Election 2020’s Key Bellwethers: The Rust Belt Trio Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan

On Monday [April 23, 2018], my blog entry was bringing to readers’ attention an interview with Thomas Frank who, not to my surprise, can imagine Donald Trump winning re-election in 2020. I noted, briefly, that I can also imagine how it would unfold. But, I did not get specific. So, with my having written this well ahead of time, I will use today’s date for posting this blog entry. The following is where it actually begins. (Fair warning: This is a long read.)


Two-plus years from the next presidential election, which will be the 59th in U.S. history, and with a scheduled date of [Tuesday,] November 3, 2020, seems a long way off to be making any predictions.

I will go ahead and make one prediction that doesn’t come across as something out of the ordinary or outrageous but, ultimately, makes sense.

I am predicting that the winner of the 2020 United States presidential election will carry the Rust Belt trio of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

Are these particular states special?

Yes.

They were the states which catapulted Donald Trump to victory in 2016.

Wisconsin was the tipping-point state of Election 2016. It was followed, in order, by Pennsylvania and Michigan. (This is why I listed them in that order in this blog entry’s title.)

A tipping-point state is the one whose percentage-points margin, as one ranks all carried states (and non-states and congressional districts) in the column of a presidential winner, tipped the election to the winner. As one lists them and their percentage-points margins, ranked in descending order, one must also track their cumulative electoral votes to reach that tipping point—that 270th electoral vote. (It’s like doing some accounting—with a reconciling of the numbers.) As one does this with 2016 Republican presidential pickup winner Donald Trump—who won 30 states (plus Maine #02) and an initial 306 electoral votes—his No. 28 best-performed state, his Republican pickup of Wisconsin, turns out be the state which gave him his 270th electoral vote. No. 29 Pennsylvania, also a Republican pickup, gave Trump his 290th electoral vote. No. 30 Michigan, a likewise Republican pickup, gave him his 306th electoral vote.


As a reminder: The following is the map from Election 2016. (Light shades are pickups.)

Here were the 30 states, plus the 2nd Congressional District of Maine, carried in 2016 by Republican presidential pickup winner Donald Trump (along with their ranked percentage-points margins):

— Nebraska #03 +54.19 (cum. 1)
01. Wyoming +46.30 (cum. 4)

02. West Virginia +41.68 (cum. 9)

03. Oklahoma +36.39 (cum. 16)

04. North Dakota +35.73 (cum. 19)

05. Idaho +31.76 (cum. 23)

06. Kentucky +29.84 (cum. 31)

07. South Dakota +29.79 (cum. 34)

08. Alabama +27.73 (cum. 43)

09. Arkansas +26.92 (cum. 49)

10. Tennessee +26.01 (cum. 60)

11. Nebraska [statewide] +25.05 (cum. 62)

— Nebraska #01 +20.72 (cum. 63)

12. Kansas +20.42 (cum. 69)

13. Montana +20.23 (cum. 72)

14. Louisiana +19.64 (cum. 80)

15. Indiana +19.01 (cum. 91)

16. Missouri +18.51 (cum. 101)

17. Utah +17.89 (cum. 107)

18. Mississippi +17.80 (cum. 113)

19. Alaska +14.73 (cum. 116)

20. South Carolina +14.27 (cum. 125)

— Maine #02 +10.28 (cum. 126)

21. Iowa +9.41 (cum. 132)

22. Texas +8.98 (cum. 170)

23. Ohio +8.07 (cum. 188)

24. Georgia +5.10 (cum. 204)

25. North Carolina +3.66 (cum. 219)

26. Arizona +3.50 (cum. 230)

— Nebraska #02 +2.23 (cum. 231)

27. Florida +1.19 (cum. 260)

28. Wisconsin +0.76 (cum. 270)—Tipping-Point State

29. Pennsylvania +0.72 (cum. 290)

30. Michigan +0.22 (cum. 306)

Take a look specifically at the six states—appearing in light red—which flipped from the 2012 Democratic (re-elected Barack Obama) to the 2016 Republican (pickup winner Donald Trump) column: Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. But, set aside the 2nd Congressional District of Maine, because, unlike the others, it is not a state. The average percentage-points margin from the six pickup states was +3.39.

If the Democrats unseat Donald Trump in 2020, it will depend on the national shift (2016 to 2020) to more closely estimate what that electoral map would look like. But, with Hillary Clinton having won a Democratic hold of the U.S. Popular Vote, the party would once again win that popular vote. (Hillary held it by +2.09 percentage points; that is, 48.02 percent for Hillary vs. 45.93 percent for Trump.) A 2020 Democratic presidential pickup winner would send that +2.09 margin north by an undetermined level (which may be, just as a guess, in the area of +5 to +8, which means a national shift of +3 to +6).

This would, in theory, flip up to the following: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida and, if there any more, the further potential with Nebraska #02, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia. Perhaps long-established bellwether Ohio would come too. (Ohio has voted with the winner in 14 consecutive presidential election cycles, from 1964–2016. My theory as to why Trump won the Buckeye State by +8 and approximately +447k votes—dramatically above more recent maximums +5 and +275k votes—was that he needed that level of margin from Ohio in order to also flip each of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and, the bluest of that Rust Belt trio, Michigan. He won over Michigan by nearly +11k votes. The 2016 spreads between Ohio and Michigan were +7.85 percentage points and +436k votes.)

If the 2020 Republicans hold the presidency, with re-election for Donald Trump, he would most likely increase national support. (Although the opposite happened with 2012 Barack Obama, this is the historic norm of presidents re-elected to a second term.) A 2020 Trump cannot go from –2.09 to a decline. That would make him lose that back end of his list (the Rust Belt trio)—which comprise 46 electoral votes—and, with the first two ranked as Top 10 populous states and the third ranked No. 20, it would result in Trump getting unseated. So, Trump—if it turns out he gets re-elected—has nowhere to go but up.

Here were the percentage-points margins from the 20 states, plus District of Columbia, which were Democratic holds for 2016 losing nominee Hillary Clinton (and listed in ranked descending order):

— District of Columbia +86.78 (cum. 3)
1. Hawaii +32.18 (cum. 7)
2. California +29.99 (cum. 62)
3. Massachusetts +27.20 (cum. 73)
4. Maryland +26.42 (cum. 83)
5. Vermont +26.41 (cum. 86)
6. New York +22.49 (cum. 115)
7. Illinois +16.89 (cum. 135)
8. Washington +15.71 (cum. 147)
9. Rhode Island +15.51 (cum. 151)
— Maine #01 +14.81 (cum. 152)
10. New Jersey +13.98 (cum. 166)
11. Connecticut +13.64 (cum. 173)
12. Delaware +11.37 (cum. 176)
13. Oregon +10.98 (cum. 183)
14. New Mexico +8.21 (cum. 188)
15. Virginia +5.32 (cum. 201)
16. Colorado +4.91 (cum. 210)
17. Maine [statewide] +2.96 (cum. 212)
18. Nevada +2.42 (cum. 218)
19. Minnesota +1.51 (cum. 228)
20. New Hampshire +0.37 (cum. 232)


The potential of a 2020 re-elected Donald Trump, with increased national support, brings about the likelihood to flip more states. (No one presidential election’s electoral map was later duplicated. And I seriously mean exactly. So, it is unlikely 2020 will exactly mirror 2016.) And those on the list of what carried for Hillary Clinton, and at the back end, leave those carried by +3 percentage points of less especially vulnerable. (That was the national margins increase for re-elections with both 1996 Bill Clinton and 2004 George W. Bush.)

Ultimately, Election 2020 comes down to the Rust Belt trio Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. I don’t envision a map without them ending up carrying for the 2020 winner. Given there was a 0.54 percentage-points margins spread between No. 28 Wisconsin and No. 30 Michigan, it is likely they will carry the same again in 2020.


There are a few more facts to keep in mind:

• Pennsylvania and Michigan are each other’s historically best companion states. Since Michigan, the younger of the two, first voted in 1836, the two have carried the same in all but five elections from 1836–2016. Even more to the point: Since the Republicans’ first victory, with Abraham Lincoln in 1860, Pennsylvania and Michigan carried the same in all 40 election cycles of 1860–2016 but with the exceptions of three: 1932, 1940, and 1976. So, the two have carried the same in 37 of the last 40 elections, a period of 156 years, which is good for a rate of 92.50 percent. (It was no surprise that when a 2016 Donald Trump flipped Pennsylvania, the first of the two projected on Election Night, he also flipped Michigan.) 
• What Pennsylvania and Michigan also have in common is this: Setting aside Franklin Roosevelt—the only U.S. president elected beyond a second term—for all the other presidents who won two terms, and who carried carried Pennsylvania and Michigan with their first election…well, they carried both states with re-election. 
• Over the last ten elections of 1980–2016, the only presidential candidate who lost in both the Electoral College and U.S. Popular Vote, but who carried both Pennsylvania and Michigan, was John Kerry in 2004. (During this period, Wisconsin carried the same as Pennsylvania and Michigan in all with exception of 1988.)

This leads me to my conclusion: When Hillary Clinton failed to hold Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan—marking the first time Wisconsin carried Republican since Ronald Reagan won 49 states with re-election in 1984; the first time Pennsylvania and Michigan carried Republican since George Bush won 40 states in 1988—it moved these former “Blue Firewall” states to a new status of presidential bellwether states.




 FYI 

There is another pattern I picked up on. Mentioning this, above, did not fit seamlessly within the this blog’s topic. And it can be considered bonus material. Simply put, I title it…FYI.

• As the 2008 Democratic presidential pickup winner, Barack Obama flipped a host of [pickup] states’ counties—not in the party’s column in decades—which also carried for his re-election in 2012. They also carried for Hillary Clinton, as she failed to hold the presidency in the Democratic column, in 2016. Among them: Virginia’s Henrico [1948], Loudoun (Leesburg, 1964), and Prince William (Manassas, 1964); Colorado’s Arapahoe (Littleton, 1964), Jefferson (Golden, 1964), and Ouray (Ouray, 1964); Ohio’s Hamilton (Cincinnati, 1964); Nevada’s Washoe (Reno, 1964); and New Mexico’s Los Alamos (Los Alamos, 1964). This also happened with counties in a notable state which did not once carry for Obama: Texas’s Dallas (Dallas, 1964) and Harris (Houston, 1964). 
• As the 2016 Republican presidential pickup winner, Donald Trump also flipped a host of [pickup] states’ counties not in the party’s column in decades. Among them: Wisconsin’s Kenosha (Kenosha, 1972) and Vernon (Viroque, 1984); Pennsylvania’s Erie (Erie, 1984), Luzerne (Wilkes–Barre, 1988), and Northampton (Easton, 1988); Michigan’s Isabella (Mount Pleasant, 1988) and Saginaw (Saginaw, 1984); Ohio’s Montgomery (Dayton, 1988), Portage (Ravenna, 1988), and Trumbull (Warren, 1972); Iowa’s Clinton (Clinton, 1984); Des Moines (Burlington, 1972), Dubuque (Dubuque, 1956), and Muscatine (Muscatine, 1984). This also happened with a county in a notable state which did not carry for Trump: Colorado’s Pueblo (Pueblo, 1972).

Perhaps this is a change in the particular market-to-market makeup of these states’ counties. Perhaps it is an example of some realigning voting patterns. (Pueblo County, Colorado, with its county seat Pueblo, voted the same as the state of Minnesota from 1960 to 2012, both giving during that period sole carriage for a Republican to Richard Nixon with his 49-state re-election in 1972. Perhaps Pueblo County flipping Republican in 2016, for Donald Trump, portends a possible flipping of Minnesota to Trump should he win re-election in 2020. The margins spread—Pueblo County, Colorado vs. Minnesota—was just 2 percentage points.)

Perhaps a part of this goes to what author Thomas Frank has mentioned about the Democratic Party for who they want as voters (affluent people) and who they have gradually abandoned (working class people) over the years. After all, in 2016 Hillary Clinton became the first Democrat to flip and carry California’s Orange County (Santa Ana) for the first time since Franklin Roosevelt won his second term with 46 (of 48) states in 1936.

One thing is certain: Based on what I wrote from this blog’s topic, “Election 2020’s Key Bellwethers: The Rust Belt Trio of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan,” I stated clearly why it is highly likely that the winner of the 2020 presidential election is not going to prevail without all three of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. For Donald Trump, and how he won them over in 2016, it is very doable for him should he win re-election in 2020. For the Democrats, after they nominated in 2016 Hillary Clinton rather than Bernie Sanders, they have a lot of work to do.