Re-nomination for Donald Trump?

45th and current president of the United States Donald Trump is highly likely to win re-nomination from the Republican Party for the 2020 United States presidential election.

Trump’s job-approval percentage of support, from his Republican Party, is around 90 percent.

That has him on pace to win at least re-nomination.

Why is this important?

All 50 states have been participating in presidential primaries since 1976 (Democratic Party) and 1980 (Republican Party). There have been 10 or 11 general-election cycles for the two major parties with this system.

There were two incumbent U.S. presidents—one each from the two major parties—who were unseated: Jimmy Carter (1980), and George Bush (1992). There were four—two from each of the two  major parties—who, during this period, won re-elections to second terms: Ronald Reagan (1984), Bill Clinton (1996), George W. Bush (2004), and Barack Obama (2008).

There were patterns.

Let’s consider first those who were unseated.

In the 1980 Democratic presidential primaries and in the 1992 Republican presidential primaries, Jimmy Carter and George Bush received less than 80 percent of their party’s votes for re-nomination. This also means their chief rivals for their party’s nomination, 1980 Ted Kennedy and 1992 Pat Buchanan, received at least 20 percent.

Here were the results:

1980 DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES
Jimmy Carter, incumbent, re-nominated, 51.1%
Ted Kennedy, 37.6%

1992 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES
George Bush, incumbent, re-nominated, 72.8%
Pat Buchanan, 23.0%

Since the 1976 Democratic presidential primaries and the 1980 Republican presidential primaries, there were four U.S. presidents who won re-election to a second term. Each of them, with winning re-nomination in the primaries, received a level of support that was 9-to-1.

1984 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES
Ronald Reagan, incumbent, re-nominated, 98.8%

1996 DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES
Bill Clinton, incumbent, re-nominated, 89.0%

2004 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES
George W. Bush, incumbent, re-nominated, 98.1%

2012 DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES
Barack Obama, incumbent, re-nominated, 88.9%

Although I have read variations in reports on his job approval, effective April 30, 2019, Gallup has President Trump at 46 percent. (The 2016 general election was: Donald Trump 45.93% vs. Hillary Clinton 48.02%. They combined for 93.95 percent of the vote. Two-party U.S. Popular Vote tends to end up between 97 to 99 percent.) Trump could not have this level of approval if same-party support was not around 90 percent. (I did not get much details.) This puts Trump in position for re-nomination. Given what has gone on with the Democrats, during and after 2016, it may also put him in position for re-election. 10 and 11 cycles, of the periods 1976 and 1980 to 2016, are not a long enough history to read into this thoroughly. It is something. Even though there are nearly two dozen declared 2020 Democratic presidential candidates, if Trump was in position to definitely become unseated in 2020, he would probably draw a Republican primary challenger good enough to reap 20-plus percent in the primaries. And, no, 68th Governor of Massachusetts William Weld appears to be no genuine threat to Trump.