2025 Republicans Become ‘Party A’

On the Thursday, December 12, 2024 episode of Due Dissidence, a segment was shown in which New York governor Kathy Hochul, at a press conference, announced a proposal for state residents: refunds of $300 (single resident) and $500 (family). Source: $300-$500 refund payments for New Yorkers? Governor Kathy Hochul announces new proposal for 2025.

The details are not so important. Suffice to say, the co-hosts—especially Keaton Weiss—were not impressed.

In 2022, after Andrew Cuomo had resigned, Hochul won a first full-term election. She defeated Republican challenger Lee Zeldin. But, in a bad year for Democrats (they lost control of the United States House of Representatives), Hochul won by only +5 percentage points. Given a 2020 Joe Biden carried New York by +23 points, this was terrible.

That 2022 performance suggested Hochul is weak. She may be. There may be Democratic colleagues who will primary-challenge her in 2026.

There is more to consider. 

Next week, on Monday, January 20, 2025, Donald Trump starts his second non-consecutive term. 

With the overall results from Election 2024, we will see throughout the rest of 2025—and in 2026—that party control for U.S. President, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House are with the Republicans.

Trifecta.

What this also means is, going into the midterm elections of 2026, the incumbent party for both houses of Congress will be the Republicans.

I added to the Due Dissidence discussion the following comment:

This is no assumption from me.

Since 2006, when combining election cycles which were midterm and presidential elections, there is only one year on record in which the controlling party (or parties) ended up holding with all three of U.S. President, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House.

That was in 2012. 

It was a year in which incumbent Democrats won holds for U.S. President (re-election for Barack Obama) and U.S. Senate. Republicans won a hold for U.S. House. (See above chart.)

In all other years (nine of ten election cycles)—and please keep in mind 100 percent of the U.S. House goes on the schedule every two years (even-numbered years)—there was a party-control switch for at least one of the three levels.

Furthermore…

Since 2008, only one year did we not see a party switch for U.S. President. 

That was in 2012. 

In each of the last three election cycles—2016, 2020, and 2024—we have experienced party switches for U.S. President. 

What likely explains this is the United States, and its citizens, are at a bad point in our history.

Historically, the record is four consecutive cycles. 

They occurred at two separate points during the 19th century. 

There were the four in a row in 1840 (Whig), 1844 (Democratic), 1848 (Whig), and 1852 (Democratic). Later in the century, four in a row also played out in 1884 (Democratic), 1888 (Republican), 1892 (Democratic), and 1896 (Republican).

This did not transpire during the 20th century. 

The nation experienced two consecutive elections for switching party control for U.S. President. 1976 was a Democratic pickup (for Jimmy Carter). 1980 was a Republican pickup (as Carter was unseated by Ronald Reagan). So, there was more stability.

The way people are handling their voting, nowadays, is not difficult to understand. The overall well-being for the nation—and most especially its people—is very bad. And so the voters respond with: 

Deliver for us—or we will switch control from Party A to Party B.