I mentioned that Election 2020, if it switches the White House party from the Republican to the Democratic column, will confirm that we are indeed in a period, favoring the Democrats, which began in 2008. (That the party will have won three of four cycles and, come Election 2024, will move up from four to five—a parallel with the 1968 Republicans going from at least 1968 to 1984.)
In the past realigning periods, there were a few special states that performed like bellwethers during these realigning periods. I will take a moment to cite the ones which applied.
☑ 1860–1892—Republican: No state voted with the winner in all 9 cycles. The closest was Indiana. It voted with the winner in 8 of 9 cycles and backed 1876 U.S. Popular Vote winner Samuel Tilden. So, without fully penalizing states which sided with popular-vote winners, Indiana was good for 8.50 of 9.
☑ 1896–1928—Republican: New Hampshire, North Dakota, and Ohio were carried in all 9 cycles. (The latter two have, so far in history, carried for all Republican winners.)
☑ 1932–1964—Democratic: Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, Rhode Island, and Texas backed all winners. (At the time, Texas had carried for all Democratic winners.)
☑ 1968–2004—Republican: Two states with impeccable reputations as bellwethers, Ohio and Missouri, carried in all. So did neighboring states Tennessee and Kentucky.
If we can count 2008, to an unknown point, this period can look for possibilities in six states for being the most reliably carried.
☑ 2008–20xx—Democratic: Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were carried in 2008 and 2012 (for Democrat Barack Obama) and in 2016 (for Republican Donald Trump). Election 2020 is pending. So are future elections which, if we are indeed in a period in which the presidency is realigned to the Democrats, this can go to, say, 2040 or 2044.
Congratulations to these states’ records! (And to those going forward. My home state is on the list.)
Going on the premise that Election 2008 ushered in a presidential realigning period favoring the Democrats, I ask, “Who will they help?”
The parties do realign.
The 1896 Republicans realigned into a Party for Big Business. (They courted business for elections.)
The 1932 Democrats realigned into what was considered a Party for the People—delivering during that period on Social Security, Medicare, and the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
The 1968 Republicans realigned by combining their servitude to Big Business with overhauling the tax system that is now weighing down the have-nots here in this new decade of the 2020s.
What are the 2008 Democrats going to do?
What would the Democrats become known for, especially with and following the coronavirus pandemic, during this realigning period that would be so favorable for their party?
Today’s Democrats who hold any meaningful power—presumptive 2020 Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden; the party’s leader in the U.S. Senate, Chuck Schumer; and U.S. House speaker Nancy Pelosi—are influenced by the 1968 Republican realigning period of the presidency and its biggest standout, Ronald Reagan. (They are corporatists!)
Given the fact that I cannot answer what will actually happen…a conclusion that may be made is that the United States, with whatever it will get in leadership, but most especially in policies, will finally move in a healthier direction (for the nation and its people)—or it will get taken apart more and more with each coming and passing year.
I supposed the one thing guaranteed is that this will be interesting.
☑ 1896–1928—Republican: New Hampshire, North Dakota, and Ohio were carried in all 9 cycles. (The latter two have, so far in history, carried for all Republican winners.)
☑ 1932–1964—Democratic: Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, Rhode Island, and Texas backed all winners. (At the time, Texas had carried for all Democratic winners.)
☑ 1968–2004—Republican: Two states with impeccable reputations as bellwethers, Ohio and Missouri, carried in all. So did neighboring states Tennessee and Kentucky.
If we can count 2008, to an unknown point, this period can look for possibilities in six states for being the most reliably carried.
☑ 2008–20xx—Democratic: Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were carried in 2008 and 2012 (for Democrat Barack Obama) and in 2016 (for Republican Donald Trump). Election 2020 is pending. So are future elections which, if we are indeed in a period in which the presidency is realigned to the Democrats, this can go to, say, 2040 or 2044.
Congratulations to these states’ records! (And to those going forward. My home state is on the list.)
Going on the premise that Election 2008 ushered in a presidential realigning period favoring the Democrats, I ask, “Who will they help?”
The parties do realign.
The 1896 Republicans realigned into a Party for Big Business. (They courted business for elections.)
The 1932 Democrats realigned into what was considered a Party for the People—delivering during that period on Social Security, Medicare, and the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
The 1968 Republicans realigned by combining their servitude to Big Business with overhauling the tax system that is now weighing down the have-nots here in this new decade of the 2020s.
What are the 2008 Democrats going to do?
What would the Democrats become known for, especially with and following the coronavirus pandemic, during this realigning period that would be so favorable for their party?
Today’s Democrats who hold any meaningful power—presumptive 2020 Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden; the party’s leader in the U.S. Senate, Chuck Schumer; and U.S. House speaker Nancy Pelosi—are influenced by the 1968 Republican realigning period of the presidency and its biggest standout, Ronald Reagan. (They are corporatists!)
Given the fact that I cannot answer what will actually happen…a conclusion that may be made is that the United States, with whatever it will get in leadership, but most especially in policies, will finally move in a healthier direction (for the nation and its people)—or it will get taken apart more and more with each coming and passing year.
I supposed the one thing guaranteed is that this will be interesting.
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