Reflection: Results from Election 2016

Red: Republican Hold | Light Red: Republican Pickup
Blue: Democratic Hold | Light Blue: Democratic Pickup (not applicable)

Results:
Donald Trump  62,985,134 votes; 45.93%; 30 states, plus Maine #02, 306 (304) electoral votes
—Republican pickup winner; Shift from 2012: +2,115,582 votes and +1.77 percentage points—
Hillary Clinton  65,853,602 votes; 48.02%; 20 states, plus District of Columbia, 232 (227) electoral votes
Gary Johnson  4,489,235 votes; 3.27%; no electoral votes
Jill Stein  1,457,226 votes; 1.06%; no electoral votes




We have an anniversary today [Wednesday, November 8, 2017].

It was one year ago, [Tuesday,] November 8, 2016, which marked the 58th presidential election in United States history resulting in Donald Trump elected the 45th president of the United States.

This was considered devastating to all who believed Hillary Clinton was the correct choice.

They were wrong.

My No. 1 stated reason explaining why Hillary Clinton lost to Donald Trump is this simple: Participating 2016 Republican presidential primaries voters voted the nomination to the candidate they needed. Participating 2016 Democratic presidential primaries voters, who voted the nomination to Hillary Clinton, did just the opposite.

I could go beyond that. But, that does bottom-line it in describing just how badly out of touch and assuming pro-Hillary Clinton supporters turned out to be with the primaries and the general election. One year later, many of them—and this isn’t limited to party and beltway insiders but also citizens—remain out of touch and assuming and, well, you can have your fun describing them.

Getting into the details on some numbers, for results, and how the map unfolded is another thing.

The above map shows where the election was won: the industrial midwest and Rust Belt states appearing in light red were the 2016 Republican pickups for Donald Trump. (I wish Election Night coverage would use light shades for immediate illustration for switches in party support.) Trump began with carriage with 2016 Republican holds of the 24 states from the 2012 column for losing nominee Mitt Romney. (It typically happens, in a party-flipping year for the presidency, the pickup winner starts with carriage of the same states the party’s losing nominee won in the previous cycle.) These 24 states comprise 206 electoral votes. Trump flipped six states—Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (as well as the 2nd Congressional District of Maine)—for a net gain of +100 electoral votes to finish with an initial and prevailing electoral-vote score of 306. (That number, compared to some previous party-flipping presidential election years, put 2016 Donald Trump on par with 1960 Democratic pickup winner John Kennedy, 1968 Republican pickup winner Richard Nixon, and 1976 Democratic pickup winner Jimmy Carter.)

Not all of Hillary Clinton’s efforts to win the White House were a failure. She actually got Trump to conspicuously underperform margins in Romney/Trump states Texas, Georgia, Arizona, Kansas, and Utah—all which should have solidified Republican margins in a year the party flipped the presidency—as well as Obama/Clinton states California, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Virginia, and Washington, as well as non-state District of Columbia. These add up to 209 electoral votes.

The reason why Hillary Clinton won a 2016 Democratic hold of U.S. Popular Vote was because Donald Trump needed to shift +3.87 percentage points nationwide to be able to win a Republican pickup of the U.S. Popular Vote with a margin of at least +0.01 percentage points. (Mitt Romney lost to Barack Obama by –3.86; it was 47.15% for Romney to 51.01% for Obama.) In this area, Trump failed to achieve. Trump shifted to this necessary level in 26 states. These 26 states comprise 210 electoral votes. (Remember—it takes 270 to win.)

The below map, and when you compare it to the official map (especially the states which appear in light red), help to show why it is possible to have a split outcome—separate winners with the Electoral College (a Republican pickup for Donald Trump) and the U.S. Popular Vote (a Democratic hold for Hillary Clinton). For those states where Trump did have a sufficient shift, at least +3.87, they are shown in red. For those states in which Trump did not have a sufficient shift, they appear in blue.

The U.S. Popular Vote was first recorded in 1824. The presidential election of 2016 marked the fifth time, in a period of 192 years and 49 cycles, that there were separate winners of the U.S. Popular Vote and the Electoral College. This means, for now, there have been 89-percent outcomes in which both were won by the same candidate. That is, of course, a separate topic. One can have that discussion. This blog entry looks back a year ago to reflect on the results of Election 2016.

Red: Donald Trump shifted, at least, by his needed +3.87
Blue: Trump’s shift was not sufficient (to win over U.S. Popular Vote)