The fallout from the June 27, 2024 presidential debate has the Democratic Party, with or without re-nomination for incumbent Joe Biden, facing electoral devastation.
Gallup reports Biden, from June 3–24, 2024, is polling at 38 percent.
Post-debate, some national and state-to-state polls show movement in the direction of 2024 Republican nominee and former U.S. president Donald Trump. Some polls have reported a national lead of R+6.
There now appears to a be a change in the trajectory of this election race.
At least one internal Democratic Party poll shows No. 11 populous state New Jersey—which ranked the No. 13 best state in percentage-points margins for the 2020 Democrats (No. 38 for the Republicans)—is in play and can flip. (It last carried Republican in 1988.)
States like Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine (statewide), Virginia, and New Mexico (Nos. 15 to 19 for the 2020 Democrats; Nos. 32 to 36 for the Republicans) are now in play.
Some of these states connect to other states which vote like them: Minnesota with New Hampshire; New Mexico with Nevada; Virginia with Colorado; New Jersey with Illinois with California; slotted in this area is Oregon (No. 12 for the 2020 Democrats; No. 39 for the Republicans) which votes like neighboring Washington.
I think this may be an early preview of an expanding electoral map that is only beginning to warm up.
We may or will experience the first United States presidential election since 1988 with a minimum of 40 carried states. Some specific information, in this topic, will focus on this possibly playing out.
From 1992 to 2020, no winner carried more than 32 states. Average number of carried states, with those eight election cycles, were 29. Prevailing Republicans averaged 30 carried states. Prevailing Democrats averaged 28 carried states. To go to 40, which means 80 percent of all states get carried, would be refreshing.
A U.S. presidential election with 40 or more carried states can be described as a Landslide and/or a Wipeout and/or Epic. I consider it an absolute Consensus.
A 4-to-1 ratio of states carried vs. those not carried is healthier than the 3-to-2 ratio played out from 1992 to 2020. It helps discredit some of the propagandistic narratives of there being overwhelming divide among citizens in a Red States–vs.–Blue States United States.
We have had plenty of these Consensus outcomes. During the 20th century, we had eleven: 1912, 1928, 1932, 1936, 1952, 1956, 1964, 1972, 1980, 1984, and 1988.
This nation is overdue.
How will this happen?
Citizens, in response to the presidency of Joe Biden, and overall conditions, will vote to blow out—and blow away—the 2024 Democratic Party.
This is due to every issue—most especially Inflation—which has The People not willing to renew the incumbent White House party for the next four years.
The U.S. Democratic Party is imploding while the Biden presidency is collapsing.
Electoral Map
The map is so alarming for the 2024 Democrats … there is no point of coloring anything Blue.
Solid Red are 2020-to-2024 Republican holds for Trump. (He starts with his 2020 outcome of 25 carried states, plus Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, and 235 electoral votes.)
Light Red are 2020 Democratic-to-2024 Republican pickups. (These are the six commonly focused “Swing States” and, below, I offer an estimate for where they may rank as the Republicans’s No. 26 to No. 31—and to No. 50—for best-performed in their percentage-points margins. Slots.)
These “Swing States” combine for +77 electoral votes to bring the map to a minimum 312 electoral votes. (That is, realistically, the starting point.)
For those not colored in Blue, most are vulnerable to a 40-state (or 40-plus state) loss suffered by the 2024 Democrats: They go on the “Watch” list, rather than me focusing on which ones will hold, and appear in Yellow.
Biden’s last name appears in brackets whether or not he ends up his party’s official 2024 nominee.
Reaching 40 States (and Beyond)
In 2020, Trump lost to Biden in the U.S. Popular Vote, 46.80% vs. 51.26%, by a margin of –4.45 percentage points. Let’s call it … –4.
Given that Biden’s job approval is a constant struggle for 40 percent, this area of high-30s to low-40s percent may be the best a 2024 Democratic nominee can get in the U.S. Popular Vote.
Before all this, I would have guessed a 3-point national margin: Biden 46% vs. Trump 49%. (The remaining five percent combine for all other candidates.)
Given this new change in trajectory: We may be in 1980 Jimmy Carter-vs.-Ronald Reagan territory. The former received 41.01%. The latter received 50.75%. Reagan carried 44 states. In this case: Biden (or Substitute Nominee) vs. Trump would be in the area of 39 or 40 vs. 50 or 51 percent. The two-party vote combine for, say, 90 to 91 percent. All other candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (perhaps good for 5 to 7 percent nationally), can reap a considerable share of votes the Democrats lose from their party coalition, who they have been alienating, but who would not opt to vote for Trump.
Considering all this…
I estimate Trump will reach 40 carried states if he wins the U.S. Popular Vote by +8. (This was the experience of 1988 George Bush. He carried 40 states and 426 electoral votes.) This would become achieved by a net gain of +12 percentage points.
To go from a national loss of –4 to a win by +8 percentage points, and with a net gain of +15 states (after having carried 25 in 2020), would average +1.25 states with each percentage point nationally shifted. Every +4 percentage points nationally shifted would yield a pickup of +5 states.
U.S. Popular Vote, Percentage-Points Margin, in Relation to Carried Number of States
• R+0: carry 30 states (probable order of pickups: Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania)
• R+4: carry 35 states (Michigan, Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, Minnesota, New Hampshire, statewide Maine, New Mexico)
• R+8: carry 40 states (Virginia, Colorado, Oregon, New Jersey, Illinois)
• R+12: carry 45 states (Maine’s 1st Congressional District, Washington, New York, Connecticut, California, Delaware)
• R+16: carry 50 states (Rhode Island, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Vermont)
• R+17: carry District of Columbia
All this cannot necessarily be guaranteed. From one election to the next, not everything ends up ranking in the same slot numbers. But, the above list is not far off. The first three groups—No. 26 Georgia to No. 40 Illinois—is accurate (or accurate enough). Getting past 40 carried states is a bit more guess work. (In 2020, the Democrats’s four best states, following non-state District of Columbia, were: Vermont, Massachusetts, Maryland, and Hawaii. I rank Rhode Island closely with Hawaii because the two have voted the same since the Aloha State joined the Union and first voted in 1960.)
One more point to consider: In the 1992–2020 period, the highest number of carried Top 10 populous states has been 8. (This was applicable to 1996 Bill Clinton and 2008 Barack Obama.) To surpass 40 states, usually one reaches a ninth Top 10 state. Since after the Civil War, 1936 Franklin Roosevelt, 1964 Lyndon Johnson, and 1980 and 1984 Ronald Reagan carried all of the Top 10. The number of states a presidential winner carries tends to see close to 25 percent of that represented by one’s number of carried Top 10 states. Getting past 40 carried states, Trump would be on his way to No. 9 New York and, if he can sufficiently shift it, No. 10 California.
I will post in the Comments section some videos which are related to this topic.
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