Presidential Primaries

Some observations concerning the 2020 presidential primaries:

On the Republican side, incumbent 45th U.S. president Donald Trump is in position to easily win re-nomination. His party approval, from polls, is approximately 90 percent.

Since all 50 states have been participating with voting in presidential primaries—for the Democrats, it was 1976; for the Republicans, it was 1980—there have been two incumbent U.S. presidents who became unseated. They both came from separate parties. And they both saw at least 20 percent party support reduced and cast for a primaries challenger.

• In 1980, Democratic incumbent U.S. president Jimmy Carter was re-nominated with 51.1 percent. Rival Ted Kennedy received 37.6 percent.

• In 1992, Republican incumbent U.S. president George Bush was re-nominated with 72.8 percent. Rival Pat Buchanan received 23.0 percent.

For all those U.S. presidents, during this period, who won re-elections to a second term, they received approximately (or even above) 90 percent in party support for re-nomination. 

• 1984 Republican incumbent U.S. president Ronald Reagan was re-nominated with 98.8 percent. 

• 1996 Democratic incumbent U.S. president Bill Clinton was re-nominated with 89.0 percent. 

• 2004 Republican incumbent U.S. president George W. Bush was re-nominated with 98.1 percent. 

• 2012 Democratic incumbent U.S. president Barack Obama was re-nominated with 88.9 percent. 

Why is this important? In general elections, in which the two-party vote
combines in the area of 97 to 99 percent (it was considerably less so in 1980, 1992, and 1996; it was almost 94 percent in 2016), Republicans and Democrats receive between 88 to 93 percent in same-party vote. To finish lower than 88 percent, in an election in which there was a range of 97 to 99 percent for the two-party vote, means likely loss.

For the year 2020, with a United States presidential election with a Republican incumbent U.S. president, the question (which cannot factually be answered with this blog topic here on June 10, 2019) is this: Will 2020 become a Republican hold or a Democratic pickup of the presidency of the United States?

The party approval rating suggests Trump is in a fairly good position for re-election. But, from numerous polls, I get the sense it is wise to rate the race, right now, as a tossup. The 1980 to 2016 primaries, and given those were the years of their general elections, was a period of 36 years and 10 election cycles. They represent a lot of years in the life of any individual. (I was 9 in 1980. I was 45 in 2016.) But, I would prefer a longer period of history—for all 50 states participating in the primaries—to use as a guide for whether that 90 percent or better in party approval speaks more clearly to re-election. If Trump does get unseated, I have already mentioned who I think has the ability. What also needs to be considered is how the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries would play out for that nominee with respect for the earliest part of the calendar.

It would not be good to win the first two contests—both Iowa and New Hampshire—because of a well-established pattern.

Starting in 1980, every time the White House switched parties, the Republican or Democratic presidential pickup winner’s first nomination was won with winning not both Iowa and New Hampshire. It was, in almost every example, winning in one of those two states. 

For 2000 Republican pickup winner George W. Bush, he won in Iowa but not New Hampshire. For 1980 and 2016 Republican pickup winners Ronald Reagan and Donald Trump, they prevailed in New Hampshire but not Iowa. The 2008 Democratic pickup winner Barack Obama won in Iowa but not New Hampshire. For 1992 Democratic pickup winner Bill Clinton, there was at least one twist. Iowa was the home state of candidate Tom Harkin. That state was pretty much conceded by others seeking the party’s nomination. (Harkin won Iowa with more than 75 percent.) In New Hampshire, Clinton finished in second. Between the two states, Clinton came a lot closer to winning in New Hampshire and losing Iowa. (Paul Tsongas, who died at age 55 on January 18, 1997, prevailed in New Hampshire by +8.42 percentage points. Given his fate, it may have been for the best that Tsongas did not win the nomination.)

When it came to the last two losing Republican challengers, who failed to unseat Democratic incumbent U.S. presidents, 1996 Bob Dole won in Iowa but not New Hampshire, and 2012 Mitt Romney won in New Hampshire but not Iowa. When it came to the last two losing Democratic challengers, who failed to unseat Republican incumbent U.S. presidents, 1984 Walter Mondale won in Iowa but not New Hampshire, but 2004 John Kerry won in both. And that is what I will address next.

In two consecutive election cycles, 2000 and 2004, the ones which were Republican victories at the presidential level for George W. Bush, losing Democratic nominees Al Gore and John Kerry won both Iowa and New Hampshire. 

Gore won all 50 states as he received 75.4 percent to the 21.0 percent for Bill Bradley. Kerry won 46 states as he received 61.0 percent to the 19.4 percent for top runner-up John Edwards. (In the states count, Edwards won two: his home state North Carolina and neighboring South Carolina. Also on the map, Howard Dean won his home state Vermont, and Wesley Clark of Oklahoma won Arkansas. Reminder: All party nominees won in the primaries their respective home state. For any candidate who failed to carry his or her home state in the primaries [an example with 2016 Republican candidate Marco Rubio as his home state, Florida, was won right out from under him by eventual nominee Donald Trump]…well, that was a contributing factor explaining why that individual did not win his or her party’s nomination.)

The point is this: In a presidential election in which one’s preferred party prevails with party-flipping the White House—whether it is a term-limited year for an incumbent U.S. president or that incumbent U.S. president gets unseated—it is not a good to see a Republican or Democratic presidential pickup winner not well-challenged in the primaries. A lot of people have said they want no such thing. This is not because they don’t want a contest. They feel a lengthy period can become too stressful—and lead to a loss. But, the history shows they should be wanting to see the opposite.

I will not predict, at this time, who will end up the 2020 Democratic nominee for president of the United States. But, I mention all this because I think this past history is worth keeping in mind as we continue to move toward and into the year 2020.