This is due to the Republican incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump’s job-approval polls consistently in the 30s percentile range. So, if 2018 turns out to be a midterm wave for the Democrats, Donald Trump will be the No. 1 reason why Republicans will lose as much as the U.S. House, U.S. Senate, and the majority number of governorships.
A December 4, 2017 report from Gallup showed Trump at 72 percent approval from self-identified Republicans, 7 percent from self-identified Democrats, and just 32 percent from self-identified independents. (Sample size from each was not exactly the same. Had they been, that would put Trump at 37 percent. Gallup had him at 35 percent.) The numbers are bad most obviously coming from independents. But, for Trump to be at 72 percent approval from Republicans is nowhere near the typical, say, 88 to 92 percent a presidential nominee and/or winner will garner nationally from same-party voters. It means, heading into 2018, self-identified Republicans do not appear to have the backs of Trump and their political party. It means the independents will, for the most part, cast their general-election votes for the Democrats. It means the Democrats, more motivated to participate in voting than Republicans, will generate a host of pickups—and I think it would be to a point of winning over majorities for U.S. House, U.S. Senate, and Governor.
Where will the Democrats win their pickups? I am going to do some estimating. And I will break it down into separate categories: U.S. House; U.S. Senate; and Governors.
One thing I do want to make certain to mention: None of this influences how I will handle my voting. I am anticipating that the Democratic Party Establishment will get most (or all) of their corporate Democratic incumbents re-nominated; that the newbies who get nominated will be a good number of corporate Democrats; and that there will be slim pickings (if any) of true progressives nominated. I would like to be wrong. So, what this would require of me is to research. But, it can also play out that, should what I mention materialize, I may make a point of denying the Democrats in every office on my general-election ballot.
Let’s say the Democrats do win back the Congress. What will happen after that? They will continue to do everything they can to get Donald Trump re-elected in 2020. And if that happens, the people will be surprised are the sheeple.
The point of this blog entry is awareness for what appears to be taking shape, yes, and for what may play out. It is, most of all, anticipation.
U.S. HOUSE
The screen shot maps from 270toWin.com shows two perspectives on competitive U.S. House races. Those in light shades of red are districts which have a Republican partisan advantage not quite deep as those in solid red (indicated on the first map; the second map grays out those solid red districts as not competitive).
There are just over 60 Republican-held seats—seven of them from California (including Darrell Issa) and six each from New York and Pennsylvania—which are vulnerable. The Democrats need an overall pickup of +25. (Prior to Michigan’s John Conyers retiring, and his seat now vacant, it was +24. But, Michigan #13 is Strongly Democrat.)
The amount of states with competitive U.S. House races are 26. An average of one Democratic pickup for each state are a net gain of +27. An average of one and a half for each state are a net gain of +40. An average of two pickups for each state are a net gain of +54. From those numbers, you can see how these can really add up sufficiently for Democrats to flip the U.S. House.
So, here is the list (going in order of states’s polls’ closing times):
07:00 p.m. ET
• Georgia: #06 (Karen Handel)
• Virginia: #02 (Scott Taylor); #05 (Tom Garrett); #07 (Dave Brat); #10 (Barbara Comstock)
• Indiana #02 (Jackie Walorski)
One thing I do want to make certain to mention: None of this influences how I will handle my voting. I am anticipating that the Democratic Party Establishment will get most (or all) of their corporate Democratic incumbents re-nominated; that the newbies who get nominated will be a good number of corporate Democrats; and that there will be slim pickings (if any) of true progressives nominated. I would like to be wrong. So, what this would require of me is to research. But, it can also play out that, should what I mention materialize, I may make a point of denying the Democrats in every office on my general-election ballot.
Let’s say the Democrats do win back the Congress. What will happen after that? They will continue to do everything they can to get Donald Trump re-elected in 2020. And if that happens, the people will be surprised are the sheeple.
The point of this blog entry is awareness for what appears to be taking shape, yes, and for what may play out. It is, most of all, anticipation.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
U.S. HOUSE
The screen shot maps from 270toWin.com shows two perspectives on competitive U.S. House races. Those in light shades of red are districts which have a Republican partisan advantage not quite deep as those in solid red (indicated on the first map; the second map grays out those solid red districts as not competitive).
There are just over 60 Republican-held seats—seven of them from California (including Darrell Issa) and six each from New York and Pennsylvania—which are vulnerable. The Democrats need an overall pickup of +25. (Prior to Michigan’s John Conyers retiring, and his seat now vacant, it was +24. But, Michigan #13 is Strongly Democrat.)
The amount of states with competitive U.S. House races are 26. An average of one Democratic pickup for each state are a net gain of +27. An average of one and a half for each state are a net gain of +40. An average of two pickups for each state are a net gain of +54. From those numbers, you can see how these can really add up sufficiently for Democrats to flip the U.S. House.
So, here is the list (going in order of states’s polls’ closing times):
07:00 p.m. ET
• Georgia: #06 (Karen Handel)
• Virginia: #02 (Scott Taylor); #05 (Tom Garrett); #07 (Dave Brat); #10 (Barbara Comstock)
• Indiana #02 (Jackie Walorski)
• Kentucky: #06 (Andy Barr)
07:30 p.m. ET
• Ohio: #01 (Steve Chabot); #12 (Open; Patrick Tiberi, retiring)
• North Carolina: #02 (George Holding); #09 (Robert Pittenger)
• West Virginia: #03 (Open; Evan Jenkins, retiring to run for U.S. Senate)
07:30 p.m. ET
• Ohio: #01 (Steve Chabot); #12 (Open; Patrick Tiberi, retiring)
• North Carolina: #02 (George Holding); #09 (Robert Pittenger)
• West Virginia: #03 (Open; Evan Jenkins, retiring to run for U.S. Senate)
08:00 p.m. ET
• Florida: #18 (Brian Mast); #26 (Carlos Curbelo); #27 (Open; Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, retiring)
• Illinois: #06 (Peter Roskam); #12 (Mike Bost); #13 (Rodney Davis); #14 (Randy Hultgren)
• Pennsylvania: #06 (Ryan Costello); #07 (Pat Meehan); #08 (Brian Fitzpatrick); #15 (Open; Charles Dent, retiring); #16 (Lloyd Smucker); #18 (Open; left vacant by resignation of Timothy Murphy)
• New Jersey: #02 (Open; Frank LoBiondo, retiring); #03 (Tom MacArthur); #07 (Leonard Lance); #11 (Rodney Freylinghuysen)
• Maine: #02 (Bruce Poliquin)
09:00 p.m. ET
• Texas: #07 (John Culberson); #21 (Open; Lamar Smith, retiring); #23 (Will Hurd); #32 (Pete Sessions)
• New York: #01 (Lee Zeldin); #11 (Daniel Donovan); #19 (John Faso); #22 (Claudia Tenney); #23 (Tom Reed); #24 (John Katko)
• Michigan: #11 (Open; Dave Trott, retiring)
• Arizona: #02 (Martha McSally)
• Wisconsin: #01 (U.S. House speaker Paul Ryan); #06 (Glenn Grothman)
• Minnesota: #02 (Jason Lewis); #03 (Erik Paulsen)
• Colorado: #06 (Mike Coffman)
• Kansas: #02 (Open; Lynn Jenkins, retiring); #03 (Kevin Yoder)
• Nebraska: #02 (Don Bacon)
• New Mexico: #02 (Open; Steve Pearce, retiring to run for Governor)
10:00 p.m. ET
• Iowa: #01 (Rod Blum); #03 (David Young)
• Utah: #04 (Mia Love)
• Montana: At-Large (Greg Gianforte)
11:00 p.m. ET
• California: #10 (Jeff Denham); #21 (David Valadao); #25 (Steve Knight); #39 (Ed Royce); #45 (Mimi Walters); #48 (Dana Rohrbacher); #49 (Darrell Issa)
• Washington: #08 (Dave Reichert)
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
U.S. SENATE
The screen shot of the U.S. Senate map shows which states are on the schedule for the 2018 midterm elections. Those in white are not scheduled.
The color key is red for Republican hold, blue for Democratic hold, and light shade indicates a pickup. Since a midterm wave—going against the party of the incumbent U.S. president—is largely one-sided, there will be no light red for Republican pickup; just light blue for Democratic pickup. (In the midterm waves for the Republicans of 1994 and 2014, and 2006 for the Democrats, they lost no seats going as the minority prior to winning over a new majority.) Those in beige, which should be in yellow (not an available color-coding option from 270toWin.com) are potential tossups. (If it gets worse for the Republicans.)
With the special 12.12.2017 election in Alabama, resulting in a Democratic pickup for Doug Jones (over Republican nominee Roy Moore), the Democrats will have 49 seats going into 2018. Their path to flipping majority control is first holding all current seats and then flipping Nevada (Dean Heller) and, as it would be the tipping point state, Arizona (Open; Jeff Flake, retiring). At the presidential level, Nevada has been emerging from bellwether to Lean Democratic. (It votes like New Mexico, which is no longer a bellwether state.) And Arizona, which has carried Republican in all but 1996 since 1952, is trending away from Republican to a new bellwether (likely to be flipped in the next Democratic presidential pickup year). Next in line would be Tennessee (Open; Bob Corker, retiring); Texas (Ted Cruz, in a state trending away from the GOP); and Nebraska (Deb Fischer, a Republican pickup winner from 2012).
A twist, which I have considered, could involve Arizona because of John McCain. It is not a pleasure to mention. But, if his condition is one that has him leave the U.S. Senate, in 2018, his Republican-held seat would go on the schedule as a special election, giving the Democrats another pickup opportunity.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
GOVERNORS
The Democrats, who flipped the governorship of New Jersey in 2017, go into the 2018 midterm elections with 16 vs. the 33 for the Republicans. Alaska, which is a tossup, appears on the map for 2018. For a new majority count of at least 26, the Democrats need a pickup of +10. My map has them gaining +9 for 25. The rest of the states, which appear in beige (again, 270toWin.com should have allowed an option of yellow for tossup), are the rest of the path.
Setting aside 2017 New Jersey, eight of the 20 states carried in 2016 by losing Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton have Republican governors. A new majority-count pickup should be heavily concentrated among those eight. In a midterm wave for the Democrats, they should be flipping Maryland and Massachusetts to go along with Illinois. And five of the six states—Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin—which flipped Republican to elect Donald Trump president of the United States. (Florida is the most difficult because, frankly, because the Democrats have been terrible in that state. But, it is a growing state with more congressional districts. So, it is on the radar.)
A lot of this is going to depend on specific candidates. But one thing to keep in mind is this. After Bill Clinton unseated George Bush in 1992, in a Democratic pickup of the presidency, the midterm election wave for the Republicans in 1994 saw that party have the U.S. House from 1995 to 2006 and 2011 to, so far, 2018. Only during the four consecutive years of 2007 to 2010 did the Democrats have the majority with the U.S. House. The majority count of governorships runs parallel to those years. The Republicans had majority counts for governorships from 1995 to 2006 and 2011 to, so far, 2018. The Democrats had majority counts for governorships only during the four years of 2007 to 2010. This is why I mention not just the U.S. House and U.S. Senate but also Governors.
If the midterm elections of 2018 result in a Democratic wave in which Team Blue wins over majorities with the U.S. House and U.S. Senate—and to a level dramatic enough that the Democrats outnumber the Republicans in votes cast, in a D-vs.-R contest, plus with independents (preferring D to R)—that would bring in a sufficient number of Democratic pickups for a new majority of Governors.
No comments:
Post a Comment