned with either major party; which is why I color-coded them in warm or cool colors; avoiding today’s red-vs.-blue paradigm but logically keeping in mind red is a warm and blue is a cool color as to slyly indicate their current party-preferred alignment. They are also worthy of note as Companion States.

✔ California and Illinois. With exception of 1960 Democratic pickup winner John Kennedy—who narrowly flipped the latter while narrowly missing the former—they aligned in 24 of the last 25 cycles (dating back to 1920) for 96 percent.

✔ New York and Massachusetts. Since 1932, with exceptions in 1948 and 1972 (when the latter was the only state to carry for losing Democrat George McGovern; the former carried Republican both times), they aligned in 20 of the last 22 cycles for 90.90 percent.

✔ Washington and Oregon. Since 1920, with exceptions of 1948 and 1968 (the former carried Democratic while the latter carried Republican both times), they aligned in 23 of the last 25 cycles for 92 percent.

✔ Virginia and Colorado. Since 1948, with exception of 1992 (when the former sided with unseated Republican incumbent George Bush while the latter flipped for Democratic challenger and pickup winner Bill Clinton), they aligned in 17 of the last 18 cycles for 94.44 percent.

✔ Tennessee and Kentucky. The former (a little more so than the latter) was a bellwether state, siding with all but two presidential winners (in 1924 and 1960), from 1912 to 2004. Since 1900, with exceptions of 1920, 1924, and 1952, they aligned in 27 of the last 30 cycles for 90 percent.

✔ Indiana and Missouri. Like the above Georgia and Arizona, this pair does not have a longterm likeness. But, beginning in 2008, even in that Democratic pickup year when they carried differently (Indiana was a Democratic pickup for Barack Obama while Missouri lost its bellwether status siding with losing Republican John McCain), their margins spread were incredibly close to each other: 1.16, 0.84, and 0.50.

✔ Alabama and Mississippi. Since their first vote in 1820, the two disagreed only in 1840 and 1960. They seceded from the Union and did not vote in 1864 (Alabama) and 1868 (Mississippi, both elections). Discounting the two cycles, and also setting aside 1960 (when Harry Byrd, not an official candidate, won the popular vote in Mississippi), they aligned in 46 of 47 cycles for 97.87 percent.

✔ Nevada and New Mexico. Since the latter joined the union and first voted in 1912, they disagreed only in 2000 (when New Mexico barely carried for U.S. Popular Vote winner Al Gore and Nevada barely flipped and carried for Republican pickup winner George W. Bush). They aligned in 26 of the last 27 cycles for 96.29 percent.

✔ Hawaii and Rhode Island. Since the former joined the union and voted for the first time in 1960, they aligned in all of the last 15 cycles—Democratic every time except for the 49-state re-elections of 1972 Richard Nixon and 1984 Ronald Reagan—for 100 percent.

On the Ballot

In late-September 2020, I received my general-election ballot, with respect to my specific location of residence, in my home state of Michigan. 

On the Ballot, for U.S. President, are: Democrat Joe Biden; Republican incumbent Donald Trump; Libertarian Jo Jorgensen; U.S. Taxpayers’s Don Blankenship; Green’s Howie Hawkins; and Natural Law’s Rocky De La Fuente. (For the first time that I can remember, during my adult life, the Democrats are on the first line; it used to be the Republicans. I mentioned them in their listed order.)

There is a line below those listed that is blank. That would be for Write-In.

There is nothing for, say, Party of Socialism and Liberation nominee Gloria La Riva. (Her website says she is on the ballot in 15 states and is a Write-In candidate in 13, neither of which applies to Michigan. Source: Gloria La Riva.)

With three weeks until the scheduled date of the general election, which is Tuesday, November 3, 2020, I don’t know exactly for whom I will vote. I don’t know, for certain, if I will vote. I do know that none of those listed for U.S. President will receive my vote. This especially means I will not vote for either of the two major U.S. political parties—neither represents me—in any race in which they are On the Ballot.

Due to COVID–19, I consider 2020 to be a Lost Year.

This Lost Year is also greatly applicable to the 2020 United States presidential election.

Regarding Donald Trump with COVID–19…

Last Friday [October 2, 2020], news hit that U.S. president Donald Trump has been diagnosed with COVID–19. (The above picture is Trump, from last Friday, have been taken by helicopter to Walter Reed Medical Center in Bethesda, Maryland.)

Melania Trump has also received the diagnosis.

Three Republican U.S. senators were also diagnosed: Utah’s Mike Lee, Wisconsin’s Ron Johnson and, as he is also on the 2020 schedule for possible re-election, North Carolina’s Thom Tillis.

Add to that list former New Jersey governor Chris Christie.

Same with Trump’s counselor to the president Kellyanne Conway.

There may be more to come. 

Progressives Chat readers are well-aware.

My reaction is that I simply wish that COVID–19 never happened in the first place. I do not want anyone getting it. I certainly never did. So, I am sorry this has happened to anyone. Generally, I am sorry.

I am not surprised. 

With an election coming up, four weeks from now, Trump has been rolling the dice on this pandemic crisis with an effort to electorally save himself and possibly eke out a bare re-election. And he basically told the nation’s people it isn’t so bad. That there is overreaction. Now, Trump has it.

Part of the reason why I am not overcome with emotion for Trump and these Republicans—and why I would not feel greatly upset if it were so with Joe Biden and the likewise power players in the Democratic Party—is that they will be taken care of by The People. Both Trump and Biden—and their political parties—have in common making sure The People are not taken care of in this pandemic with Medicare for All. (Now, more than ever before, we need Medicare for All.) So, they are protected. We are not.

I did not timely respond, in the Comments section from last Friday, because I felt no urgency to do so. We are in a period where the presidency of the United States—really, who and what represents in U.S. politics—is at an absolute low. So, I don’t feel compelled to become greatly concerned for them.

When the Democrats Step In It…They ‘Step’ In It

The September 18, 2020 death of U.S. Supreme Court justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, from cancer at age 87, has the Democrats in the position of supposedly trying to stop the Republicans—who hold majority control of the U.S. Senate—from getting through U.S. president Donald Trump’s nominated replacement, from the Seventh Circuit of Court Appeals and South Bend, Indiana, Amy Coney Barrett.

For those who are perhaps impressionable, this is a big election issue. 

I don’t think it is. 

COVID–19 is the top issue. 

Contrary to what the Democrats routinely pedal, the U.S. Supreme Court is not most urgent in the minds of all voters. 

Here in 2020, surviving COVID–19 has most everyone concerned and focused.

I find myself not giving a shit about the U.S. Supreme Court. There is no reason. The Democrats don’t care. Yes, they give lip service to caring. They use bringing up the fate of the Supreme Court to motivate fearful people—those who normally lean to their so-called political party—to vote for them in presidential elections. It is tied in with their contrived message, “This is the most important election of our lifetime,” as the Democrats promised in 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016 and, as it is pending, 2020.

I harken back to 2009 or 2010. This was the first year or so of the presidency of Barack Obama. The Democrats won their presidential pickup, with Obama, in 2008. During that period, Ruth Bader Ginsburg had already been diagnosed with cancer. One comment came from Jim Bunning. This was the former MLB pitcher who became a politician and a Republican U.S. senator from Kentucky. Bunning was told by a future majority leader and fellow Kentuckian Mitch McConnell to not run for possible re-election, in 2010, because Bunning barely prevailed in 2004 and was personally unpopular in their state. Bunning opted for retirement. His successor turned out to be Rand Paul. While he was still in the U.S. Senate, Bunning speculated that Ginsburg would step down from the U.S. Supreme Court because she was struggling to stay alive. Well, he was wrong on two counts: She did not step down. And her struggle to stay alive resulted in Ginsburg having outlived Bunning (who died in 2017). But there was some wisdom in what was mentioned by Bunning: Ginsburg should have stepped down.

Had Ruth Bader Ginsburg stepped down a good ten years ago, during the presidency of Barack Obama, and while the Democrats held majorities in both houses of Congress (the Republicans flipped the U.S. Senate with the midterm elections of 2014), the Democrats would not be in their position here in 2020.

I don’t take pleasure in the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg. (Certainly not. Not at all.)

I don’t sympathize with the Democrats. (Certainly not this so-called political party in its current form.)

The Democrats are, No. 1, screwing over the actual left of this country.

The Democrats are also, No. 2, screwing over themselves with their sheer political stupidity with this 2010-vs-2020 example of Ruth Bader Ginsburg. 

The Democrats are, No. 3, wanting people who would normally lean toward them to “Vote Blue No Matter Who” after the corrupt, corporate party establishment—especially its previous U.S. president—screwed them once again with rigging the 2020 presidential nomination for a candidate who opposes [the actual progressives’] agenda.

I don’t think this is difficult to understand.

The main differences between the Republican and the Democratic parties are their brands.

The key difference between the Republicans and the Democrats, for how they operate, is this simple: The Republicans stab you in your gut. The Democrats stab you in your back.

What is amusing about this situation is a reminder, for those who need it, and for those who don’t want to be reminded, that When the Democrats Step In It…They Step In It.

An Anniversary with Change

This Friday, September 25, 2020, marks the three-year anniversary of Progressives Chat.

This blog site was created, and with the help of cathyx, in the aftermath of The Far Left Chat having ended at some point during September 2017.

In the early period of Progressives Chat, I published blog topics five days per week, which included ones on Fridays titled “Open Weekend.”

I later reduced blog topics to three days per week.

Afterward, I brought them down to two days per week.

Last month, it was suggested by cathyx—and the comment received a consensus of Likes—that publishing a blog topic [thread] just once per week may be better for Progressives Chat.

I agree.

In fact, I thought of making this change effective with the start of 2021. (That would have been the date of January 4, 2021.) But, timing it with the beginning of this month, September 2020, also works with respect to this anniversary.

A concern I did have was a second issue, happening in a given week, which may be necessary for its own blog topic. I realize the solution is to maintain one thread which is in effect for the period of one week. And if anything more comes up, I will revise that applicable week’s blog topic by adding an entry. In such case, I will note the date and time of an addition.

The weeklong blog topics from Mondays, August 31 as well as September 7 and 14, 2020 should be considered a segue to making this move. August 31 (“Election 2020: Two Months Out”) was timed closely with both its topic as well as the beginning of September and Labor Day on September 7, 2020. (Memorial Day and Labor Day have people normally often thinking of Holiday Weekends. The extended time. For those who still get that.) And then there was last week’s blog topic—on the television-premiere anniversaries of two classic sitcoms (CBS’s The Mary Tyler Moore Show and NBC’s The Golden Girls)—to further help with the timing of this “An Anniversary with Change” for Progressives Chat.

We can take this current month, September 2020, and note it as the beginning of Progressives Chat having switched to a regular schedule of one blog topic thread per week.

The regular posting schedule will continue to be on Mondays at 06:00 a.m. ET. 

‘Mary Tyler Moore’ and ‘Golden Girls’

It was 50 years ago this week which marked the premiere of the groundbreaking CBS comedy series The Mary Tyler Moore Show. 

Saturday, September 19, 1970.

It was 35 years ago on this blog’s publishing date which marked the debut of another timely situation comedy series, NBC’s The Golden Girls. 

Saturday, September 14, 1985.

I was born in 1971. I could not at such a young age watch The Mary Tyler Moore Show, with it being able to resonate for me, because I was too young. It went off the air in 1977. So, I played some catchup on TBS, in 1985, and was more focused when Nickelodeon’s Nick at Nite premiered the classic in 1992.

I was there for The Golden Girls when it premiered. I was 14. I was newly in high school. The series carried for me—meaning, I followed it regularly—throughout the rest of those years.

The Mary Tyler Moore Show ran seven seasons, with its finale on March 19, 1977.

The Golden Girls also ran seven years, with its finale on May 9, 1992, before CBS picked it up, re-titled it The Golden Palace, sans one of its stars, and broadcast it during the 1992–93 season.

They were both socially relevant. 

Mary Richards, a competent single woman of age 30, found a career and a lively personal life which included important friendships in 1970s Minneapolis, Minnesota. 

The three females leads—divorcée Dorothy Zbornak and widows Rose Nylund and Blanche Deveraux; along Dorothy’s 80-year-old widowed mother Sophia Petrillo—shared living expenses in a house in 1980s Miami, Florida.

The casts were remarkable. Mary Tyler Moore—along with the star herself—was aided by superb cast mates Edward Asner, Valerie Harper, Gavin MacLeod, Ted Knight, Cloris Leachman, John Amos, Georgia Engel, and Betty White. And White was likewise golden on that other Golden sitcom, with her and fellow leads Beatrice Arthur and Rue McClanahan backed in support by a sublime Estelle Getty.

Both series won their share of Emmys, with The Mary Tyler Moore Show winning the top Emmy for Outstanding Comedy Series in each of its last three seasons (1975, 1976, and 1977) and The Golden Girls winning that top prize in each of its first two seasons (1986 and 1987).

I nowadays don’t watch the current era’s television comedies, certainly not as much as I did in the past, because I really don’t make a point of following too many television series from any genre. And, frankly, I am not young. I like not giving so much of my time to watching many television series on a regular basis. These two series brought intelligence to the genre. They elevated the medium.

Here are five memorable episodes each from both series (listed in the order of their broadcast):

The Mary Tyler Moore Show

“Love Is All Around [‘Pilot’]” (S01E01; 09.19.1970)—Mary’s move to Minneapolis, Minnesota includes apparent obstacles in a cranky new boss, Lou, and a combatant neighbor, Rhoda.

“The Lou and Edie Story” (S04E04; 10.06.1973)—Lou is devastated as his marriage to Edie (guest star Priscilla Morrill) is ending and, despite his efforts, she wants a separation.

“Will Mary Richards Go to Jail?” (S05E01; 09.14.1974)—Mary has an anonymous source she refuses to reveal.

📺 “Chuckles Bites the Dust” (S06E07; 10.25.1975)—After WJM’s Chuckles the Clown is killed in a strange accident, Mary is appalled by the behavior of her co-workers.

“The Last Show” (S07E24; 03.19.1977)—With new management, everyone’s job is on the line. And the overall outcomes are sure to change the lives of employees Mary, Lou, Murray, Ted, and Sue Ann.

The Golden Girls

“The Engagement [‘Pilot’]” (S01E01; 09.14.1985)—Home owner Blanche rushes to marry a man she shouldn’t trust, and Dorothy juggles between her mother Sophia’s arrival and Rose protecting Blanche.

“A Little Romance” (S01E12; 12.07.1985)—Rose is challenged by prejudice in her relationship with a short and kind man (guest star Brent Collins).

“Isn’t It Romantic?” (S02E05; 11.08.1986)—Following the arrival of Dorothy’s recently widowed friend, Jean (guest star Lois Nettleton), a complication happens.

📺 “Twas the Nightmare Before Christmas” (S02E11; 12.20.1986)—The Girls have plans to go away for Christmas; they exchange gifts (most memorable comes from Blanche); and they suffer mishaps. 

“Old Friends” (S03E01; 09.19.1987)—A new and unexpected friendship develops between Sophia and a likewise blunt Alvin (guest star Joe Seneca).

Here are two videos—one scene each—from The Mary Tyler Moore Show and The Golden Girls: