I reserved this calendar date, one year and one month ahead of the next major national elections, for a perspective.
This can be taken as one will.
‘U.S. Elections’ with “Midterms, Presidential Cycles”
The above chart is about the prevailing party from each election cycle over two-year periods—even-numbered years—which combine midterm and presidential election cycles.
Overall gains in midterms. And in presidentials.
Which party—Republican or Democratic—was the overall prevailing party in a given year.
The chart goes back more than 100 years.
Dating back to the 17th Amendment, which is direct elections of U.S. senators by states’s voters, there have been 28 midterm elections. (Given the above chart dates back to 1910, make that 29.) Since 1912—when New Mexico and Arizona joined the Union and first voted—the U.S. has had 28 presidential elections.
The longest period a given party has been able to maintain a winning streak of election cycles—again, combining midterms and presidentials—has been four.
Those four consecutive wins occurred in the 1930s with Year #02 of the presidency of Republican Herbert Hoover through the second-term re-election of Democrat Franklin Roosevelt.
The midterms of 1962, on the watch of Democratic incumbent U.S. president John Kennedy, saw a split with both major parties: Republicans, in the U.S. House, and Democrats, in the U.S. Senate, for the same number of gains. (That is why 1962 is in purple.)
While those periods were great for the Democrats, the Republicans shined during the three consecutive cycles of 2000, 2002, and 2004 with George W. Bush.
Please note that the midterm years of 1934, 1998, and 2002 were overall gains for the incumbent White House party. They occurred in just three such election cycles.
The highest number of party switches for U.S. President, over consecutive election cycles, is four. They occurred at separate points during the 19th century. During the first half of the century: 1840 (Whig), 1844 (Democratic), 1848 (Whig), and 1852 (Democratic). During the second half of the century: 1884 (Democratic), 1888 (Republican), 1892 (Democratic), and 1896 (Republican). Currently, we are at three in a row: 2016 (Republican), 2020 (Democratic), and 2024 (Republican).
This is, mainly, about how long can a given party sustain with a winning—or losing—streak. And it is, of course, speaking to voters…how they, historically, behave electorally with these two major parties.
‘Elections 2006–2024: Party-Control Outcomes’
The second chart shows how we are on another pattern that has been playing out for nearly 20 years..
In the midterm elections of 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022—each of the last five such cycles—all were party switches for one or both houses of Congress.
In the presidential elections of 2008, 2016, 2020, and 2024—four of the last five cycles—all were party switches for U.S. President.
(Such party switches, on the chart, are highlighted in lighter shades.)
Only in 2012 did the incumbent parties, having entered the year’s elections, retain control. That year…Democrats won holds for U.S. President—re-election for Barack Obama—and U.S. Senate; Republicans, after having flipped the U.S. House with the midterm elections of 2010, also held on.
How we are here in the Fall of 2025?
Nearly nine months have passed since Republican Donald Trump returned to office. His job approval is under water. He is, with most polls, in the 40s percentile range. Low- to mid-40s. With a two-party matchup which tend to combine for 97–99 percent of all votes cast…any number below, as an estimate, 48 percent is not good. But to be even lower…it gets worse.
Above screenshot is Gallup reporting Trump’s job approval, from September 2–16, 2025, is 40 percent.
Link: Presidential Job Approval Center
The special elections since March 25, 2025—in Pennsylvania, Florida, Connecticut, and the non-partisan (but partisan-recognized) Wisconsin Supreme Court—were all underperformances for the Republicans and overperformances for the Democrats. (More states have since held special elections. Same pattern.)
November 4, 2025 will hold gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, the Nos. 11 and 12 most-populous states in the U.S., and they have a long-established pattern: Since 1977, with exception in 2013, Virginia has elected White House opposition-party governors. Since 1989, with exception in 2021, New Jersey has elected White House opposition-party governors. For Virginia, this is 11 of the last 12 cycles. For New Jersey, 8 of the last 9 cycles. (New Jersey, actually, made it in 8 in a row from 1989–2017.) Election results in 2021: New Jersey, a Democratic hold for Phil Murphy, by +3.22 percentage points; Virginia, a Republican pickup for Glenn Youngkin, by +1.94 percentage points. Both states—and one has to flip—are likely to end up in the Democratic column. And the Democratic candidates in those states—New Jersey’s Mikie Sherrill and Virginia’s Abigail Spanberger—are leading in the polls.
This sets up a 2026 midterm elections cycle favorable for the White House opposition party.
I already think the 2026 Democrats will win over control for the U.S. House. And I will address that in the next blog topic, scheduled for [Wednesday,] October 15, 2025.
Conclusion
I find it interesting to see how many election cycles—midterms and presidentials—a given party tends to sustain.
While previously noting particularly good periods, for the Democrats and the Republicans, in many cases the limit appears to be two.
Let’s review Elections 2016–2024.
Eight years. Five consecutive cycles of midterms and presidentials. 2016 was a year for the Republicans. 2018 and 2020 were with the Democrats. 2022 and 2024 had people in the mood for the color red.
Now, it looks like Election 2026 will be a year in which voters prefer the color blue.
If Trump’s presidency, after 2026, does not—as is currently the case—have people thinking and feeling their lives are improving…it may turn out that not only 2026 (pickup for U.S. House) but also 2028 (pickups for both U.S. President and U.S. Senate) will be prevailing years for the Democratic Party.
