The website VoteHub recently captured my attention. I had come across plenty related tweets on X. It is a site which tracks electoral chances (using the word Probability)—but I opt, in this blog, for the word Odds—especially for the 2026 United States midterm elections.
My general prediction remains the same: 2026 Democratic majorities pickups for both the U.S. House and the U.S. Senate…as well as for an overall number for U.S. Governors. And this is now common with others who discuss or even offer their predictions.
I open the month of October 2026, with one month from the general election, with a look at the U.S Senate. My predictions will come in a future blog—I have not decided yet on October 16 (the next scheduled) or November 1 (which is two days from the general)—but I will commit to offering final predictions.
In the meantime: This blog topic focuses on U.S. Senate; the Odds (according to VoteHub); and with a cutoff of a majority 52 seats. The chart lists the probable order, according to percentage-points margins, and we have 35 seats on the schedule. (A regular 33 plus two special races in Ohio and Florida for the seats, won in 2022, by U.S. vice president JD Vance and U.S. secretary of state Marco Rubio.) Democrats, for the count, follow their 34 with their No. 35. The Republicans, for the count, follow their 31 with their No. 32. So, of the scheduled 35 seats—13 are already blue; 22 are already red—the 2026 Democrats need to retain all they currently hold and win a net gain of +4. That would take their incoming total 47 to a majority 51. The would-be 2026 Democratic pickups are shaded in light blue on the chart. (I apologize for any confused wording. Image is better seen by zooming in.)
