Election 2024: Here at Last!

Election Day—and, afterward, Election Night—has arrived.

Election 2024 is the 60th quadrennial presidential election in the history of the United States.

This blog topic publishes on Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 12:00 a.m. ET for good reason: The Dixville Notch votes in New Hampshire occur just after midnight (Eastern Time). And they are considered the traditional beginning of Election Day.

According to Wikipedia’s page, ‘Dixville Notch: Midnight tradition voting’: “Dixville Notch is best known in connection with its longstanding midnight vote in the U.S. presidential election, including during the New Hampshire primary, the first primary election in the U.S. presidential nomination process. In a tradition that started in the 1960 election, all the eligible voters in Dixville Notch gather at midnight in the ballroom of The Balsams. The voters cast their ballots and the polls are officially closed when all of the registered voters have voted—sometimes merely one minute later. The results of the Dixville Notch vote in both the New Hampshire primary and the general election are traditionally broadcast around the country immediately afterwards.”

The above map, for the 2024 election for U.S. President, is initially presented with white coloring prior to the polls closing in a select number of states at 07:00 p.m. ET. I will be updating the map, some in the Comments section, and periodically and gradually with the top map until all the results are in.

I will be contributing to Due Dissidence during its Election Night coverage. I will not be appearing on camera. So, while I may be slow to do any updating here, during the evening, I will not neglect this site.

I encourage readers of Progressives Chat to post anything of mind—whether or not specific to these elections—as this week’s blog topic will be good through next Monday at 05:59 a.m. ET.

The next blog topic will publish, as normally scheduled, Monday, November 11, 2024 at 06:00 a.m. ET.

Gender Vote

The gender gap, as often referred, is Democrats carrying Females before they may also carry Males; Republicans carrying Males before they would also carry Females. The last elections in which both genders carried for a prevailing Republican and Democrat were in 1988 (George Bush) and 2008 (Barack Obama). I will be looking at the Gender Vote nationwide, for the U.S. Popular Vote, and state to state. (Not all states exit-poll.) Here were the results from Election 2020:

• Female (53): Joe Biden 56% • Donald Trump 41%

• Male (47): Joe Biden 45% • Donald Trump 53%

• Margins: D+15 (Female) • R+8 (Male)

• Math: D+15 – R+8 = D+7; divide by 2 = D+3.50; Adjusted (Actual Outcome): D+4.45

  

‘Swing States’: Bellwether Counties Watch

I consider the following “Swing States’s” counties which will indicate who will carry a given state. They have been reliably backing statewide presidential winners. 

🟣 Pennsylvania: Erie and Northampton

🟣 Michigan: Saginaw

🟣 Wisconsin: Door

🟣 Arizona: Maricopa

🟣 Georgia: None Applicable

🟣 North Carolina: New Hanover

🟣 Nevada: Washoe 

Election 2024 Prediction: Trump … Vance … Republican Trifecta

Next week is the 2024 United States presidential election … along with other races and ballot issues. 

“Election Day 2024” will publish Tuesday, November 5, 2024, at 12:00 a.m. ET.

This prediction is final.

In the meantime… 

🇺🇸

I predict Donald Trump, from Florida, will win re-election to a second, non-consecutive term to become the next and 47th president of the United States.

I predict JD Vance, from Ohio, will win election to become the next and 50th vice president of the United States.

I predict the overall outcome for Election 2024 will be the Trifecta for the Republican Party: U.S. President, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House.

While the 2024 Republicans will win a pickup for U.S. President, I predict they will also win a pickup for the U.S. Senate while retaining a majority hold for control for the U.S. House.

Coming into Election 2024, the Democrats have established 51 percent for both U.S. President (in 2020, Joe Biden’s U.S. Popular Vote was 51.26%) and U.S. Senate (in 2022, the Democrats ended up with 51 of its 100 seats). The Republicans also established 51 percent for U.S. House (in 2022, they ended up with 222 of its 435 seats).

It is highly likely, with the overall results of Election 2024, one of these two major political parties will end up with the Trifecta. It looks better for the Republicans. 

I will present maps on U.S. President and U.S. Senate. But, due to more complexity and a difficult visual illustation, I will not follow suit for U.S. House.

🇺🇸

Please note these colors on maps: Solid shade is for party hold. Light shade is for party pickup.

U.S. President

• Winner: Donald Trump

• Winning Ticket: Donald Trump (R–Florida) and JD Vance (R–Ohio)

• Prevailing Party: Republican—pickup

• U.S. Popular Vote [Estimate]: Donald Trump 50% • Kamala Harris 47%

• Percentage-Points Margin [Estimate]: R+3

• Electoral College: 31 states, plus Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, and 312 electoral votes

• 2020-to-2024 Electoral College Change: Republican pickups of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin

🇺🇸

U.S. Senate

• Prevailing Party: Republican—pickup

• U.S. Senate [Outcomes with Minimums]: Democratic 43 • Republican 52; five are not predicted … but they all are states/seats currently in the column for the Democrats

• 2022-to-2024 U.S. Senate Change: Republican pickups of West Virginia [Jim Justice, in an Open race]: Montana [Tim Sheehy, unseating Jon Tester]; and Ohio [Bernie Moreno, unseating Sherrod Brown]

• Watch (in Yellow): Arizona [Kari Lake vs. Ruben Gallego, in an Open race]; Michigan [Mike Rogers vs. Elissa Slotkin, in an Open race]; Nevada [Sam Brown vs. incumbent Jacky Rosen]; Pennsylvania [David McCormick vs. incumbent Bob Casey]; and Wisconsin [Eric Hovde vs. incumbent Tammy Baldwin]

🇺🇸

U.S. House

• Prevailing Party: Republican—hold

• U.S. Popular Vote [Estimate]: Democratic 47% • Republican 50%

• Percentage-Points Margin [Estimate]: R+3

• U.S. House [Estimate]: Democratic 211–215 • Republican 220–224

• 2022-to-2024 U.S. House Change: Republican –2 to +2

The U.S. House Popular Vote

The trajectory of this 2024 United States presidential election has turned in favor for Donald Trump.

Polls show he is leading in nearly or all the commonly focused “Swing States.”

I will make my predictions next week, for Monday, October 28, 2024.

(The following week, for Tuesday, November 5, 2024, will focus on Election Day.)

Why am I not going ahead with Election 2024 predictions this week?

There is good reason.

Since the year 2000, specifically in United States presidential elections, the party which won the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. House also prevailed for U.S. President.

This includes the last two Republican pickup years of 2000 and 2016—for George W. Bush and Trump—who did not carry the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. President. (Bush succeeded with re-election in 2004.)

Given this, I am following Real Clear Politics’s tracking of the “Generic Congressional Vote.” 

I anticipate—and expect—this pattern will hold.

The above chart are results from Elections 2000–2020. 

The percentage-points margins—U.S. President vs. U.S. House—have been closely connected. Average, over six election cycles, was only 1.94 percentage points in margin.

The below images are from Real Clear Politics effective Sunday, October 20, 2024. 

The U.S. House is on the schedule every two years. Even-numbered years. With that, they cannot skip an election cycle. The full 100 recent of its seats are scheduled.

Here were the results, in 2022, when Republicans won pickup control for the U.S. House:

If Election 2024 ends up a Democratic hold, to elect Kamala Harris, these numbers may closely reflect national outcomes for U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. President vs. U.S. House. (I sense Democratic percentage-points margins, for U.S. President and U.S. House, to be +5 and +2 or +3.)

If Election 2024 ends up a Republican pickup for U.S. President, to re-elect Trump to a second non-consecutive term, I would anticipate—not unlike the Democrats—the 2024 Republicans to carry the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. House. (I sense Republican percentage-points margins, for U.S. President and U.S. House, to be –1 to +3 and +0 to +4.)

The Democrats are narrowly ahead with this aggregate of polls. Typically the margin of error, for polls, are between 3 to 5 points. This suggests, if this holds, they would flip the U.S. House. This is due to the 2022 Democrats having lost control of the U.S. House, with a minority 213 seats, and a U.S. Popular Vote percentage-points margin of –2.72. This would likely come with Democratic holds for U.S. President and U.S. Senate. 

If it turns out Trump wins this election, these national “Generic Congressional Vote” numbers may see the Republicans—who flipped the U.S. House with the midterm elections of 2022—draw Even or move ahead. This would put the 2024 Republicans on a path for holding the U.S. House while flipping U.S. President and U.S. Senate.

It is no wonder, as last week’s blog title stated, Election 2024 is such a Tossup.

‘Tossup,’ Once More

Last week saw coverage of recent polls reporting Democatic presidential nominee and U.S. vice president Kamala Harris is losing ground…and that she may lose the 2024 U.S. presidential election to Republican nominee and former U.S. president Donald Trump.

This is three weeks from the general election scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024. There are several matters to consider. I am, at this point, rating Election 2024: U.S. President an absolute Tossup. 

Commonly focused “Swing States”—appearing on the above map in Yellow—will be most instrumental with determining overall outcome for this election. (They may all get carried.)

I will post in Comments some recent videos which are related to this week’s topic.

Top 10 States: Alignment for U.S. President

This week’s blog topic relates not only to Election 2024, for U.S. President, but also applies going forward. It speaks to historic pattern. Considerable influence as well. That this is likely to continue. 

The above map, with colors, are the U.S.’s Top 10 most-populous states. 

This is relevant because The Top 10 bares much influence electorally. They add up to 254 of the 270 electoral votes required for election the presidency of the United States.

The Top 10 also comprise between 53 to 54 percent as the home states for all U.S. citizens. 

Source: US States — Ranked by Population 2024 …

Historically, no past U.S. presidential election was won with less than 4 of the Top 10 populous states. The last time that a winner carried only 4 was George W. Bush in the 2000s. In his column were his home state Texas along with North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio. The 6 remaining Top 10 states—California. New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Michigan and, then-ranked among the Top 10, New Jersey—were in the columns for losing Democrats Al Gore and John Kerry.

(Separate note: During the 1990s and 2000s, New Jersey still ranked among the Top 10 most-populous states. Georgia and North Carolina went back and forth of being in and out of the Top 10. Since the 2010s, New Jersey fell to rank No. 11 and both Georgia and North Carolina—which dethroned a formerly No. 8 Michigan—are now comfortable Top 10 states.)

Since 1992, no one has carried more than 32 states. No winner has carried more than 8 of the Top 10 states. 1996 Bill Clinton and 2012 Barack Obama reached. 1992 Clinton, 2012 Obama, and 2016 Trump carried 7. A 2020 Biden carried 6.

Most presidential winners have carried 6 or more Top 10 states.

The above map’s color-coding recognizes where each Top 10 state is currently aligned. 

This regards where they rank among best-performed states in percentage-points margins by which a state carries (or does not).

States appearing in purple are leading (Michigan and Pennsylvania) and rising (Georgia)—as well as sleeper (North Carolina)—bellwethers.

The following are each Top 10 populous state’s “Probable Order in Rank” for the Democratic and Republican parties:

On the top map, I have Texas appearing in light red. It is for the following reason: The next year on record the Democrats have a U.S. presidential election in which they carry not only 6 or 7 but up to 8 of the nation’s Top 10 populous states … what will come in as their No. 8 is Texas. 

(Another separate note: The Democrats, given the current electoral structure, would not reach their No. 9 Florida and No. 10 Ohio. They transformed, in 2016, from former leading bellwether states to realign Republican. This trajectory is at a point in which Texas is about to become bluer than Florida and Florida is about to become redder than Texas.)

Texas is in light red, to suggest Lean Republican, due to its trendline toward the Democrats. During the presidency of George W. Bush, won in 2000 and 2004, it was the Democrats’s No. 41 best state. With the Republicans’s 2008 and 2012 losses, Texas was the Democrats’s No. 36 best state. Although Trump was a 2016 Republican pickup winner, Texas became the Democrats’s No. 29 best state. And in 2020, with Biden having unseated Trump, Texas ranked the Democrats’s No. 28 best state. (Florida was No. 27.) Since 1992, prevailing Democrats have averaged 28 carried states. They can reach and carry Texas if they win the presidency with 8 of the Top 10.

If you want to look at this as well from the Republicans’s position … reverse their “Probable Order” and, lately, they’re good for up to 7 of the Top 10. That is what 2016 Trump experienced. The same 7 states, if he wins a second non-consecutive term here in 2024, will end up in his column.

Election 2024: U.S. Senate [Preview]

Last week addressed the current status, “The Race,” on the 2024 United States presidential election.

This week is the U.S. Senate. 

All states in yellow are susceptible to seeing their Democratic-held seats potentially flip Republican. 

Three of these states have an alignment for the Republicans for U.S. President: Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia. And the third-mentioned state is guaranteed to flip. (This is why it is in light red.)

Five of the seven “Tossup” states, a common focus on the “Swing States,” are on the schedule: Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. (Exceptions: Georgia and North Carolina.)

I want to offer the following for consideration:

Established Patterns

🟣 Since 1976, every U.S. presidential election in which Wisconsin had a scheduled U.S. Senate election resulted in same-party carriage. Winning Democrats: 1976 (Jimmy Carter and William Proxmire); 1988 (Michael Dukakis and Herb Kohl); 1992 (Bill Clinton and Russ Feingold); 2000 (Al Gore and Kohl); 2004 (John Kerry and Feingold); and 2012 (Barack Obama and Tammy Baldwin who is the incumbent whose seat is on the schedule here in 2024). Winning Republicans: 1980 (Ronald Reagan and Bob Kasten); and 2016 (Donald Trump and Ron Johnson).

🟣 Since the Republican Party won their first U.S. presidential election with Abraham Lincoln in 1860, Pennsylvania has not had both its U.S. Senate seats in the column for the Democratic Party for longer than four years. In the midterm elections of 2022, John Fetterman was a Democratic pickup winner. If Bob Casey wins re-election, with this seat next on the schedule in 2030, the Democrats will break this pattern.

Recent Elections

🟣 In 2016, every state which was on the schedule for U.S. Senate carried for the same party which won that given state for U.S. President. This was the first time this ever occurred in the history of U.S. presidential elections. 

🟣 In 2020, this pattern repeated. Well, it did in all states except Maine. A state with a split allocation of its electoral votes, Democrats Joe Biden and Sara Gideon won the 1st Congressional District while Republicans Donald Trump and Susan Collins won the 2nd Congressional District. Statewide winners: Biden and Collins.

Current Election

States which are “Tossup” but are accompanied with a checkmark may be key. 

We may see same-party outcomes—U.S. President and U.S. Senate—in potentially all of Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin … as voting citizens may opt to align their votes for the same given party.

Those five states are all currently in the column for the Democrats. Two such states—Arizona [Kyrsten Sinema] and Michigan [Debbie Stabenow]—who are retiring. 

The following is a list with the probable order for each major party. The Republicans enter this race with 49 seats and have a good-as-guaranteed pickup for a 50th seat with flipping West Virginia. (This is for current governor Jim Justice over Wheeling mayor Glenn Elliott.) In percentage-points margins, Republicans’s 51st seat would likely be Montana. If Democrats hold the U.S. Senate, their 50th seat would also likely be Montana. I think the Big Sky State will be the Tipping-Point State/Seat for overall outcome in elections with the 2024 U.S. Senate.

Election 2024: The Race [U.S. President]

We are six weeks from Election Day, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024, and I am not fully confident to predict who—Democratic incumbent U.S. vice president Kamala Harris or previous Republican-affiliated U.S. president Donald Trump—will win this election. (Side note: Effective with this publishing date, I am sensing it is Harris, rather than Trump, who has a slight advantage.)

The polls favored Harris, after U.S president Joe Biden dropped out, for much of August. During the early weeks of September, it has been looking better for Trump. It’s a back-and-forth thing. (More polls lean favorably to Harris.)

The map is a return to the focused “Swing States” which were polled from, say, November 2023 through at least the first half of 2024. They are each a “Tossup” and in Yellow. “Tossup” is centered because their combined 94 electoral votes make the mathematical difference with reaching 270. Solid Blue [incumbent party] and Red [opposition party] would be 2020-to-2024 party holds.

On the “Tossup” list: Nevada was a 2016-to-2020 Democratic hold … Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia were 2016 Republican-to-2020 Democratic pickups … North Carolina was a 2016-to-2020 Republican hold. They all have the potential to end up in the column for the winner. (Frankly, nearly all or all are likely to do just that.)

If Kamala Harris wins this election, her electoral-map potential are 26 carried states, plus Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District and District of Columbia, for up to 319 electoral votes.

If Donald Trump wins this election, his electoral-map potential are 31 carried states, plus Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, for up to 313 electoral votes.

I will note a historic fact: There has been no past United States presidential election’s electoral map which was later duplicated. 

An easy companion is with looking at winners from the same party.

In 2000 and 2016, then-Republican presidential pickup winners George W. Bush and Trump each carried 30 states. Their maps were different. Carried by Bush: Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia. Carried by Trump: Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin plus Maine’s 2nd Congressional District. 

Here in 2024, if it turns out Democratic nominee Harris wins and carries 26 states, she will match that number with 2012 re-elected Democrat Barack Obama. Their maps would also be different. Carried by Obama: Florida, Iowa, and Ohio plus Maine’s 2nd Congressional District. Carried by Harris: Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina plus Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.

At least one of those in Yellow, with respect to Elections 2020 to 2024, will change color.

Note to Readers: 

This is my last electoral-map preview for Election 2024 [U.S. President]. Numerous states begin early and absentee voting in October. (This includes my home state Michigan.) The next electoral map for U.S. President will be my predictions. That will publish Monday, October 28, 2024. The following week will be the elections. That will publish on Election Day, Tuesday, November 5, 2024, at 12:00 a.m. ET.

Wednesday, September 25, 2024 will mark the seventh anniversary for Progressives Chat.

Thank you, to Everyone, and most especially to cathyx (who helped me with its launch), for the continuation of this blog site.

I want to keep going.