30th Anniversary • Anita Baker’s ‘Giving You the Best That I Got’

This past Monday [September 24, 2018], I mentioned the one-year anniversary of Progressives Chat. That was exactly one year this past Tuesday [September 25]. Today [Thursday, September 27] is the 30th anniversary of the release of Anita Baker’s “Giving You the Best That I Got.”

This is a personal thing with me because of timing. 30 years ago, this month, I entered my senior year in high school with the 1988–89 season. When one thinks back to some particular points in time, one can also think about the music from that period.

I took an immediate liking to Anita Baker with her 1986 album Rapture. It included memorable songs “Sweet Love,” “Caught Up in the Rapture,” and “Same Ole Love (365 Days a Year).” Her follow-up, Giving You the Best That I Got, included “Just Because,” “Good Love,” and the LP’s title track. While “Sweet Love” won Baker the 1986 Grammys for R&B Song, the entire LP won her Best Female R&B Vocal Performance, and she repeated winning those same categories, for the year 1988, for “Giving You the Best That I Got.” She went further than that. Heading toward those 1988 Grammys, which were broadcast February 22, 1989, it was obvious Bobby McFerrin’s “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” and Tracy Chapman’s “Fast Car” were frontrunners for slots in Record of the Year and Song of the Year. As expected, they landed nominations. But, only one more recording also received nominations for both prizes. It was “Giving You the Best That I Got.” (The other four combined slots for Record and Song went to separate titles.) Credit for writing this tune, along with Baker, also goes to Randy Holland and Skip Scarborough. (Both categories were won by McFerrin.) And I will share the song’s video posted above.

Relating this to politics: I had this unintentionally funny conversation with another person in 2016. As I was mentioning my disgust for David Brock, I asked the person, who was a supporter of Hillary Clinton, “Doesn’t it bother you that Hillary Clinton hired for her campaign the man who smeared Anita Baker in the early-1990s?” I meant to say Anita Hill. I tripped. And it was too late. I walked right into the following response: “He was…Giving Her the Best That He’s Got.”

First Anniversary for ‘Progressives Chat’

Hello, Readers!

Tuesday [September 25, 2018] marks one year from the first official blog entry of Progressives Chat.

So, 52 weeks have passed.

Thank you to readers and participating commenters for this site where we can loosely post about whatever springs to mind and is especially relevant.

—Candy83

Coming Up: U.S. Governors

2018 Gubernatorial Elections: With a national shift for the Democrats, these are the competitive states.

The 2018 midterm elections includes 36 gubernatorial elections. So, 72 percent of the nation’s states will have governor races. From that, 9 of the Top 10 populous states are on the schedule. The exception is North Carolina, on the schedule in leap/presidential years, and a Democratic pickup in 2016. The Democrats have 3 of the other Top 10: California, New York, and Pennsylvania. For the 14 states not on the schedule, they are equally 7 each in the Republican and Democratic columns. (Republicans have 33 to the 16 governorships with the Democrats.) On the maps, that *7 is noted by 270 to Win.

If 2018 turns out to be a national wave of a midterm elections for the Democrats, off Republican incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump, that national wave is not going to avoid flipping a number of Republican-held governorships to Democratic. It wouldn’t surprise me, for example, if all six of Trump’s 2016 Republican pickup states—Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—end up, in January 2019, with Democratic governors. (Pennsylvania delivered a Democratic pickup on that count in 2014 with Tom Wolf.)

The above map leaves beige (which would normally be yellow) for states in position to potentially flip. Alaska is independent and favored to flip Republican. But, the Democrats, after winning a 2017 pickup of New Jersey, have 16 and need a net gain of +10 to win over a new majority.

If the 2018 Democrats succeed, here is my estimated order of likely flips:

(17) Illinois

(18) New Mexico

(19) Michigan

(20) Maine

(21) Nevada

(22) Florida

(23) Wisconsin

(24) Ohio

(25) Iowa

(26) Georgia — Tipping Point State

(27) Kansas

(28) Arizona
(29) Oklahoma

For No. 30, that is between Tennessee and Maryland; but, they are highly likely to end up Republican holds. For the 2018 Democrats to flip one or both of them, they would likely have to have a midterm elections in which the Republicans are being more thoroughly repudiated.

Since following the 1994 midterm elections, when Republicans (off Democratic incumbent U.S. president Bill Clinton) flipped new majorities of the U.S. House, U.S. Senate, and the nation’s governorships, the party which has had the majority in the U.S. House also held the majority of the nation’s governorships. The latest polls suggest that pattern will get broken; that the Democrats will not flip a sufficient number. But, it is a pattern effective since 1995. And, depending on the next month or so, and Election Night, it could end up held.

In 2014, the Republicans won the U.S. Popular Vote, for U.S. Governors, by +4.09. The result: Republicans 50.33% vs. Democrats 46.24%. 

Here was the list, in descending order, by their margins (* party pickup):

2014 GOVERNOR — REPUBLICAN (24)
• Tennessee (Bill Haslam, term-limited) +47.47
• Nevada (Brian Sandoval, term-limited) +46.70
• South Dakota (Dennis Daugaard, term-limited) +45.04
• Ohio (John Kasich, term-limited) +33.61
• Wyoming (Matt Mead, term-limited) +32.14
• Alabama (Robert J. Bentley, resigned; 2018 nominee: Kay Ivey) +27.32
• Iowa (Terry Branstadt, in President Trump’s administration; 2018 nominee: Kim Reynolds) +21.72
• Texas (Greg Abbott) +20.37
• Nebraska (Pete Ricketts) +17.92
• Oklahoma (Mary Fallin, term-limited) +14.80
• South Carolina (Nikki Haley, in President Trump’s administration; 2018 nominee; Harry McMaster) +14.48
• New Mexico (Susana Martinez, term-limited) +14.44
• Idaho (Butch Otter, term-limited) +13.97
• Arizona (Doug Ducey) +11.80
• * Arkansas (Asa Hutchison) +11.25
• Georgia (Nathan Deal, term-limited) +7.86
• Wisconsin (Scott Walker) +5.67
• Maine (Paul LePage, term-limited) +4.81

[U.S. Popular Vote: +4.09]

• (26) Michigan (Rick Snyder, term-limited) +4.06 — Tipping Point!

• (27) * Illinois (Bruce Rauner) +3.91
• (28) * Maryland (Larry Hogan) +3.78
• (29) Kansas (Sam Brownback, in Trump’s administration; 2018 nominee: Kris Kobach) +3.69
• (30) * Massachusetts (Charlie Baker) +1.86
• (31) Florida (Rick Scott, term-limited) +1.07

2016 GOVERNOR — REPUBLICAN (02) — Two-Year Term
• * Vermont (Phil Scott) +8.74
• * New Hampshire (Chris Sununu) +2.27

2014 GOVERNOR — INDEPENDENT (01)
• * Alaska (Bill Walker) +2.22

2014 GOVERNOR — DEMOCRATIC (09)
• California (Jerry Brown, term-limited) +19.94
• New York (Andrew Cuomo) +13.95
• Hawaii (David Ige) +12.37
• * Pennsylvania (Tom Wolf) +9.86
• Minnesota (Mark Dayton, term-limited) +5.56
• Oregon (Kate Brown) +4.76
• * Rhode Island (Gina Raimondo) +4.46
• Colorado (John Hickenlooper, term-limited) +3.35
• Connecticut (Dan Malloy, not running; 2018 nominee: Ned Lamont) +2.57

The last three gubernatorial majorities pickups were in 1994 (Republican, off Democratic president Bill Clinton); 2006 (Democratic, off Republican president George W. Bush); and 2010 (Republican, off Democratic president Barack Obama). The national shifts in those elections, compared four years earlier, were:

• 1990 to 1994 Shift: R+17.12 divided by +11 = 1.55 seat gains with each nationally shifted percentage point
• 2002 to 2006 Shift: D+11.16 divided by +6 = 1.86 seat gains with each nationally shifted percentage point
• 2006 to 2010 Shift: R+6.84 divided by +6 = 1.14 seat gains with each nationally shifted percentage point

It is not easy to nail down. But, I figure, taking averages from those three, about +1.51 governorships may be gained with each nationally shifted percentage point for the Democrats. (It may be a little less.)

Here is a guide:

The National Margin (after –04.09) = Yielded Pickups (increments +xx.09 x 1.51 avg.)

• R+3 = +1 [seat gains]
• R+2 = +2 to +3
• R+1 = +4
• D+0 = +5 to +6
• D+1 = +7
• D+2 = +8 to +9
• D+3 = +10 — Tipping Point!
• D+4 = +11 to +12
• D+5 = +13
• D+6 = +14 to +15

That is based on the U.S. House polls showing a potential 2016-to-2018 national shift of around +10, for the Democrats, and if U.S. Governors, based on their 2014 U.S. Popular Vote, were to also shift as much as +10 in the direction of the Democrats.

While I have +3 as the tipping point, in my estimate, I keep in mind that the number of governorships gained with each nationally shifted percentage point may be more like +1.33. So, a national margin of +4 would be even more assured the 2018 Democrats would win over a new majority of the nation’s governorships? 

It is really strange to see any polls, even now, tell me only the states listed between Nos. 17 to 20 are poised to flip—leaving the rest as tossups—when the point of a midterm elections wave is that it does not pertain to only one level of office. (Some have even Nos. 19 and 20 as tossups.)

It is also not sensible to think that Democrats may not flip beyond +4 when there is a constant showing that Republican-held states, particularly those that were 2014 Republican holds, are apparently underperforming their 2014-to-2018 margins in the polls. (Tennessee, in particular, and with connection to its open U.S. Senate election, is a conspicuous underperformance for Republicans. Its governorship will not be won, by a 2018 Republican, with that 2014 margin of +47.47.) 

Another Perspective

With 9 of the Top 10 populous states on the schedule, the 2014-to-2018 margins shifts in California, Texas, Florida (if it gets flipped), New York, Illinois (which will get flipped), Pennsylvania, Ohio (even if it doesn't get flipped), Georgia (even if it doesn’t get flipped), and Michigan (which will get flipped) will go in the direction of the Democrats. 

You can take that to nearly all of the populous states which rank between Nos. 11 to 20, which also have on the schedule: Arizona, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. These Democratic shifts were also applicable to both Nos. 11 and 12 New Jersey and Virginia in 2017. (That is, the 2013-to-2017 margins shift from those states—with New Jersey having flipped from 2013 Republican to 2017 Democratic.) Three such Top 20 populous states—Washington, Indiana, and Missouri—are also not on the schedule for 2018. (Their elections are in leap/presidential years.) So, with 14 of the Top 20 populous states scheduled for 2018, just two of have a strong chance to shift more Republican: Massachusetts and Maryland. And those states are in that position because they were 2014 Republican pickups whose incumbent governors, Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan, are polling as popular. (By the way: In between 66 and 70 percent of the nation’s people reside in a Top 20 state.)

It is highly likely the Democrats will win a 2018 pickup of the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. Governor. One reason, in addition to Republican-held states underperforming, is that I would anticipate the 2014 Democratic-held states, which will end up 2018 Democratic holds, which would be all of them, will overperform their 2014-to-2018 margins. Another reason is that I am positive that just five of states would shift in the direction of the Republicans: Alaska, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Vermont. And two of them, Idaho and Nebraska, are possible. Just for cover, I can go with two more. (Whichever two.) So, from the 36 scheduled, only between 15 to 25 percent states are in position to shift more Republican.

After the 1994 Republican, 2006 Democratic, and 2010 Republican majority pickups of governorships, they all ended up with at least 6 to the Top 10 in their column (listed in order of their electoral votes from the presidential election two years earlier):

1994 GOVERNOR — REPUBLICAN MAJORITY PICKUP

• California

• * New York
• * Texas
• * Pennsylvania
• Illinois
• Ohio
• Michigan
[New Jersey — 1993 Republican pickup]

2006 GOVERNOR — DEMOCRATIC MAJORITY PICKUP

• * New York
• Illinois
• Pennsylvania
• *Ohio
• Michigan
[New Jersey]

2010 GOVERNOR — REPUBLICAN MAJORITY PICKUP

• Texas
• Florida
• * Pennsylvania
• * Ohio
• * Michigan
[* New Jersey — 2009 Republican pickup]
• Georgia

Will the 2018 Democrats win a new majority of the nation’s governorships? 

At this time, I am not predicting. In fact, I don’t feel the need to predict. This also has nothing to do with how I, or anyone else reading Progressives Chat, may vote in November. The point of the prior blog entry topics, “Coming Up: U.S. House” and “Coming Up: U.S. Senate,” and now concluding with “Coming Up: U.S. Governors,” is to be able to get a good sense of what may come.

Effective September 21, 2018: The light shaded states are leaning as pickups.

Potential: This is a scenario map for a majorty pickup winning 2018 Democratic Party.

Jimmy Dore Interviews Tulsi Gabbard

Last week, actually late night Thursday/Friday [September 13/14, 2018], the first part of an interview on The Jimmy Dore Show with the host and U.S. Tulsi Gabbard (D–Hawaii #02) was posted.

Since the end of the first part revealed there would be more parts, but without mentioning how many, it was too late for me to make that the blog entry for Friday, September 14, 2018. (The competition of the rest of the videos were published after that date.) But, I definitely wanted to schedule a blog entry posting all video parts of that Dore–Gabbard interview.

It’s better late than never.

Here they are:

Coming Up: U.S. Senate

This past Monday [September 10, 2018], I wrote the blog entry “Coming Up: U.S. House.” Now, here is a focus on the U.S. Senate. (The above is from Real Clear Politics, update from this past Saturday, September 8, 2018, on the apparent status.)

I did my own research of looking into the average number of seats gained with each nationally shifted percentage point from the midterm elections which flipped the U.S. Senate and governorships to the White House opposition party. It is not worth mentioning in detail. Typically between +1 to +1.5 seats are gained with each nationally shifted percentage point. 

On the U.S. Senate schedule, for 2018, is Senate Class #01. They were last on the schedule in 2012, when then-Democratic incumbent U.S. president Barack Obama won re-election. The Democrats, heading into that election with 53 seats, won a net gain of +2, for 55 seats. 

Here is a reminder (* is a pickup for the party):

2012 U.S. SENATE — DEMOCRATIC HOLD [55]

• Republican 42.36%
• Democratic 54.18% (Margin: +11.82; Net Gains: +2)

2012 U.S. SENATE — DEMOCRATIC
• Vermont (Bernie Sanders) +46.17
• New York (Kirsten Gillibrand) +45.86
• Delaware (Tom Carper) +37.47
• Minnesota (Amy Klobuchar) +34.70
• Rhode Island (Sheldon Whitehouse) +29.84
• Maryland (Ben Cardin) +29.65
• Hawaii (Mazie Hirono) +25.20
• California (Dianne Feinstein) +25.04
• West Virginia (Joe Manchin) +24.10
• * Maine (Angus King) +22.15
• Washington (Maria Cantwell) +20.90
• Michigan (Debbie Stabenow) +20.82
• New Jersey (Robert Menendez) +19.45
• Missouri (Claire McCaskill) +15.70
• Florida (Bill Nelson) +13.00
— [U.S. Popular Vote: +11.82] —
• Connecticut (Chris Murphy) +11.75
• Pennsylvania (Bob Casey) +9.10
• * Massachusetts (Elizabeth Warren) +7.55
• Ohio (Sherrod Brown) +6.00
• Virginia (Tim Kaine) +5.91
• (51) * Indiana (Joe Donnelly) +5.73 — Tipping Point!
• (51) New Mexico (Martin Heinrich) +5.73 — Tipping Point!
• (53) Wisconsin (Tammy Baldwin) +5.55
• (54) Montana (Jon Tester) +3.72
• (55) North Dakota (Heidi Heitkamp) +0.90

2012 U.S. SENATE — REPUBLICAN
• Wyoming (John Barrasso) +54.00
• Utah (Orrin Hatch, retiring) +35.33
• Tennessee (Bob Corker, retiring) +34.48
• Mississippi (Roger Wicker) +16.61
• Texas (Ted Cruz) +15.84
• * Nebraska (Deb Fischer) +15.54
• Arizona (Jeff Flake, retiring) +2.98
• Nevada (Dean Heller) +1.16

Under the premise of a 2018 majority pickup of the U.S. Senate for the Democratic Party, there are some things to keep in mind. 

In 2016, California began its system of advancing to the general election the two candidates who received the most votes. This is without regard for party affiliation. So, in 2018 California, just as it was in 2016, the two general-election nominees come from the same party. So, I wouldn’t adhere to assuming a past pattern of expecting the 2018 Democrats to have to increase their 2012 U.S. Popular Vote margin by an additional two or three points.

The last three midterm elections in which the U.S. Senate flipped to the White House opposition party were: 1994 Republican (off Democratic president Bill Clinton), 2006 Democratic (off Republican president George W. Bush), and 2014 Republican (off Democratic president Barack Obama). They all have the following in common: Heading into the elections as the minority party, the 1994 and 2014 Republicans and the 2006 Democrats did not lose a single party-held seat.

If the 2018 Democrats flip the U.S. Senate, my guess is about 17 to 20 will overperform their 2012 margins. I’m estimating between 70 to 80 percent of party-held seats will overperform. Among the re-nominated Democratic U.S. senators likely to underperform: Missouri’s Claire McCaskill, New Jersey’s Bob Mendendez, and West Virginia’s Joe Manchin. North Dakota’s Heidi Heitkamp has nearly nowhere to go to decline if she is to pull off winning re-election. But, for a little while now, Florida’s Bill Nelson, who won by over +1 million raw votes, is in a tossup against the state’s current governor, Rick Scott.

If the 2018 Democrats flip the U.S. Senate, nearly all the 2012 Republican-held seats would underperform. Although I have sensed Utah’s Mitt Romney can overperform retiring incumbent Orrin Hatch’s 2012 margin, a 2018 Romney was recently polled at +26, down from Hatch’s +35.33. In 2012, as the Republican presidential nominee, Romney carried Utah by +47.88 percentage points.

One of these Republican-held states’ seats ranks in the Top 10 for population: Texas. In 2012, Ted Cruz (+15.84), who won the Lone Star State +0.06 above presidential nominee Mitt Romney (+15.78), is severely underperforming in the polls. That race is rated between a tossup and Lean Republican hold. For Top 20 populous states Arizona and Tennessee, the former is rated a Democratic pickup (for Kyrsten Sinema) while the latter is polling with a conspicuous Democratic shift. Tennessee’s retiring Republican incumbent Bob Corker (whose 2012 re-election margin was +34.48 to Mitt Romney’s +20.38) is followed by a race between would-be Republican successor and congresswoman Marsha Blackburn vs. Democratic nominee and former governor Phil Bredesen. It is rated a tossup. Put into a 2012-to-2018 perspective: Texas’s Ted Cruz, who won by over +1.2 million votes, and Tennessee’s Bob Corker, who won by over 800,000 votes, combined for +2 million votes vs. the tossup status of Florida Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson’s +1 million.

It is unrealistic to perceive a national 2012-to-2018 shift for U.S. Senate—and on the watch of Republican incumbent president Donald Trump—in the direction of the Republicans. (Meaning, the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. Senate.) It will likely be a 2018 Democratic shift. When you put this all together, it is not difficult to imagine the 2012 Democrats shifting sufficiently to also yield the pickups of the two seats they need to flip for a new majority. As of September 14, 2018, I would estimate the U.S. Senate is a tossup. But, the advantage is with a Lean Democratic pickup. Since the midterm elections of 1946, when Republicans won majority pickups of both houses of Congress, it was only in 2010 that the U.S. Senate did not flip with the U.S. House. 

Below is the estimated map should the 2018 Democrats succeed in winning a majority-control pickup of the U.S. Senate. Light blue: Democratic pickup. Brown, which would normally be yellow, are apparent tossups.

UPDATE, 09.16.2018, @ 01:15 p.m. ET:

• On Monday: “Jimmy Dore Interviews Tulsi Gabbard.”

• Upcoming (Not Scheduled): “Coming Up: Governors.”

Coming Up: U.S. House

The general election for the 2018 midterm elections are now eight weeks away.

I wrote about the Democrats needing to win the U.S. House (that is U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. House) by +7 in percentage points margin here: Democrats Magic Number: +7.

Over the last week, Real Clear Politics has updated its “Generic Congressional Vote.” This is for U.S. House. The Democrats, in position to flip the U.S. House, are leading by, from these three reports (between August 15 to September 4,, 2018), +9.5 +8.3, and +7.8 percentage points. That is an average of +8.53. Or, if you will, Democratic +8.53.

Looking at those poll numbers, I find it funny that Rasmussen Reports tends to skew Republican, and has had that reputation for over 10 years, and that three of those listed conduced polls during Labor Day weekend (and two apparently on Labor Day, which was September 3, 2018).

I will go by the average reported (by those three): +8.53.

Since the historical number of seats gained with each nationally shifted percentage point (over the midterms of 1946, 1954, 1994, 2006, and 2010) has been +3.59—and that I take into account the 2016 Democrats lost the U.S. Popular Vote, for U.S. House, by –1.08 (it was 49.11% for the Republicans; 48.03% for the Democrats)—here is the math:

• (+1.08) + 8.53 = 9.61 national shift (from 2016)
• 3.59 x 9.61 = +34 seat gains (for the Democrats)

This Friday: “Coming Up: U.S. Senate.”

Happy Birthday, Bernie Sanders!

This Saturday [September 8, 2018] marks the 77th birthday [born in 1941] of independent Vermont U.S. senator and 2016 Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders.

Florida and the 2018 Midterm Elections

The general election of the 2018 midterm elections are two months from this week. The scheduled date is Tuesday, November 6, 2018. (I have another related post coming next Monday.)

The title of this blog entry points to this quick summary: Whichever of the two major political parties wins on the counts of U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and Governor—and this means majority numbers—are going to achieve with Florida.

Here is a fact not many election pundits realize or, if they do, tend to not mention: Since after the 1994 midterms, and starting with 1995, the party which had the majority in the U.S. House also had the majority number of governorships. This means there is importance with the governorships, for Democrats wanting to flip both houses of Congress, which are also critical. The governorships are also important for state houses. They are also important for a possible setup of the next presidential election of record in which the presidency flips from the Republican to the Democratic column (which, at this point, I guess not to be with an unseating of Donald Trump in 2020 but with an open race in 2024).

The last Democratic gubernatorial win in Florida was Lawton Chiles, with his second-term re-election, in 1994. He died in office in December 1998. Just before that, Jeb Bush won a Republican pickup, in November 1998, and was re-elected in 2002. Charlie Crist made it three-in-a-row for the GOP in 2006. Rick Scott, with margins of only +1.15 and +1.07 percentage points, won in 2010 and 2014. So, the Democrats—in what should be a midterm elections wave here in 2018—are looking to end their losing streak of Florida governor races in what is also a long-established bellwether state (since 1928, with exceptions of 1960 and 1992, it has carried for all presidential winners). For the Democratic Party, this is alarmingly overdue.

On Tuesday, August 28, 2018, Tallahassee mayor Andrew Gillum, above, won the 2018 Florida Democratic gubernatorial nomination with 34.3 percent of the vote. Congresswoman Gwen Graham, the daughter of former governor and U.S. senator Bob Graham, came in second with 31.3 percent. They were followed by Miami Beach mayor Philip Levine, at 20.3 percent, and real estate billionaire Jeff Greene, at 10.1 percent.

When you get at least four people seeking a party’s nomination, and that fourth-place candidate finishes with 10 percent of the vote, it is remarkable the winner can prevail with that 3-point margin, over the top runner-up, and also win key counties. Given he was also the lowest-funded candidate in the race, it says a lot about the candidate himself. This is a lot of credit earned by Andrew Gillum.

Here is a screen shot of the 2018 Florida Democratic Gubernatorial Primary:

Source: 2018 Florida Democratic Gubernatorial Primary Map 

Andrew Gillum carried the southeast populous counties Miami–Dade (Miami), by +6 over Levine; Broward (Fort Lauderale), by +12.1 over Levine; and Palm Beach (West Palm Beach), by +0.5 over Graham. In the middle areas of this Florida map, along the I–4 corridor, Gillum also carried Hillsborough (Tampa)—which is a bellwether-to-the-state county (at least in presidential elections)—by +5.4 over Graham. He also carried Orange (Orlando), by +9.9 over Graham. In the northern region, Gillum naturally carried his home county, Leon (Tallahassee), by +7.5 over Graham. He also won Duval County (Jacksonville), by a landslide +27.6 over Graham. (In raw votes, Gillum outpaced Graham there by more than double their votes. Given the Republican side, with the nomination won by Donald Trump-endorsed Ron DeSantis, the congressman from Florida #06 who was in a two-person primary race over ex-congressman Adam Putnam, Gillum had a better Duval County margin than DeSantis, who won Duval County by +26.6.)

Duval County, at the presidential level, has been trending away from the Republicans over the last five presidential elections: In 2000, it was +16 percentage points more Republican than the state of Florida. In 2004, it was +11. In 2008, as Barack Obama flipped the state by nearly +3 percentage points, Duval County was +5 points more Republican. It was at that level, again, in 2012. And in 2016, Donald Trump flipped the state by +1.19 points and won Duval County by +1.36, a spread of a mere 0.17 points. So, this county is trending away from the GOP. If Andrew Gillum wins a 2018 Democratic pickup of the Florida governorship, Duval County may flip with the state of Florida.

There is more to consider. Andrew Gillum was backed by Bernie Sanders. Hillary Clinton did not also endorse Gillum. So, this is an example of the test we will be seeing of a Bernie-endorsed candidate and nominee trying to win a statewide general election. Not an ordinary state. The No. 3 most-populous state in the nation. And a bellwether state. While there are corrupt, corporate Democrats ratfucking Ben Jealous’s attempts to unseat Larry Hogan for Governor of Maryland, the 2018 Democrats can’t win back power without Florida. They cannot expect to flip the U.S. Senate if incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson—re-elected to his third term in 2012 by over 1 million votes and +13 percentage points (while Barack Obama was re-elected with Florida by margins of nearly 75,000 votes and +0.88 points)—gets unseated by Republican challenger and current governor Rick Scott. (Scott has gone after Nelson to a point where the governor has some polls showing him slightly ahead of Nelson, who has no business—in what is supposed to be a 2018 Democratic midterm wave—getting unseated.) 

Establishment Democrats—who want to control as much as they can inside their party (for who exactly can win nominations particularly in key races from the presidency on down)—would have preferred nomination for Gwen Graham. The nominee is Andrew Gillum. 

Let us keep in mind the following:

 • The Democrats want the U.S. House. Okay. That starts with 2016 Hillary Clinton’s carried 20 states, minus those (like Massachusetts and Connecticut), which have 100 percent Democratic-held seats, before going to the six 2016 Republican pickup states for Donald Trump: Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (as well as Maine #02, where incumbent Republican Bruce Poliquin is in a tossup race). The 2018 Democrats will likely not flip the U.S. House while no seats in Florida come along for the ride. It has been polled, for more than a year, that retiring Republican Ileana Ros–Lehtinen’s 27th Congressional District will flip Democratic. Republican incumbent Carlos Curbelo, from Florida #26, has been polling in position to become unseated.

 • The Democrats want the U.S. Senate. Okay. The last three midterm elections, in which the upper chamber flipped to the White House opposition party, were 1994 (Republican pickup off Democrat Bill Clinton); 2006 (Democratic pickup off Republican George W. Bush); and 2014 (Republican pickup off Democrat Barack Obama). In each case, the minority party heading in ended up not losing a single party-held seat. The Democrats, with 49, would achieve a new majority by holding all their seats and winning pickups with Nevada (unseating Dean Heller by Jacky Rosen) and Arizona (open race with Martha McSally failing to hold via pickup by Kyrsten Sinema). The Democrats are also in striking distance in Tennessee and Texas. In 2012, Texas’s Ted Cruz won by over 1.2 million vote and +15.84 percentage points, and Tennessee’s retiring Bob Corker won by over 800,000 votes and +34 percentage points. Combined, Cruz and Corker won by 2 million votes—and those seats are rated between tossup and Lean Republican hold.  The 2018 Democrats should not be getting counter-flipped—especially with Nelson—when three of the eight states won by the 2012 Republicans are Top-10 [Texas] and -20 [Arizona, Tennessee] populous states which are shifting sharply toward the Democrats. The 2018 Democrats are not likely to flip the U.S. Senate if Bill Nelson gets unseated. 

 • The Democrats should want to win a new majority count of governorships. Following the November 2017 pickup of New Jersey, the 2018 Democrats have 16. They need a pickup of +10 to reach a new majority with at least 26. Recent polls have the Republicans not flipping a Democratic-held governorship but possibly achieving with the independent-held Alaska. But, that would still keep the Democrats at 16 and in need of a net gain of +10. Four states are more immediately in position to flip: Illinois, New Mexico, Maine, and Michigan. (Republican incumbents Bruce Rauner, so severely unpopular and poised to become unseated, is followed by term-limited Susana Martinez, Paul LePage, and Rick Snyder as nooses around the necks of their would-be party successors.) Real Clear Politics has a list of tossup states which are all currently in the Republican column. If the Democrats win over a new majority, they will reach with the inclusion of Florida. My estimate of likelihood are: (21) Nevada; (22) Florida; (23) Wisconsin; and (24) Ohio. To reach the tipping point, that 26th state, look to (cited alphabetically): Arizona, Georgia, and Iowa. Beyond the new majority: (28) Kansas. Requiring a tidal [national] wave: Maryland, Oklahoma, and Tennessee.

There is something delicious to this. Establishment Democrats—those who thwart and/or sabotage progressives (or, more to the point, those more progressive to the establishment’s comfort)—will not be able see their political party re-empowered, with the results of Election 2018, without Florida. This means they need Andrew Gillum. And it may turn out—once Election Night arrives and passes, and we see which party prevails on each of the three above counts—the best bellwether state for the midterm elections of 2018 will be Florida.

I will leave this blog entry with was an insightful, early-August 2018, The Young Turks “Rebel HQ” interview between host Cenk Uygur and guest Andrew Gillum.