Leap Day 2020 in South Carolina

The 2020 South Carolina Democratic presidential primary is being held, as it turns out, on Leap Day—February 29, 2020.

A Saturday.

Last time that happened was in 1992.

Next time will be in 2048.

The exact calendar in a given leap year does not repeat for another 28 years. Think: Seven days of the week times every four years. So, as an example, if you like your birthday on a given day of the week, in a leap year, it will not get repeated on that particular day for another 28 years.

This is a pattern I have observed.

What else is going to be observed are the results of the 2020 South Carolina Democratic presidential primary.

Will this be the first ever primaries contest won by Joe Biden? (As the party establishment’s preferred candidate, Biden is dealing with a 2016 Hillary Clinton margin of +47.42 percentage points.)

Can Bernie Sanders pull off an upset?

Stay tuned.

Panic!

The Saturday, February 22, 2020 results from the 2020 Nevada Democratic caucuses have the corporate, Democratic Party Establishment in—as is the title of this blog—Panic!

I am reminded of something that was said by Lionel Nation. (For a time, I watched some of his streamed content on YouTube.) This was in, if I correctly remember, the year 2017. 

Nation said, of the corporate, Democratic Party Establishment, “They are losing their party.” 

I interpreted it as: “They are losing their party.” 

Italicizing that word is necessary. It recognizes there is a distinction. They don’t want to lose their party.

On pace for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, Bernie Sanders already has a coalition. 

Sanders is winning the 18–29 while losing the 65+ voters, here in the primaries, which is what usually plays in general elections. 

(65+ are the first to vote Republican. They were the only commonly recorded voting-age group which carried nationally in 2008 for John McCain in an election in which the Republicans had the presidency and saw it flip Democratic for Barack Obama. And, since Democrats like to brag about how they won the U.S. Popular Vote in six of the last seven presidential elections of 1992 to 2016, the one cycle in which they lost—a 2004 John Kerry—saw the 18–29 voters as the only commonly recorded voting-age group nationally carried by the Democrats.)

A complaint about Sanders, in 2016, was that he was better with White than Non-White voters. Here in 2020—thus far with Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada—Sanders is receiving stronger percentages of votes by Non-Whites than Whites. 

This is really good.

I am enjoying the Panic!

The Democratic Party Establishment—and I count their allies in the media (with an example being MSNBC)—should lose their party.

Their party is not a political party. Their party is a corrupt business—with an elite culture of graduates from prestige universities (especially Harvard)—of individuals who are disconnected with the have-nots because they are among the haves. This means they are disconnected with governing for the people especially in a period of crises and great need. They have been running the Democratic Party like it is only a business. That business happens to be politics. Keeping their party requires them to continue succeeding with their usual method of gaslighting against a sufficient number of people nationwide, when they dissent, to get them [Democratic voters] to feel they need the corrupt, corporate Democratic Party Establishment.

We, the have-nots, need to be represented.

I will share the following videos:

The 2020 Nevada Democratic Caucuses

The day has arrived.

Saturday, February 22, 2020.

Nevada.

Caucus state.

2016 result was Hillary Clinton +5.35. Which means Bernie Sanders –5.35.

Favored to win, here in 2020, is Sanders. A comfortable margin. And we will see how it goes.

I look to Clark County, with its county seat Las Vegas, which he did not win in 2016, and Washoe County, with its county seat Reno, which he won in 2016. They comprise around 85 percent of the statewide vote. A candidate who wins both carries the state.

This blog topic will run through Monday [February 24, 2020].

‘What Democrats Still Don’t Get About George McGovern’

I have had come across comparisons of 2020 Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders to the 1972 losing Democratic presidential nominee George McGovern.

It comes from old (and I don’t mean that word negatively) people, outside the beltway establishment, but it is pushed as a narrative by corporate Democratic Party Establishment figures.

They think of Election 1972.

In that presidential election, McGovern carried only District of Columbia and Massachusetts and a then-mathematical 17 electoral votes while Republican incumbent Richard Nixon was re-elected with carriage of 49 states and 521 (520, faithless elector) electoral votes.

So, the McGovern electoral disaster is instant recall for some. And, from the Democratic Party Establishment, it is used as the shining example of a warning against taking the party left.

Problem: They do not have an accurate understanding and/or memory of that particular U.S. presidential elections. (For those that do, they are dishonest.)

I am not one who normally reads The New Republic. Not at all. But, in doing a search, I came across an interesting piece from 2016. This was during the 2016 presidential primaries. It is worth sharing.


Link: What Democrats Still Don’t Get About George McGovern

A specter is haunting the Democratic Party—“McGovernism.” In 1972, President Richard Nixon shellacked his Democratic opponent, George McGovern, by a 23-point margin in the popular vote. Following McGovern’s defeat, Democrats began running towards the center and haven’t looked back, even though that center seems to have moved further and further to the right with each passing election. 

For the past 40 years, whenever a Democratic presidential hopeful has given off the slightest whiff of leftish anti-establishmentarianism, party leaders and mainstream pundits have invoked McGovern’s name. In 2004, Howard Dean was the new McGovern. In 2008, Barack Obama became the new McGovern. This year [2016], it’s Bernie Sanders’s turn. 

But the Democrats’ fear of McGovernism is misplaced. McGovern didn’t lose because he was too far to the left. He lost because he was facing a popular incumbent presiding over a booming economy. Moreover, the Democrats’ belief that they need to steer clear of McGovernism, assuming it was ever correct, now looks increasingly misguided. With each passing decade, the types of voters drawn to McGovern’s 1972 campaign have become a larger and larger share of the American electorate, while the issues championed by McGovern have become more and more salient. 

…

I am going to present some information, from Gallup, about how 37th U.S. president Richard Nixon was polling prior to winning re-election on November 7, 1972. (Source: Gallup—Presidential Job Approval Center.)

• December 10–13, 1971 — 50%
• January 7–10, 1972 — 49%
• February 4–7, 1972 — 52%
• March 3–5, 1972 — 56%
• March 24–27, 1972 — 53%
• April 28–May 1, 1972 — 54%
• May 26–29, 1972 — 62%
• June 16–19, 1972 — 59%
• June 23–26, 1972 — 56%
• November 11–14, 1972 — 62%

(Gallup does not list any more specific dates between late-June and, say, late-October 1972. A graph indicates Nixon’s job-approval percentage, in between those four months, was in the high-50s.)

Here is a reminder of the results of Election 1972:

1972 U.S. PRESIDENT [November 7, 1972]
• Richard Nixon (R, inc., re-elected) 60.67%
• George McGovern (D) 37.52%
• U.S. Popular Vote Margin: Republican +23.15
• National Shift (from 1968): Republican +22.45 (Nixon’s 1968 popular-vote margin, as a Republican pickup winner, was +0.70)
• Electoral Map: 49 carried states and 521/520 electoral votes (not carried were District of Columbia and Massachusetts)
• Electoral Map Changes (from 1968): Republican +17 pickup states (from 32, in 1968) and +219 electoral votes (from 302/301, in 1968)

‘New Hampshire 2020: In Supreme Irony, the Horse Race Favors Bernie Sanders’

A very interesting piece, which is also the title of this blog topic, by Matt Taibbi appears on the website of Rolling Stone.

Here is a small sample:

“I saw this movie in 2016 and have a fair idea of how it ends. It just won’t be horrifying this time.”

Link: New Hampshire 2020: In Supreme Irony, the Horse Race Favors Bernie Sanders.

The 2020 New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary

Tuesday [February 11, 2020] is the 2020 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary.

It is the first primary state on the schedule.

I do want to make certain to note here, because I had not previously commented, that I did not buy into the so-called results of last week’s 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses in which Pete Buttigieg has, so far, received more state delegates while Bernie Sanders won the state’s popular vote in both the first and second rounds (realignment). The way that whole thing went down struck me as highly suspect. And I think it was rigging in terms of controlling the timeline (the night of the election), release of information for percentages of the votes in, and the creation of a narrative Buttigieg and CNN ran with. I am suspicious of Buttigieg, those close to him (and the upcoming caucuses in Nevada), and do not trust the Iowa Democratic Party, the DNC, and its chairman Tom Perez.

★★★★★

In Touch Movie: I did not watch the live Oscar ceremony, on ABC, last Sunday [February 9, 2020]. But, I found it interesting that the 2019 Best Picture winner—also the winner for Best Foreign Film (which has been renamed Best International Feature Film; this is a first!)—was Parasite. It is a dark comedy from South Korea by Best Director winner Bong Joon–ho with a theme on income inequality. (Parasite also saw Joon–ho win with Han Jin–won the 2019 Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay. Joon–ho won four Oscars for the film.) I may have to make a point of seeing this film. I will include the following video from The Hill’s “The Rising”:

★★★★★

Reminder: Beginning this week, and with the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries running through early-June, twice-a-week Progressives Chat blog topics will be scheduled on Tuesdays and Saturdays. So, the next blog topic will be on Saturday, February 15, 2020.)

‘FiveThirtyEight’ on Nomination Trajectory…Schedule Changes…Denying Oscar

I am not a big fan of Nate Silver anymore. I liked him years ago. In recent times, not so much. But, he is of some use with his FiveThirtyEight information that includes the possible trajectory of the 2020 race for the Democratic presidential nomination. He gives Bernie Sanders nearly a 50-percent chance to win the nomination—and is on pace to win more than 40 states in the primaries—while all others are well behind. I will leave the following link: Who Will Win The 2020 Democratic Primary?.

⭑ ⭑ ⭑ ⭑ ⭑

Upcoming Schedule Changes

I will be using my twice-a-week Progressives Chat blog site to cover the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries with respect to the scheduling on the very day of contests.

This begins next week with Tuesday, February 11, 2020 in the first primary state, and the second overall, New Hampshire.

Two consecutive Saturdays, February 22 (Nevada) and 29 (South Carolina), are on the schedule before we move into the next month with Super Tuesday on March 3, 2020.

What I will do, beginning next week, is schedule blog topics on Tuesdays and Saturdays.

After the last contest, Saturday, June 6, 2020, I will return to a schedule of Mondays and Fridays.

⭑ ⭑ ⭑ ⭑ ⭑

No, thank you, Oscar!

The 92nd Academy Awards are on this Sunday, February 9, 2020, on ABC. (Yes—it has come early this year. Since 2004, scheduling was usually the final Sunday in February or first Sunday in March.)

I launched Progressives Chat in September 2017.

In 2018 and 2019, I acknowledged Oscar with some content with appreciation for the movies.

I am refraining from doing that this year.

(The 2020 Democratic presidential primaries have my attention.)

With what time I take, personally, to watch movies…I find, as I am getting closer to age 50 (I turn 49 in August), I have become set in my ways.

I prefer to watch some older movies—I think most highly of the decade of the 1970s—because numerous directors, writers, and actors were more talented and skilled. The productions were more unique and fascinating. (My favorite was Robert Altman’s landmark 1975 film Nashville. I have a subscription to Criterion Channel. And I have been enjoying it. Sometimes, I make use of Turner Classic Movies. This month is Oscar Month on TCM.)

I like movies. I also like not being overly generous with giving my time to just about anything being produced lately that is critically well-received. So, if there were some truly fantastic films and performances from 2019—ones which may be honored with (and are deserving of) Academy Awards—I will write, “Congratulations!” while I also acknowledge that I will miss out. (Perhaps I will catch up with however many of them…whenever I may get around to doing that.)

I’m at peace.

In Iowa, the 2020 Democratic Presidential Primaries Have Now Arrived

The 2020 Democratic presidential primaries begin today.

Iowa, the first contest, is holding its caucuses today [Monday, February 3, 2020].

The following is the rest of the schedule. All are in alphabetical order. Those which are contests that are not states—meaning part of the electoral map—are in italics. (* Top 10 populous state.)

• FEBRUARY •

Monday, February 3

Iowa (caucus)

Tuesday, February 11

New Hampshire (primary)

Saturday, February 22

Nevada (caucus)

Saturday, February 29

South Carolina (primary)

• MARCH •

Tuesday, March 3 (Super Tuesday)

Alabama (primary)
American Samoa (caucus)
Arkansas (primary)
* California (primary)
Colorado (primary)
Maine (primary)
Massachusetts (primary)
Minnesota (primary)
* North Carolina (primary)
Oklahoma (primary)
Tennessee (primary)
* Texas (primary)
Utah (primary)
Vermont (primary)
Virginia (primary)

Tuesday, March 10

Democrats Abroad (partly-run primary)
Idaho (primary)
* Michigan (primary)
Mississippi (primary)
Missouri (primary)
North Dakota (firehouse caucus; partly-run primary)
Washington (primary)

Saturday, March 14

Northern Mariana Islands (caucus)

Tuesday, March 17

Arizona (primary)
* Florida (primary)
* Illinois (primary)
* Ohio (primary)

Tuesday, March 24

* Georgia (primary)

Sunday, March 29

Puerto Rico (primary)

• APRIL •

Saturday, April 4

Alaska (partly-run primary)
Hawaii (partly-run primary)
Louisiana (primary)
Wyoming (caucus)

Tuesday, April 7

Wisconsin (primary)

Tuesday, April 28

Connecticut (primary)
Delaware (primary)
Maryland (primary)
* New York (primary)
* Pennsylvania (primary)
Rhode Island (primary)

• MAY •

Saturday, May 2

Guam (caucus)
Kansas (partly-run primary)

Tuesday, May 5

Indiana (primary)

Tuesday, May 12

Nebraska (primary)
West Virginia (primary)

Tuesday, May 19

Kentucky (primary)
Oregon (primary)

• JUNE •

Tuesday, June 2

District of Columbia (primary)
Montana (primary)
New Jersey (primary)
New Mexico (primary)
South Dakota (primary)

Saturday, June 6

United States Virgin Islands (primary)