Last week, Gallup reported U.S. president Joe Biden has a job-approval—latest numbers—of 37 percent.
This is, of course, nationwide.
His job-approval percentage with self-identified Democrats is at 75.
His job-approval percentage with self-identified Independents—which is really a category for all who are outside the two major U.S. political parties (but without citing a specific third party)—is at 39.
Given the date of this blog topic, the good news for President Biden is that we are not yet heading into November of 2024. We are still in 2023. But, certainly from the position of Biden and his administration as well as the Democratic Party, this is a problem.
His job approval with his party should be at least 90 percent.
His job approval with Independents should be, at a minimum, in the upper-40s percentile range.
My feeling is this: If Election 2024 ends up a Democratic hold for U.S. President—specifically with Joe Biden or anyone who would replace him—the U.S. Popular Vote would be a minimum 5-point margin (up from +4.45 from 2020)—and for reasons I will explain in next week’s blog topic.
I think, with 53 weeks from Election Day, this is considerably important. It does not mean Biden’s approval will not increase. (You can see from the following chart the status of post-World War II U.S. presidents on the same timeline. I consider 2011 Barack Obama. I also consider 2019 Donald Trump.) But, it can also mean that, come October 2024, the approval on Biden would also suggest, as it does now, he would not win re-election…and that the White House incumbent Democratic Party—no matter their general-election nominee—would not be able to hold the presidency.
In the meantime, I will leave a link to this Gallup report.
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