Election 2024 Prediction: Trump … Vance … Republican Trifecta

Next week is the 2024 United States presidential election … along with other races and ballot issues. 

“Election Day 2024” will publish Tuesday, November 5, 2024, at 12:00 a.m. ET.

This prediction is final.

In the meantime… 

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I predict Donald Trump, from Florida, will win re-election to a second, non-consecutive term to become the next and 47th president of the United States.

I predict JD Vance, from Ohio, will win election to become the next and 50th vice president of the United States.

I predict the overall outcome for Election 2024 will be the Trifecta for the Republican Party: U.S. President, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House.

While the 2024 Republicans will win a pickup for U.S. President, I predict they will also win a pickup for the U.S. Senate while retaining a majority hold for control for the U.S. House.

Coming into Election 2024, the Democrats have established 51 percent for both U.S. President (in 2020, Joe Biden’s U.S. Popular Vote was 51.26%) and U.S. Senate (in 2022, the Democrats ended up with 51 of its 100 seats). The Republicans also established 51 percent for U.S. House (in 2022, they ended up with 222 of its 435 seats).

It is highly likely, with the overall results of Election 2024, one of these two major political parties will end up with the Trifecta. It looks better for the Republicans. 

I will present maps on U.S. President and U.S. Senate. But, due to more complexity and a difficult visual illustation, I will not follow suit for U.S. House.

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Please note these colors on maps: Solid shade is for party hold. Light shade is for party pickup.

U.S. President

• Winner: Donald Trump

• Winning Ticket: Donald Trump (R–Florida) and JD Vance (R–Ohio)

• Prevailing Party: Republican—pickup

• U.S. Popular Vote [Estimate]: Donald Trump 50% • Kamala Harris 47%

• Percentage-Points Margin [Estimate]: R+3

• Electoral College: 31 states, plus Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, and 312 electoral votes

• 2020-to-2024 Electoral College Change: Republican pickups of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin

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U.S. Senate

• Prevailing Party: Republican—pickup

• U.S. Senate [Outcomes with Minimums]: Democratic 43 • Republican 52; five are not predicted … but they all are states/seats currently in the column for the Democrats

• 2022-to-2024 U.S. Senate Change: Republican pickups of West Virginia [Jim Justice, in an Open race]: Montana [Tim Sheehy, unseating Jon Tester]; and Ohio [Bernie Moreno, unseating Sherrod Brown]

• Watch (in Yellow): Arizona [Kari Lake vs. Ruben Gallego, in an Open race]; Michigan [Mike Rogers vs. Elissa Slotkin, in an Open race]; Nevada [Sam Brown vs. incumbent Jacky Rosen]; Pennsylvania [David McCormick vs. incumbent Bob Casey]; and Wisconsin [Eric Hovde vs. incumbent Tammy Baldwin]

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U.S. House

• Prevailing Party: Republican—hold

• U.S. Popular Vote [Estimate]: Democratic 47% • Republican 50%

• Percentage-Points Margin [Estimate]: R+3

• U.S. House [Estimate]: Democratic 211–215 • Republican 220–224

• 2022-to-2024 U.S. House Change: Republican –2 to +2

The U.S. House Popular Vote

The trajectory of this 2024 United States presidential election has turned in favor for Donald Trump.

Polls show he is leading in nearly or all the commonly focused “Swing States.”

I will make my predictions next week, for Monday, October 28, 2024.

(The following week, for Tuesday, November 5, 2024, will focus on Election Day.)

Why am I not going ahead with Election 2024 predictions this week?

There is good reason.

Since the year 2000, specifically in United States presidential elections, the party which won the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. House also prevailed for U.S. President.

This includes the last two Republican pickup years of 2000 and 2016—for George W. Bush and Trump—who did not carry the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. President. (Bush succeeded with re-election in 2004.)

Given this, I am following Real Clear Politics’s tracking of the “Generic Congressional Vote.” 

I anticipate—and expect—this pattern will hold.

The above chart are results from Elections 2000–2020. 

The percentage-points margins—U.S. President vs. U.S. House—have been closely connected. Average, over six election cycles, was only 1.94 percentage points in margin.

The below images are from Real Clear Politics effective Sunday, October 20, 2024. 

The U.S. House is on the schedule every two years. Even-numbered years. With that, they cannot skip an election cycle. The full 100 recent of its seats are scheduled.

Here were the results, in 2022, when Republicans won pickup control for the U.S. House:

If Election 2024 ends up a Democratic hold, to elect Kamala Harris, these numbers may closely reflect national outcomes for U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. President vs. U.S. House. (I sense Democratic percentage-points margins, for U.S. President and U.S. House, to be +5 and +2 or +3.)

If Election 2024 ends up a Republican pickup for U.S. President, to re-elect Trump to a second non-consecutive term, I would anticipate—not unlike the Democrats—the 2024 Republicans to carry the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. House. (I sense Republican percentage-points margins, for U.S. President and U.S. House, to be –1 to +3 and +0 to +4.)

The Democrats are narrowly ahead with this aggregate of polls. Typically the margin of error, for polls, are between 3 to 5 points. This suggests, if this holds, they would flip the U.S. House. This is due to the 2022 Democrats having lost control of the U.S. House, with a minority 213 seats, and a U.S. Popular Vote percentage-points margin of –2.72. This would likely come with Democratic holds for U.S. President and U.S. Senate. 

If it turns out Trump wins this election, these national “Generic Congressional Vote” numbers may see the Republicans—who flipped the U.S. House with the midterm elections of 2022—draw Even or move ahead. This would put the 2024 Republicans on a path for holding the U.S. House while flipping U.S. President and U.S. Senate.

It is no wonder, as last week’s blog title stated, Election 2024 is such a Tossup.

‘Tossup,’ Once More

Last week saw coverage of recent polls reporting Democatic presidential nominee and U.S. vice president Kamala Harris is losing ground…and that she may lose the 2024 U.S. presidential election to Republican nominee and former U.S. president Donald Trump.

This is three weeks from the general election scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024. There are several matters to consider. I am, at this point, rating Election 2024: U.S. President an absolute Tossup. 

Commonly focused “Swing States”—appearing on the above map in Yellow—will be most instrumental with determining overall outcome for this election. (They may all get carried.)

I will post in Comments some recent videos which are related to this week’s topic.

Top 10 States: Alignment for U.S. President

This week’s blog topic relates not only to Election 2024, for U.S. President, but also applies going forward. It speaks to historic pattern. Considerable influence as well. That this is likely to continue. 

The above map, with colors, are the U.S.’s Top 10 most-populous states. 

This is relevant because The Top 10 bares much influence electorally. They add up to 254 of the 270 electoral votes required for election the presidency of the United States.

The Top 10 also comprise between 53 to 54 percent as the home states for all U.S. citizens. 

Source: US States — Ranked by Population 2024 …

Historically, no past U.S. presidential election was won with less than 4 of the Top 10 populous states. The last time that a winner carried only 4 was George W. Bush in the 2000s. In his column were his home state Texas along with North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio. The 6 remaining Top 10 states—California. New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Michigan and, then-ranked among the Top 10, New Jersey—were in the columns for losing Democrats Al Gore and John Kerry.

(Separate note: During the 1990s and 2000s, New Jersey still ranked among the Top 10 most-populous states. Georgia and North Carolina went back and forth of being in and out of the Top 10. Since the 2010s, New Jersey fell to rank No. 11 and both Georgia and North Carolina—which dethroned a formerly No. 8 Michigan—are now comfortable Top 10 states.)

Since 1992, no one has carried more than 32 states. No winner has carried more than 8 of the Top 10 states. 1996 Bill Clinton and 2012 Barack Obama reached. 1992 Clinton, 2012 Obama, and 2016 Trump carried 7. A 2020 Biden carried 6.

Most presidential winners have carried 6 or more Top 10 states.

The above map’s color-coding recognizes where each Top 10 state is currently aligned. 

This regards where they rank among best-performed states in percentage-points margins by which a state carries (or does not).

States appearing in purple are leading (Michigan and Pennsylvania) and rising (Georgia)—as well as sleeper (North Carolina)—bellwethers.

The following are each Top 10 populous state’s “Probable Order in Rank” for the Democratic and Republican parties:

On the top map, I have Texas appearing in light red. It is for the following reason: The next year on record the Democrats have a U.S. presidential election in which they carry not only 6 or 7 but up to 8 of the nation’s Top 10 populous states … what will come in as their No. 8 is Texas. 

(Another separate note: The Democrats, given the current electoral structure, would not reach their No. 9 Florida and No. 10 Ohio. They transformed, in 2016, from former leading bellwether states to realign Republican. This trajectory is at a point in which Texas is about to become bluer than Florida and Florida is about to become redder than Texas.)

Texas is in light red, to suggest Lean Republican, due to its trendline toward the Democrats. During the presidency of George W. Bush, won in 2000 and 2004, it was the Democrats’s No. 41 best state. With the Republicans’s 2008 and 2012 losses, Texas was the Democrats’s No. 36 best state. Although Trump was a 2016 Republican pickup winner, Texas became the Democrats’s No. 29 best state. And in 2020, with Biden having unseated Trump, Texas ranked the Democrats’s No. 28 best state. (Florida was No. 27.) Since 1992, prevailing Democrats have averaged 28 carried states. They can reach and carry Texas if they win the presidency with 8 of the Top 10.

If you want to look at this as well from the Republicans’s position … reverse their “Probable Order” and, lately, they’re good for up to 7 of the Top 10. That is what 2016 Trump experienced. The same 7 states, if he wins a second non-consecutive term here in 2024, will end up in his column.