Prediction: Nomination for Abdul El–Sayed

I am predicting, with next Tuesday’s [August 4, 2026] primaries in my home state, the 2026 Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate from Michigan will be won by Abdul El–Sayed.

On [Monday,] July 27, 2026, a final primary debate was held between El–Sayed and Haley Stevens.

Over the last several days, and given Mallory McMorrow dropped out July 5 (a week after early-voter ballots were mailed), and that El–Sayed has been leading nearly every poll since May, it looks like last-minute voters are rallying for El–Sayed.

I have seen polls suggesting double-digit percentage-points margins—El–Sayed over Stevens—such as +11, +14, +15, +16, and +17.

What I do not know, and will find out afterward, are the total votes cast.

I suspect there will be, expressed in hundreds of thousands, about 600,000 votes cast.

I sense El–Sayed will win statewide by a raw-votes margin of roughly +100,000 … but it may end up closer to +125,000. What would be extraordinary is, say, +150,000.

I decided to look at past primary outcomes, for U.S. Senate, in Michigan. 

This was with a focus on those who won first-term elections. 

I traced back to the 1910s, the decade of the 17th Amendment (direct elections of U.S. senators by states’s voters), and found something interesting.

Two such primaries, for an eventual first-term general-election winner, were won by single-digit percentage-points margins.

In 1936—re-election to a second term for Democratic incumbent U.S. president Franklin Roosevelt (he carried 46 of 48 states)—a switch occurred in Michigan’s U.S. Senate election from Republican to Democratic for Prentiss M. Brown. In the primary, Brown won a multi-person race with 36.32% vs. 34.16% for top runner-up Louis B. Ward. Margin: Brown +2.16 percentage points.

The 1994 United States midterm elections was a Republican wave—on the watch of Democratic incumbent U.S. president Bill Clinton—in which both houses of Congress switched to the Republicans. Michigan’s U.S. Senate election was a Republican pickup for Spencer Abraham. In the primary, Abraham won with 51.95% vs. 48.02% for Ronna Romney (ex-sister-in-law to Mitt). Margin: Abraham +3.93 percentage points.

For those first-term election winners who won their primaries by double digits, the lowest was for Democratic politician Donald Riegle Jr., who died April 24, 2026 at age 88, back in 1976. Riegle received 44.31%, in a multi-person race, vs. 28.34% for top runner-up Richard H. Austin. Margin: Riegle +15.97 percentage points.

A double-digit, percentage-points margin win would fall in line with the majority of past outcomes, in this 2026 Democratic primary for U.S. Senate.

I am not worried about nailing down the numbers. What I hope for is the rock-solid victory. I especially want Metro Detroit tri-county areas to carry. They are home to nearly 1 of every 3 people who live in Michigan. So, I hope Wayne, Oakland, and Macomb counties will carry for El–Sayed. 

May it be a sweepingly sweet victory for Abdul El–Sayed.

I will leave this with a video clip, below, from Due Dissidence. It was Tuesday, June 23, 2026. New York held its primaries. I was a guest on the livestream. Just after those high-profile congressional primaries were called, I was asked to comment. I offered a particular insight which relates to this blog topic.

Note: The next blog topic will publish on my birthday, Sunday, August 16, 2026.

The 2026 United States Midterm Elections: Three Months Out

The 2026 United States midterm elections will be held in three months.

Scheduled date is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

Effective Monday. August 1, 2026, my sense is that the 2026 Democrats will win majority-control pickups for both houses of Congress…as well as a pickup for a majority number of U.S. Governors.

Since the 17th Amendment, which is direct elections of United States senators by states’s citizens, dates back to the 1910s…there were five United States midterm elections in which the White House opposition party won majority-control pickups for U.S. House and U.S. Senate in the same cycle. In those same midterm cycles, the overall majority for U.S. Governors also switched to the White House opposition party. These occurred in 1918, 1946, 1954, 1994, and 2006. 

The above chart shows, from those five such midterm elections outcomes, the averages of seats which became established by the White House opposition party.

The most recent election cycles have the 2026 Democrats in an advantageous position when given their minority strength. It is like they arrived at a citizen’s front door, will go ahead and ring the bell, and more than enough citizens will answer.

Consider:

🇺🇸 ELECTION 2024: U.S. HOUSE 🇺🇸 Republicans 220 • Democrats 215

🇺🇸 ELECTION 2024: U.S. SENATE 🇺🇸 Republicans 53 • Democrats 47

🇺🇸 ELECTION 2025: U.S. GOVERNORS 🇺🇸 Republicans 26 • Democrats 24

In August, three months from the general election, I will have more to say in a new topic.

Six months out: It looks like a Blue-Enough Wave is on the way.

Flashback 2016: Ds’s Rigged Primary

Wednesday, July 22, 2026 will be the 10th anniversary of the Wikileaks’s report about the Democratic National Committee having rigged their 2016 primary—and, ultimately—nomination for Hillary Clinton.

This was also a 2016 Democratic National Committee having rigged their 2016 primary against Bernie Sanders.

When that happened…it was not just a rigging against Sanders but also against every person who voted the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination for the U.S senator from Vermont.

After coming across the report, and absorbing all the information I took in and processed, I made a decision.

I refrained in the general election of 2016 from voting for any person affiliated with the Democratic Party.

To this day, I have not voted in a general election for any person affiliated with the Democratic Party.

Flashback 1976: North Fox Island of Child Sexual Crime

Before there was Jeffrey Epstein, there was the July 1976 report of Child Sexual Crimes on North Fox Island in Michigan.

This was owned by Francis Shelden (1928–1996), an entrepreneur and descendant to a former governor of Michigan, which violated children.

Back in that time, parents were more trusting. So why would it be a problem, given what opportunity, to send your child (usually a son), for away from home to be with a man, not married or in a relationship and also childless, who really likes hanging around children?

As described by Wikipedia, “Brother Paul's Children's Mission was an organization identified in July 1976 as a front for a child pornography ring operating out of North Fox Island in Lake Michigan. It was incorporated on June 18, 1975, and was advertised as an organization which "provide[d] services to children with reading problems, minor emotional counseling, and classes in physical fitness". During paid sessions on the island, boys would be filmed engaging in sex acts with each other and adults, and were occasionally prostituted to the Mission's wealthiest customers.”

For more on this case:

Wikipedia — Brother Paul's Children's Mission

From WDIV Ch. 04 (NBC-affiliated station in Detroit, Michigan) was this 2019 special on the “Oakland County Child Killer” (February 1976–March 1977) serial murder case. It included a segment on the crimes on North Fox Island which, on the historic timeline, had some overlap with the murders.

July 2026: Not a Good Start

July 2026 was not a good start.

Not for me.

I am not alone.

My area Detroit, Michigan closed out June and began July 2026 with near-100 degrees in temperatures. “Extreme Heat Warning.”

Friday, July 3, 2026—say, during the hour of 06:00 p.m. ET—delivered us storms which included up to 75 miles per hour in some areas. Lots of damage. (Including, as seen in the above picture, some trees.) Massive numbers of power outages. Thankfully, this did not include me. But as a subscriber of Comcast, my Internet was out for three days.

This is why this first of two blog topics, for July 2026, arrives late.

I was going to have a topic, related to the “insurgents” in recent Democratic primaries (New York on Tuesday, June 23, 2026; Colorado on Tuesday, June 30, 2026), but then we were hit with a scandal involving Graham Platner, the 2026 Democratic U.S. Senate nominee from Maine, and the dropout of Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Mallory McMorrow from Michgan. A bit of a ride. And, for me, one I did not want to take given the stressful experiences this first week of July 2026.

‘Israel is an irrational war machine’

Jamarl Thomas recently welcomed Garland Nixon as his guest.

In this video, published to YouTube on Wednesday, July 8, 2026, Nixon perhaps astutely described what has become of the U.S.’s partner under its prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.

The running time is just over 35 minutes.

The next blog topic will be published on Monday, July 20, 2026.

Mamdani. Platner. El–Sayed.

In the Democratic Party, three men have been greeted with opposition.

From Democrats.

But also from the supposed mainstream.

One of these men, beginning this past January 2026, is in office.

I think, without being overconfident, the other two men will arrive next year, in January 2027.

Here is a summary of the three gentlemen, seen above from left to right, for the 2025 and 2026 election cycles.

🔵 Zohran Mamdani. Born October 18, 1991, in Kampala, Uganda, Mamdani defeated for nomination numerous opponents which included former New York governor Andrèw Cuomo. In the general election of November 4, 2025, Mamdani defeated then-Independent Cuomo by +9.46 percentage points, carrying both male and female voters, and is now the 112th mayor of New York, New York.

🔵 Graham Platner. Born September 1, 1984, in Blue Hill, Maine, on June 9, 2026, Platner defeated Maine governor Janet Mills for the 2026 Democratic nomination for United States Senate from Maine. Platner will face, in the general election, five-term Republican incumbent Susan Collins. She was first elected in 1996. But, after winning a fourth-term re-election in 2014 by a stunning +36.96 percentage points, she won her fifth term in 2020 by +8.59. What happened was Maine’s 1st Congressional District (home of Cumberland County which is location for Portland)—which nowadays delivers margins, for U.S. President, like California—became a Democratic pickup for losing nominee Sara Gideon. As a state, Maine realigned Democratic for U.S. President, with Bill Clinton, in 1992. With exceptions in 1912 and 1968. Maine has voted the same as Vermont—which ranked as the Democrats’s No. 1 best state for U.S. President in 2020 and 2024 (while California was their No. 5)—since the year 1856. This state has Angus King, an independent who caucuses with the Democrats, in one seat. Like West Virginia—which realigned in 2000 to the Republicans, for U.S. President (nowadays their No. 2 best state), and both its U.S. Senate seats are now with the GOP—the time has come for the Democrats to have both U.S. Senate seats from Maine.

🔵 Abdul El–Sayed. Born October 31, 1984, in Detroit, Michigan, and with current base in Ann Arbor, the state holds its primaries on August 4, 2026. His competition for the 2026 Democratic nomination for United States Senate from Michigan are U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens (D–Michigan #11) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D–Michigan #08). El–Sayed is leading polls, for the most part, but the establishment—including a most recent endorsement by the Democrats’s No. 1 U.S. Senate leader Chuck Schumer—prefer Stevens. (We are now being inundated with Stevens-helped-Obama-save-the-Auto-Industry ads which are likely an extension from the Israel Lobby.) No matter…leading bellwether Michigan—which, along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (neither has a 2026 U.S. Senate race), now holds the longest active streak carrying for U.S. presidential election winners (five consecutive cycles since and including 2008)—voters have not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since 1994. That was the Republican midterm election wave, on the watch of then-Democratic incumbent U.S. president Clinton, in which both houses of Congress flipped Republican. Last year a Republican won a U.S. Senate seat in Michigan, timed with a presidential election, dates back to 1972. That was re-election, to the tune of 49 states, for then-incumbent Richard Nixon. I consider this state’s 2026 U.S. Senate election a Likely Democratic Hold.

I will be keeping track of the Michigan race over the next seven weeks through Primary Day.

Flashback 1976: Martha Mitchell Dies

Martha Mitchell died at age 57 on [Monday,] May 31, 1976.

The 50th anniversary of her death has just passed.

Martha was a socialite who was also, when she died, the wife of John Mitchell.

John was United States attorney general in the administration of 37th U.S. president Richard Nixon.

Martha Mitchell, born September 2, 1918 in Pine Bluff, Arkansas, was an outspoken and controversial figure who was a big pain to Nixon. Martha became especially a problem for Nixon during the Watergate scandal—she was kidnapped in that same month as the break-in during June 1972—which eventually brought down Nixon’s presidency with his resignation in 1974.

Massie

The state of Kentucky will hold primaries next week.

Tuesday, May 19, 2026.

I am interested in the 2026 Republican primary for U.S. House from Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District.

This area includes eastern parts of Louisville.

I support the re-election bid for Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Thomas Massie.

He has angered Republican incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump.

He has especially angered zionists such as Marian Adelson—who was the key funder for the 2024 campaign for Trump—and other billionaire zionists.

Recruited as a primary challenger to Massie is an ex-Democrat and a Never Trump figure, Ed Gallrein.

Latest polls leave me not choosing to predict the winner for this nomination.

Given the billions being spent on this primary race, by the zionist billionaires, and whatever level of influence by the low-approval puppet in the Oval Office, this is important.