This week’s blog topic relates not only to Election 2024, for U.S. President, but also applies going forward. It speaks to historic pattern. Considerable influence as well. That this is likely to continue.
The above map, with colors, are the U.S.’s Top 10 most-populous states.
This is relevant because The Top 10 bares much influence electorally. They add up to 254 of the 270 electoral votes required for election the presidency of the United States.
The Top 10 also comprise between 53 to 54 percent as the home states for all U.S. citizens.
Source: US States — Ranked by Population 2024 …
Historically, no past U.S. presidential election was won with less than 4 of the Top 10 populous states. The last time that a winner carried only 4 was George W. Bush in the 2000s. In his column were his home state Texas along with North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio. The 6 remaining Top 10 states—California. New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Michigan and, then-ranked among the Top 10, New Jersey—were in the columns for losing Democrats Al Gore and John Kerry.
(Separate note: During the 1990s and 2000s, New Jersey still ranked among the Top 10 most-populous states. Georgia and North Carolina went back and forth of being in and out of the Top 10. Since the 2010s, New Jersey fell to rank No. 11 and both Georgia and North Carolina—which dethroned a formerly No. 8 Michigan—are now comfortable Top 10 states.)
Since 1992, no one has carried more than 32 states. No winner has carried
more than 8 of the Top 10 states. 1996 Bill Clinton and 2012 Barack Obama
reached. 1992 Clinton, 2012 Obama, and 2016 Trump carried 7. A 2020 Biden carried 6.
Most presidential winners have carried 6 or more Top 10 states.
The above map’s color-coding recognizes where each Top 10 state is
currently aligned.
This regards where they rank among best-performed
states in percentage-points margins by which a state carries (or does not).
States appearing in purple are leading (Michigan and Pennsylvania) and rising (Georgia)—as well as sleeper (North Carolina)—bellwethers.
The following are each Top 10 populous state’s “Probable Order in Rank” for the Democratic and Republican parties:
On the top map, I have Texas appearing in light red. It is for the following reason: The next year on record the Democrats have a U.S. presidential election in which they carry not only 6 or 7 but up to 8 of the nation’s Top 10 populous states … what will come in as their No. 8 is Texas.
(Another separate note: The Democrats, given the current electoral structure, would not reach their No. 9 Florida and No. 10 Ohio. They transformed, in 2016, from former leading bellwether states to realign Republican. This trajectory is at a point in which Texas is about to become bluer than Florida and Florida is about to become redder than Texas.)
Texas is in light red, to suggest Lean Republican, due to its trendline toward the Democrats. During the presidency of George W. Bush, won in 2000 and 2004, it was the Democrats’s No. 41 best state. With the Republicans’s 2008 and 2012 losses, Texas was the Democrats’s No. 36 best state. Although Trump was a 2016 Republican pickup winner, Texas became the Democrats’s No. 29 best state. And in 2020, with Biden having unseated Trump, Texas ranked the Democrats’s No. 28 best state. (Florida was No. 27.) Since 1992, prevailing Democrats have averaged 28 carried states. They can reach and carry Texas if they win the presidency with 8 of the Top 10.
If you want to look at this as well from the Republicans’s position … reverse their “Probable Order” and, lately, they’re good for up to 7 of the Top 10. That is what 2016 Trump experienced. The same 7 states, if he wins a second non-consecutive term here in 2024, will end up in his column.
