‘Tossup,’ Once More

Last week saw coverage of recent polls reporting Democatic presidential nominee and U.S. vice president Kamala Harris is losing ground…and that she may lose the 2024 U.S. presidential election to Republican nominee and former U.S. president Donald Trump.

This is three weeks from the general election scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024. There are several matters to consider. I am, at this point, rating Election 2024: U.S. President an absolute Tossup. 

Commonly focused “Swing States”—appearing on the above map in Yellow—will be most instrumental with determining overall outcome for this election. (They may all get carried.)

I will post in Comments some recent videos which are related to this week’s topic.

Top 10 States: Alignment for U.S. President

This week’s blog topic relates not only to Election 2024, for U.S. President, but also applies going forward. It speaks to historic pattern. Considerable influence as well. That this is likely to continue. 

The above map, with colors, are the U.S.’s Top 10 most-populous states. 

This is relevant because The Top 10 bares much influence electorally. They add up to 254 of the 270 electoral votes required for election the presidency of the United States.

The Top 10 also comprise between 53 to 54 percent as the home states for all U.S. citizens. 

Source: US States — Ranked by Population 2024 …

Historically, no past U.S. presidential election was won with less than 4 of the Top 10 populous states. The last time that a winner carried only 4 was George W. Bush in the 2000s. In his column were his home state Texas along with North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio. The 6 remaining Top 10 states—California. New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Michigan and, then-ranked among the Top 10, New Jersey—were in the columns for losing Democrats Al Gore and John Kerry.

(Separate note: During the 1990s and 2000s, New Jersey still ranked among the Top 10 most-populous states. Georgia and North Carolina went back and forth of being in and out of the Top 10. Since the 2010s, New Jersey fell to rank No. 11 and both Georgia and North Carolina—which dethroned a formerly No. 8 Michigan—are now comfortable Top 10 states.)

Since 1992, no one has carried more than 32 states. No winner has carried more than 8 of the Top 10 states. 1996 Bill Clinton and 2012 Barack Obama reached. 1992 Clinton, 2012 Obama, and 2016 Trump carried 7. A 2020 Biden carried 6.

Most presidential winners have carried 6 or more Top 10 states.

The above map’s color-coding recognizes where each Top 10 state is currently aligned. 

This regards where they rank among best-performed states in percentage-points margins by which a state carries (or does not).

States appearing in purple are leading (Michigan and Pennsylvania) and rising (Georgia)—as well as sleeper (North Carolina)—bellwethers.

The following are each Top 10 populous state’s “Probable Order in Rank” for the Democratic and Republican parties:

On the top map, I have Texas appearing in light red. It is for the following reason: The next year on record the Democrats have a U.S. presidential election in which they carry not only 6 or 7 but up to 8 of the nation’s Top 10 populous states … what will come in as their No. 8 is Texas. 

(Another separate note: The Democrats, given the current electoral structure, would not reach their No. 9 Florida and No. 10 Ohio. They transformed, in 2016, from former leading bellwether states to realign Republican. This trajectory is at a point in which Texas is about to become bluer than Florida and Florida is about to become redder than Texas.)

Texas is in light red, to suggest Lean Republican, due to its trendline toward the Democrats. During the presidency of George W. Bush, won in 2000 and 2004, it was the Democrats’s No. 41 best state. With the Republicans’s 2008 and 2012 losses, Texas was the Democrats’s No. 36 best state. Although Trump was a 2016 Republican pickup winner, Texas became the Democrats’s No. 29 best state. And in 2020, with Biden having unseated Trump, Texas ranked the Democrats’s No. 28 best state. (Florida was No. 27.) Since 1992, prevailing Democrats have averaged 28 carried states. They can reach and carry Texas if they win the presidency with 8 of the Top 10.

If you want to look at this as well from the Republicans’s position … reverse their “Probable Order” and, lately, they’re good for up to 7 of the Top 10. That is what 2016 Trump experienced. The same 7 states, if he wins a second non-consecutive term here in 2024, will end up in his column.

Election 2024: U.S. Senate [Preview]

Last week addressed the current status, “The Race,” on the 2024 United States presidential election.

This week is the U.S. Senate. 

All states in yellow are susceptible to seeing their Democratic-held seats potentially flip Republican. 

Three of these states have an alignment for the Republicans for U.S. President: Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia. And the third-mentioned state is guaranteed to flip. (This is why it is in light red.)

Five of the seven “Tossup” states, a common focus on the “Swing States,” are on the schedule: Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. (Exceptions: Georgia and North Carolina.)

I want to offer the following for consideration:

Established Patterns

🟣 Since 1976, every U.S. presidential election in which Wisconsin had a scheduled U.S. Senate election resulted in same-party carriage. Winning Democrats: 1976 (Jimmy Carter and William Proxmire); 1988 (Michael Dukakis and Herb Kohl); 1992 (Bill Clinton and Russ Feingold); 2000 (Al Gore and Kohl); 2004 (John Kerry and Feingold); and 2012 (Barack Obama and Tammy Baldwin who is the incumbent whose seat is on the schedule here in 2024). Winning Republicans: 1980 (Ronald Reagan and Bob Kasten); and 2016 (Donald Trump and Ron Johnson).

🟣 Since the Republican Party won their first U.S. presidential election with Abraham Lincoln in 1860, Pennsylvania has not had both its U.S. Senate seats in the column for the Democratic Party for longer than four years. In the midterm elections of 2022, John Fetterman was a Democratic pickup winner. If Bob Casey wins re-election, with this seat next on the schedule in 2030, the Democrats will break this pattern.

Recent Elections

🟣 In 2016, every state which was on the schedule for U.S. Senate carried for the same party which won that given state for U.S. President. This was the first time this ever occurred in the history of U.S. presidential elections. 

🟣 In 2020, this pattern repeated. Well, it did in all states except Maine. A state with a split allocation of its electoral votes, Democrats Joe Biden and Sara Gideon won the 1st Congressional District while Republicans Donald Trump and Susan Collins won the 2nd Congressional District. Statewide winners: Biden and Collins.

Current Election

States which are “Tossup” but are accompanied with a checkmark may be key. 

We may see same-party outcomes—U.S. President and U.S. Senate—in potentially all of Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin … as voting citizens may opt to align their votes for the same given party.

Those five states are all currently in the column for the Democrats. Two such states—Arizona [Kyrsten Sinema] and Michigan [Debbie Stabenow]—who are retiring. 

The following is a list with the probable order for each major party. The Republicans enter this race with 49 seats and have a good-as-guaranteed pickup for a 50th seat with flipping West Virginia. (This is for current governor Jim Justice over Wheeling mayor Glenn Elliott.) In percentage-points margins, Republicans’s 51st seat would likely be Montana. If Democrats hold the U.S. Senate, their 50th seat would also likely be Montana. I think the Big Sky State will be the Tipping-Point State/Seat for overall outcome in elections with the 2024 U.S. Senate.

Election 2024: The Race [U.S. President]

We are six weeks from Election Day, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024, and I am not fully confident to predict who—Democratic incumbent U.S. vice president Kamala Harris or previous Republican-affiliated U.S. president Donald Trump—will win this election. (Side note: Effective with this publishing date, I am sensing it is Harris, rather than Trump, who has a slight advantage.)

The polls favored Harris, after U.S president Joe Biden dropped out, for much of August. During the early weeks of September, it has been looking better for Trump. It’s a back-and-forth thing. (More polls lean favorably to Harris.)

The map is a return to the focused “Swing States” which were polled from, say, November 2023 through at least the first half of 2024. They are each a “Tossup” and in Yellow. “Tossup” is centered because their combined 94 electoral votes make the mathematical difference with reaching 270. Solid Blue [incumbent party] and Red [opposition party] would be 2020-to-2024 party holds.

On the “Tossup” list: Nevada was a 2016-to-2020 Democratic hold … Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia were 2016 Republican-to-2020 Democratic pickups … North Carolina was a 2016-to-2020 Republican hold. They all have the potential to end up in the column for the winner. (Frankly, nearly all or all are likely to do just that.)

If Kamala Harris wins this election, her electoral-map potential are 26 carried states, plus Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District and District of Columbia, for up to 319 electoral votes.

If Donald Trump wins this election, his electoral-map potential are 31 carried states, plus Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, for up to 313 electoral votes.

I will note a historic fact: There has been no past United States presidential election’s electoral map which was later duplicated. 

An easy companion is with looking at winners from the same party.

In 2000 and 2016, then-Republican presidential pickup winners George W. Bush and Trump each carried 30 states. Their maps were different. Carried by Bush: Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia. Carried by Trump: Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin plus Maine’s 2nd Congressional District. 

Here in 2024, if it turns out Democratic nominee Harris wins and carries 26 states, she will match that number with 2012 re-elected Democrat Barack Obama. Their maps would also be different. Carried by Obama: Florida, Iowa, and Ohio plus Maine’s 2nd Congressional District. Carried by Harris: Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina plus Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.

At least one of those in Yellow, with respect to Elections 2020 to 2024, will change color.

Note to Readers: 

This is my last electoral-map preview for Election 2024 [U.S. President]. Numerous states begin early and absentee voting in October. (This includes my home state Michigan.) The next electoral map for U.S. President will be my predictions. That will publish Monday, October 28, 2024. The following week will be the elections. That will publish on Election Day, Tuesday, November 5, 2024, at 12:00 a.m. ET.

Wednesday, September 25, 2024 will mark the seventh anniversary for Progressives Chat.

Thank you, to Everyone, and most especially to cathyx (who helped me with its launch), for the continuation of this blog site.

I want to keep going.

‘Manichaean’

 

Garland Nixon—a superb commentator on politics—published to YouTube on August 19, 2024 this interesting and insightful take on the current Democratic Party and their Loyal Voters.

It is titled ”Why Democrats Believe That All Votes Go to Trump.”

He has some observations which may not necessarily have occurred to people prior to watching this video.

This is highly recommended viewing. Its running time is 35 minutes. I am curious if Progressives Chat readers may want to respond.

Now Recommended Among Videos: Racket News

A new addition to Videos is Racket News. 

It is from Matt Taibbi. His co-host is Walter Kirn.

Among the videos on the channel is its coverage of last week’s presidential debate.

I am certain I will, going forward, post videos by Racket News in the Comments.

Note to Readers:

Next Monday, September 23, 2024, will be the start of numerous election topics. This will be timed six weeks from the general election, Tuesday, November 5, 2024, and I graciously apologize in advance for any sense of overkill.

September 2024: Break Week #02

 

This is the second of a two-week break. 

Above video, like last week, is also music—by Neil Diamond—which is appropriate for this month. 

Regular blog topics will return next Monday, September 16, 2024, at 06:00 a.m. ET.

September 2024: Break Week #01

I will be taking a two-week break from blog topics.

Next week’s blog topic, also a “Break Week,” will publish Sunday, September 8, 2024.

A new topic will get published Monday, September 16, 2024 at 06:00 a.m. ET.

In the meantime: Given the month is new, I have an appropriate song from the sensational music group Earth, Wind & Fire—who were so prominent particularly during the second half of the 1970s—and anyone in the mood to add some music in Comments is welcomed to do so.

I also wish everyone a pleasant Labor Day holiday.

⭐️🌟⭐️🌟⭐️

Reminder (of a post, by me, in the Comments from Friday, August 30, 2024):

🟢 PROGRAMMING NOTE 🟢  

The Jimmy Dore Show will have episodes … on Tuesday [September 3, 2024] and Wednesday [September 4, 2024]. …  Friday [September 6, 2024 may] be an off day due to travel for a performance.