Election 2024: Highlights

Progressives Chat will soon conclude covering outcomes for Election 2024.

I will wrap-up with such related blog topics next week.

In fact, next week will be the final week here in November 2024. (The timing will be good.)

This week, with “Highlights,” addresses the conspicuous shifts—nationwide and state to state—comparing Elections 2020 and 2024. What will also be addressed are some demographics as well as particular state counties critical to the overall outcome.

Much of this serves a purpose to further show how, in addition to election issues, we have this result.

‘ELECTIONS 2020–2024 SHIFTS’

In the United States presidential election of 2020, Joe Biden won the U.S. Popular Vote with 51.26%. Then-incumbent Donald Trump received 46.80%. 

This was a 2020 Democratic pickup for U.S. President with a U.S. Popular Vote percentage-points margin of D+4.45. (From sources I have read, a series of numbers follow the decimal point. So it actually reads as +4.45xxxxx.)

Prior to last weekend a re-elected Trump, in a 2024 Republican pickup with his defeat of U.S. vice president Kamala Harris, won the U.S. Popular Vote by just under R+2.00. All votes are not yet counted. 98% are in. (This is according to Wikipedia.)

In order to win over the U.S. Popular Vote, a 2024 Trump needed a national shift of R+4.45 to draw Even and R+4.46 to win by at least R+0.01. Not only did Trump reach that necessary level, he did so in states combining for 300 electoral votes. 

That is what the above map is about—recognition of the levels of shifts, state to state, from 2020 to 2024. 

It turns out 24 of Trump’s 31 carried states, for 219 of his eventual 312 electoral votes, were won by +10 or more percentage-points in margins. All the commonly focused “Swing States”—Republican hold of North Carolina; Republican pickups of Arizona, Nevada, Tipping-Point State Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—carried within 5 percentage points vs. national margin. (This is a typical pattern for states which are Swing or Battleground or Bellwether as they not only back a winner but also reflect, to considerable extent, the national margin in a given presidential election.)

Every state had a general 2020-to-2024 shift in the direction of Republican and Trump. This marks the first time this happened—for the opposition party having regained the White House—since the 1976 Democratic pickup of the presidency for Jimmy Carter. He followed his party’s losing 1972 nominee George McGovern’s national loss by D–23.15; shifted D+25.21; and won over the U.S. Popular Vote by D+2.06. (Note: 1980 and 2000 Republican pickup winners Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush—and 1992 Democratic pickup winner Bill Clinton—experienced shifts in their parties’ direction in 49 states.)

Among the states Trump did not shift sufficiently (to be able to win over the U.S. Popular Vote): Washington was +0.73 percentage points redder. Delaware shifted toward Trump by +4.27. 

Among the states shifted sufficiently for Trump to be able to win over the U.S. Popular Vote: It begins with New Hampshire. It became redder by +4.57. There are plenty more.

The most strongly shifted in the 2024 direction of Republican and Trump are two standout northeast states. New Jersey, the No. 11 most-populous state in the U.S., moved +10.29. The No. 4 most-populous state New York shifted with the most degree of red—by +11.52—as it moved from 2020-to-2024 Democratic margins of +23.09 to +11.57 percentage points.

While I have focused on percentage-points there are the raw-vote margins. 

In 2020, Biden won the U.S. Popular Vote by +7,059,526. Effective November 16, 2024, at 10:00 a.m. ET, Trump won the U.S. Popular Vote by +2,706,826. 

In order to shift that –7,059,526, to arrive at Even, Trump nationally shifted +6,357,718 just from the nation’s Top 10 most-populous states. (They are home to nearly 54% of the nation's citizens.) That raw-vote margins shift, for what was needed by Trump, is the equivalent of 90.05%.

The following chart shows just how these raw-vote margins shifted. (Again, this is not complete. But it isn’t difficult to understand. States with an * are 2024 Republican pickups.)

‘Highlights’: Demographics

🔴 Trendline (New): Trump made inroads with young males, yes, but also young females. In 2020, he lost the 18–29 vote nationwide by –24 percentage points. In 2024, his loss was –11 points. He moved from 36% to 43%. Source: Yes, Trump improved with young men. But he drew young women, too.

🔴 Trendline (Continuing): The votes from Blacks continue their trend. A 2008 Barack Obama, in a Democratic pickup for U.S. President, nationally carried the votes from people who are Black by +91 percentage points. (Outcome: Obama 95% vs. John McCain 4%.) Since 2012, a trend has been in progress moving away from Democrats and toward Republicans. The percentage-points margins have been +87 (in 2012); +81 (in 2016); +75 (in 2020). In 2024, this moved to +73.

🔵 Trendline (Developing): For the last, roughly, 15 years…Democrats have sold a part of their appeal as “Demographics Are Destiny,” boasting of a future with electoral fortune of dominance with non-White voters. However, in the last two elections—and this is irony—Democrats have improved, and we may have a trend, with Whites. A 2016 Hillary Clinton received 37%. A 2020 Biden received 41%. A 2024 Harris received 41%. Democratic margins have trended –20 to –17 to –16 percentage points.

🔴 Hispanics in Play: The vote from Hispanics have been assumed, by Democrats, to be safely for their party. In 2020, Joe Biden nationally won them by +33 points, with 65% vs. 32% for Trump. In 2024, that margin reduced to a Democratic hold of +6 as Harris received 52% vs. 46% for Trump. In fact, Harris lost and Trump won nationally Hispanic males with 55%.

🔵 A Realignment on Economics: In the past, households with annual incomes of $100,000 or more voted Republican. Here in 2024, that switched. They were won nationally by the Democrats and nominee Harris with 51%. This occurred while Trump nationally carried voters with annual household incomes between $30,000 to $99,999. Traditionally won by Democrats, they voted for Trump with 52%.

‘Highlights’: County Flips in Key States

In all six pickup states for Trump, there was at least one county which flipped from 2020 Democratic (Biden) to 2024 Republican (Trump). Numerous are bellwether counties to a given state. Two pivotal state bellwether counties from the Keystone State are, I estimate, bellwethers to the nation. (The best bellwether-to-the-nation county is Montana’s Blaine County with its most-populous city Chinook. Except in 1988, it has voted for all presidential winners since 1916 and including 2024.) While there are a lot more counties to list, even in states which are not bellwethers, the following stand out.

🔵 PENNSYLVANIA 🔴 Erie County (its most-populous city is Erie) and Northampton County (Bethlehem). The former has carried for statewide winners in all U.S. presidential elections, except in 1988, since 1948. (This amounts to 19 of 20 election cycles including 2024.) The latter county has carried for statewide winners in all, except 1948, since 1936. (This is 22 of 23 election cycles.)

🔵 MICHIGAN 🔴 Saginaw County (Saginaw) has voted for statewide winners—no exceptions—since 1992. Dating back to 1900, and through 2024, it matched with statewide winners in 27 of 32 elections. The county has carried roughly 85% of election cycles. Also flipped: Muskegon County (Muskegon). With exception in 2016, it has carried for all statewide winners since 1972. (So, 13 of 14 election cycles.)

🔵 WISCONSIN 🔴 Door County (Sturgeon Bay), profiled in a recent segment on CBS’s 60 Minutes, narrowly held for Harris. But Trump won a pickup of Sauk County (Baraboo). This county has also carried 9 in a row, since 1992, for presidential statewide winners. Since 1952, Sauk has carried for all statewide winners except in 1976 and 1988. (Good for 17 of 19 election cycles.)

🔵 NEVADA 🔴 Washoe County (Reno). Except in 1976 and 2016 (when it sided with popular-vote winner Hillary Clinton), the state has carried for all presidential winners since 1912. Washoe County has carried for all statewide winners, except in 1992 and 1996, since 1964. (This is 14 of 16 election cycles.)

🔵 ARIZONA 🔴 As I mentioned on Due Dissidence’s Election Night coverage: Since Arizona joined the Union and first voted in 1912, every presidential statewide winner—except 1996 Bill Clinton—carried Maricopa County (Phoenix), home to 60% the state’s population. (Reliable for 28 of 29 election cycles.)

🔵 GEORGIA 🔴 Three counties, which are not state bellwether counties (but may be trending in that direction), switched from 2020 Democratic to 2024 Republican. This occurred in Baldwin County (Milledgeville), Jefferson County (Louisville), and Washington County (Sandersville). Source: These three Georgia counties flipped blue to red in 2024.

‘Highlights’: Companion-to-Divergent States

🔵 New Mexico and Nevada 🔴 voted different from each other for only the second time in history. I identify them as Companion States. New Mexico joined the Union and first voted in 1912. Their prior disagreement was in 2000, a year with split outcomes: a Democratic hold for the U.S. Popular Vote (Al Gore, who carried New Mexico) and a Republican pickup for the Electoral College and U.S. President (George W. Bush, who flipped and carried Nevada). This split reminds me of another pair of Companion States. From 1944 to 2016, Iowa and Wisconsin voted the same in all presidential elections except in 1976 and 2004. Then in 2020, they disagreed. What explains this? Between Iowa and Wisconsin, the former realigned Republican (with 2016 pickup winner Trump) but the latter transformed into a leading bellwether state. Between New Mexico and Nevada, the former realigned Democratic (with 2008 pickup winner Barack Obama) but the latter maintained bellwether status. So, as it turns out nowadays, Iowa and Wisconsin will vote the same when a Republican wins. New Mexico and Nevada will vote the same when a Democrat wins.

A Post-Election 2024 Reaction of Satisfaction

In time for my deadline (so to speak) of Monday, November 11, 2024, there are still some election races not called. The electoral map, for Election 2024, is now complete. I predicted correctly.

Donald Trump was re-elected to a second non-consecutive term. This is the second time in history this has occurred after Grover Cleveland won his elections in 1884 and 1892. As he did in 2016, Trump`s second-term win is a Republican pickup. 

Effective Sunday, November 10, 2024 at 04:30 p.m. ET, and according to Wikipedia, Trump won the U.S. Popular Vote with 50.42% vs. Kamala Harris with 47.82%. A percentage-points margin of R+2.60. This bares in mind not all states are 100 percent in. Trump’s final percentage-points margin is likely +2 to +3.

All states are projected. Trump carried 31 states, plus Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, with an electoral-vote score of 312. (The pickups appear, on the map, in Light Shade.)

Given the fact no prior election’s electoral map has ever been later duplicated, the difference between the maps for Trump’s two terms are with Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District (2016) and Nevada (2024).

The likely Tipping-Point State is Pennsylvania. This is based on ranking all states for their percentage-points margins (whether or not carried). The Keystone State is apparently where Trump reached 270 electoral votes. It is his No. 29 best state. In fact, since 2012 Pennsylvania has ranked the Republicans’s No. 29 best state. (For Democrats, it has been their No. 22.) Republicans nowadays hit their Tipping-Point State at No. 28 or No. 29. (For Democrats, their No. 22 or No. 23.) Pennsylvania, allocated with 19 electoral votes, is Trump’s 287th electoral vote. Coming in at No. 30 is Michigan, for a cumulative 302 electoral votes. Ranking No. 31 is Wisconsin, for the final electoral-vote score of 312.

Once again, the Rust Belt Trio—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—carried for the winner. They retain their status as the nation’s Top Bellwether States. This is the fifth consecutive cycle—2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024—in which all three carried for a United States presidential election winner.

I enjoyed having participated on the Election Night coverage on Due Dissidence. I viewed it again. The purpose is to take in how well I handled myself. Perhaps I did OK. Without experience, I cannot have the polish that is there with co-hosts Keaton Weiss and Russell Dobular. But there is much to say about having experience. I contributed…and that is why I was there. And I thank this site’s regulars for having suggested I say “yes” to their invitation.

 

This week’s topic will not cover too many details of Election 2024 outcomes, as there is so much to consider, because I choose this week to focus on the overall outcome.

It is time for me to give my reaction.

I am satisfied.

I am very pleased—make that delighted—the 2024 Democrats became electorally defeated and unseated.

This overall outcome was absolutely necessary. 

(I applaud the voters in my birth city, Dearborn, for denying Harris/Democrats their votes with an effort to help make sure Team Blue would not be able to win a 2020-to-2024 hold for the state of Michigan. Due to the genocide in Gaza, voters held accountable the Joe Biden–Kamala Harris administration.)

The Democrats have become an arrogant and destructive cult. 

The last election cycle in which I voted for any person affiliated with the Democratic Party was in 2014. Election Day was Tuesday, November 4, 2014. In this current year, Election Day was held Tuesday, November 5, 2024. When that date arrived, a full ten years had passed since I last voted for a Democrat.

This is good.

I made the correct decision.

I am relieved that I have enough inner strength to have made this happen—and stick.

The Democratic Party lost me in 2016. I have at least four reasons why: 1. Rigged Primaries; 2. McCarthyism [RussiaGate]; 3. Anti-Choice [The Jab]; 4. Censorship.

It certainly does not stop there. But, really, the first listed item was already enough for me. And I take my voting personally. (How could I not?)

After viewing numerous post-election videos—such as livestreams—the one which really spoke to where I am coming from (but not being expressed by me in words appearing on this site) was on Racket News. This is from Matt Taibbi. The more astute take on all this is by co-host Walter Kirn. In the first few minutes, Kirn says of the Democratic Party [and party establishment], “But, Matt…I don’t care about their Cope. I don’t care about the Coming Lens to replace the Fascist Lens or to augment the Hitler Lens—to supplant the loss of Status Lens. Because I don’t care about anything they say. That’s the final triumph.…”

Election 2024: Here at Last!

Election Day—and, afterward, Election Night—has arrived.

Election 2024 is the 60th quadrennial presidential election in the history of the United States.

This blog topic publishes on Tuesday, November 5, 2024 at 12:00 a.m. ET for good reason: The Dixville Notch votes in New Hampshire occur just after midnight (Eastern Time). And they are considered the traditional beginning of Election Day.

According to Wikipedia’s page, ‘Dixville Notch: Midnight tradition voting’: “Dixville Notch is best known in connection with its longstanding midnight vote in the U.S. presidential election, including during the New Hampshire primary, the first primary election in the U.S. presidential nomination process. In a tradition that started in the 1960 election, all the eligible voters in Dixville Notch gather at midnight in the ballroom of The Balsams. The voters cast their ballots and the polls are officially closed when all of the registered voters have voted—sometimes merely one minute later. The results of the Dixville Notch vote in both the New Hampshire primary and the general election are traditionally broadcast around the country immediately afterwards.”

The above map, for the 2024 election for U.S. President, is initially presented with white coloring prior to the polls closing in a select number of states at 07:00 p.m. ET. I will be updating the map, some in the Comments section, and periodically and gradually with the top map until all the results are in.

I will be contributing to Due Dissidence during its Election Night coverage. I will not be appearing on camera. So, while I may be slow to do any updating here, during the evening, I will not neglect this site.

I encourage readers of Progressives Chat to post anything of mind—whether or not specific to these elections—as this week’s blog topic will be good through next Monday at 05:59 a.m. ET.

The next blog topic will publish, as normally scheduled, Monday, November 11, 2024 at 06:00 a.m. ET.

Gender Vote

The gender gap, as often referred, is Democrats carrying Females before they may also carry Males; Republicans carrying Males before they would also carry Females. The last elections in which both genders carried for a prevailing Republican and Democrat were in 1988 (George Bush) and 2008 (Barack Obama). I will be looking at the Gender Vote nationwide, for the U.S. Popular Vote, and state to state. (Not all states exit-poll.) Here were the results from Election 2020:

• Female (53): Joe Biden 56% • Donald Trump 41%

• Male (47): Joe Biden 45% • Donald Trump 53%

• Margins: D+15 (Female) • R+8 (Male)

• Math: D+15 – R+8 = D+7; divide by 2 = D+3.50; Adjusted (Actual Outcome): D+4.45

  

‘Swing States’: Bellwether Counties Watch

I consider the following “Swing States’s” counties which will indicate who will carry a given state. They have been reliably backing statewide presidential winners. 

🟣 Pennsylvania: Erie and Northampton

🟣 Michigan: Saginaw

🟣 Wisconsin: Door

🟣 Arizona: Maricopa

🟣 Georgia: None Applicable

🟣 North Carolina: New Hanover

🟣 Nevada: Washoe 

Election 2024 Prediction: Trump … Vance … Republican Trifecta

Next week is the 2024 United States presidential election … along with other races and ballot issues. 

“Election Day 2024” will publish Tuesday, November 5, 2024, at 12:00 a.m. ET.

This prediction is final.

In the meantime… 

🇺🇸

I predict Donald Trump, from Florida, will win re-election to a second, non-consecutive term to become the next and 47th president of the United States.

I predict JD Vance, from Ohio, will win election to become the next and 50th vice president of the United States.

I predict the overall outcome for Election 2024 will be the Trifecta for the Republican Party: U.S. President, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House.

While the 2024 Republicans will win a pickup for U.S. President, I predict they will also win a pickup for the U.S. Senate while retaining a majority hold for control for the U.S. House.

Coming into Election 2024, the Democrats have established 51 percent for both U.S. President (in 2020, Joe Biden’s U.S. Popular Vote was 51.26%) and U.S. Senate (in 2022, the Democrats ended up with 51 of its 100 seats). The Republicans also established 51 percent for U.S. House (in 2022, they ended up with 222 of its 435 seats).

It is highly likely, with the overall results of Election 2024, one of these two major political parties will end up with the Trifecta. It looks better for the Republicans. 

I will present maps on U.S. President and U.S. Senate. But, due to more complexity and a difficult visual illustation, I will not follow suit for U.S. House.

🇺🇸

Please note these colors on maps: Solid shade is for party hold. Light shade is for party pickup.

U.S. President

• Winner: Donald Trump

• Winning Ticket: Donald Trump (R–Florida) and JD Vance (R–Ohio)

• Prevailing Party: Republican—pickup

• U.S. Popular Vote [Estimate]: Donald Trump 50% • Kamala Harris 47%

• Percentage-Points Margin [Estimate]: R+3

• Electoral College: 31 states, plus Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, and 312 electoral votes

• 2020-to-2024 Electoral College Change: Republican pickups of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin

🇺🇸

U.S. Senate

• Prevailing Party: Republican—pickup

• U.S. Senate [Outcomes with Minimums]: Democratic 43 • Republican 52; five are not predicted … but they all are states/seats currently in the column for the Democrats

• 2022-to-2024 U.S. Senate Change: Republican pickups of West Virginia [Jim Justice, in an Open race]: Montana [Tim Sheehy, unseating Jon Tester]; and Ohio [Bernie Moreno, unseating Sherrod Brown]

• Watch (in Yellow): Arizona [Kari Lake vs. Ruben Gallego, in an Open race]; Michigan [Mike Rogers vs. Elissa Slotkin, in an Open race]; Nevada [Sam Brown vs. incumbent Jacky Rosen]; Pennsylvania [David McCormick vs. incumbent Bob Casey]; and Wisconsin [Eric Hovde vs. incumbent Tammy Baldwin]

🇺🇸

U.S. House

• Prevailing Party: Republican—hold

• U.S. Popular Vote [Estimate]: Democratic 47% • Republican 50%

• Percentage-Points Margin [Estimate]: R+3

• U.S. House [Estimate]: Democratic 211–215 • Republican 220–224

• 2022-to-2024 U.S. House Change: Republican –2 to +2

The U.S. House Popular Vote

The trajectory of this 2024 United States presidential election has turned in favor for Donald Trump.

Polls show he is leading in nearly or all the commonly focused “Swing States.”

I will make my predictions next week, for Monday, October 28, 2024.

(The following week, for Tuesday, November 5, 2024, will focus on Election Day.)

Why am I not going ahead with Election 2024 predictions this week?

There is good reason.

Since the year 2000, specifically in United States presidential elections, the party which won the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. House also prevailed for U.S. President.

This includes the last two Republican pickup years of 2000 and 2016—for George W. Bush and Trump—who did not carry the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. President. (Bush succeeded with re-election in 2004.)

Given this, I am following Real Clear Politics’s tracking of the “Generic Congressional Vote.” 

I anticipate—and expect—this pattern will hold.

The above chart are results from Elections 2000–2020. 

The percentage-points margins—U.S. President vs. U.S. House—have been closely connected. Average, over six election cycles, was only 1.94 percentage points in margin.

The below images are from Real Clear Politics effective Sunday, October 20, 2024. 

The U.S. House is on the schedule every two years. Even-numbered years. With that, they cannot skip an election cycle. The full 100 recent of its seats are scheduled.

Here were the results, in 2022, when Republicans won pickup control for the U.S. House:

If Election 2024 ends up a Democratic hold, to elect Kamala Harris, these numbers may closely reflect national outcomes for U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. President vs. U.S. House. (I sense Democratic percentage-points margins, for U.S. President and U.S. House, to be +5 and +2 or +3.)

If Election 2024 ends up a Republican pickup for U.S. President, to re-elect Trump to a second non-consecutive term, I would anticipate—not unlike the Democrats—the 2024 Republicans to carry the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. House. (I sense Republican percentage-points margins, for U.S. President and U.S. House, to be –1 to +3 and +0 to +4.)

The Democrats are narrowly ahead with this aggregate of polls. Typically the margin of error, for polls, are between 3 to 5 points. This suggests, if this holds, they would flip the U.S. House. This is due to the 2022 Democrats having lost control of the U.S. House, with a minority 213 seats, and a U.S. Popular Vote percentage-points margin of –2.72. This would likely come with Democratic holds for U.S. President and U.S. Senate. 

If it turns out Trump wins this election, these national “Generic Congressional Vote” numbers may see the Republicans—who flipped the U.S. House with the midterm elections of 2022—draw Even or move ahead. This would put the 2024 Republicans on a path for holding the U.S. House while flipping U.S. President and U.S. Senate.

It is no wonder, as last week’s blog title stated, Election 2024 is such a Tossup.

‘Tossup,’ Once More

Last week saw coverage of recent polls reporting Democatic presidential nominee and U.S. vice president Kamala Harris is losing ground…and that she may lose the 2024 U.S. presidential election to Republican nominee and former U.S. president Donald Trump.

This is three weeks from the general election scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024. There are several matters to consider. I am, at this point, rating Election 2024: U.S. President an absolute Tossup. 

Commonly focused “Swing States”—appearing on the above map in Yellow—will be most instrumental with determining overall outcome for this election. (They may all get carried.)

I will post in Comments some recent videos which are related to this week’s topic.

Top 10 States: Alignment for U.S. President

This week’s blog topic relates not only to Election 2024, for U.S. President, but also applies going forward. It speaks to historic pattern. Considerable influence as well. That this is likely to continue. 

The above map, with colors, are the U.S.’s Top 10 most-populous states. 

This is relevant because The Top 10 bares much influence electorally. They add up to 254 of the 270 electoral votes required for election the presidency of the United States.

The Top 10 also comprise between 53 to 54 percent as the home states for all U.S. citizens. 

Source: US States — Ranked by Population 2024 …

Historically, no past U.S. presidential election was won with less than 4 of the Top 10 populous states. The last time that a winner carried only 4 was George W. Bush in the 2000s. In his column were his home state Texas along with North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio. The 6 remaining Top 10 states—California. New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Michigan and, then-ranked among the Top 10, New Jersey—were in the columns for losing Democrats Al Gore and John Kerry.

(Separate note: During the 1990s and 2000s, New Jersey still ranked among the Top 10 most-populous states. Georgia and North Carolina went back and forth of being in and out of the Top 10. Since the 2010s, New Jersey fell to rank No. 11 and both Georgia and North Carolina—which dethroned a formerly No. 8 Michigan—are now comfortable Top 10 states.)

Since 1992, no one has carried more than 32 states. No winner has carried more than 8 of the Top 10 states. 1996 Bill Clinton and 2012 Barack Obama reached. 1992 Clinton, 2012 Obama, and 2016 Trump carried 7. A 2020 Biden carried 6.

Most presidential winners have carried 6 or more Top 10 states.

The above map’s color-coding recognizes where each Top 10 state is currently aligned. 

This regards where they rank among best-performed states in percentage-points margins by which a state carries (or does not).

States appearing in purple are leading (Michigan and Pennsylvania) and rising (Georgia)—as well as sleeper (North Carolina)—bellwethers.

The following are each Top 10 populous state’s “Probable Order in Rank” for the Democratic and Republican parties:

On the top map, I have Texas appearing in light red. It is for the following reason: The next year on record the Democrats have a U.S. presidential election in which they carry not only 6 or 7 but up to 8 of the nation’s Top 10 populous states … what will come in as their No. 8 is Texas. 

(Another separate note: The Democrats, given the current electoral structure, would not reach their No. 9 Florida and No. 10 Ohio. They transformed, in 2016, from former leading bellwether states to realign Republican. This trajectory is at a point in which Texas is about to become bluer than Florida and Florida is about to become redder than Texas.)

Texas is in light red, to suggest Lean Republican, due to its trendline toward the Democrats. During the presidency of George W. Bush, won in 2000 and 2004, it was the Democrats’s No. 41 best state. With the Republicans’s 2008 and 2012 losses, Texas was the Democrats’s No. 36 best state. Although Trump was a 2016 Republican pickup winner, Texas became the Democrats’s No. 29 best state. And in 2020, with Biden having unseated Trump, Texas ranked the Democrats’s No. 28 best state. (Florida was No. 27.) Since 1992, prevailing Democrats have averaged 28 carried states. They can reach and carry Texas if they win the presidency with 8 of the Top 10.

If you want to look at this as well from the Republicans’s position … reverse their “Probable Order” and, lately, they’re good for up to 7 of the Top 10. That is what 2016 Trump experienced. The same 7 states, if he wins a second non-consecutive term here in 2024, will end up in his column.