On Break: Week #01

I will be taking a break from posting blog topics for the weeks of June 28, 2020 and July 5, 2020.

(I will return with a new post on Sunday, July 12, 2020.)

To keep Progressives Chat active, and to allow for readers’ comments, the topic threads of “Vacation: Week #01” and “Vacation: Week #02” will be good for seven-day periods covering each week.

I will include with this a video that happened to catch my attention.

I used to watch the broadcast networks’ soaps. A publicist, named Alan Locher, has been publishing to YouTube video discussions with a number of people—most obviously actors—connected with those dramas in the past. (I think they use Zoom.) Featured more prominently have been cast members from former CBS series As the World Turns (which ended in 2010) and Guiding Light (which ended in 2009). His channel is titled The Locher Room.

A different Locher Room video was published last week, on Wednesday, June 24, that is about Pride Month. Locher, who is gay, welcomed several guests to discuss the 50th anniversary of the first Gay Pride March. That occurred on Sunday, June 28, 1970. (Related report: “In Celebration of the 50th Anniversary of the First Pride March: 14 Iconic Photos from Years Past”.)

Given that June 2020 is almost over, and I am leaving this “On Break: Week #01” to run for a full week, I figured I would share this here. Duration is 1 hour 15 minutes.

An Early-Enough Election 2020 Prediction: Trump Will Get Unseated

We are far along. Enough so. And I have seen enough.

My May 3, 2020 blog topic, “Polling, Six Months from Election Day, Looks Good for the Ds”, which I deliberately timed for six months from Election Day [November 3, 2020], was a preview of what this upcoming general election may look like and end up becoming.

(I could have set this topic to publish for Friday, July 3, 2020—four months from Election Day—but Progressives Chat will publish week-long “On Break” topics the weeks of June 28 and July 5 and will return July 12. So, a July 3 posting, on this topic, would not be different from June 25.)

I wrote in great detail—including data—on how things appear to be shaping up.

What has changed, in nearly two months, is that the polls have become even worse for 45th president of the United States Donald Trump and the Republican Party (which control the U.S. Senate).

By the end of last week, there were two sources—Real Clear Politics and Five Thirty Eight—which averaged out the polls, for U.S. President, and reported estimates that the race is looking much like a 9-point U.S. Popular Vote margin advantage for the Democrats and presumptive nominee Joe Biden.

On Wednesday, June 24, 2020, Real Clear Politics reported the polling average—Republican incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump vs. presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden—being Democratic +10.1. (Source: General Election: Trump vs. Biden.) By close of that same date, Five Thirty Eight reports its as Democratic +9.6. (Source: Who’s ahead in the national polls?.)

The worst Donald Trump can receive, and still win re-election, is a U.S. Popular Vote margin of, say, –3.50 percentage points (say, 47.50 to 51.00 percent). If he loses by –4 percentage points (which is 47.00 to 51.00 percent), or worse, he becomes unseated.

I—and numerous others—think this race may be effectively over.

I am predicting, at this point, that Donald Trump will become the eleventh unseated president in United States history.

I am predicting, at this point, the following (with a confidence, not cockiness, rate):

• U.S. President: Democratic—Pickup! (95 percent)
• U.S. Senate: Democratic—Pickup! (90 percent)
• U.S. House: Democratic—Hold! (100 percent)


The catalyst for this will be COVID–19.

That it is COVID–19 having struck on the watch, here in the United States, of a Republican Party-affiliated president who—thanks to timing (a few months from the scheduled general election)—is not term-limited, is eligible for re-election, is seeking re-election, has won re-nomination for possible re-election, and has this coronavirus pandemic hanging on him just like a noose around one’s neck. (Had COVID–19 struck on Trump’s watch, here in the United States, one year later he would be dealing with it—poorly, no doubt—in his second term.)

Trump did not cause COVID–19. No doubt. No denial. But it is here. And it doesn’t change the fact that this has happened, and is still happening, on his watch. For the people who do not daily or nearly-daily follow politics, but who do vote (and they vote first in presidential elections before any other type of election cycle), they know who is U.S. president, which political party holds the White House, and they proceed from there.

The ten previous incumbent U.S. presidents who, in their efforts to win re-election, became unseated were: 1800 John Adams; 1828 John Quincy Adams; 1840 Martin Van Buren; 1888 Grover Cleveland; 1892 Benjamin Harrison; 1912 William Howard Taft; 1932 Herbert Hoover; 1976 Gerald Ford; 1980 Jimmy Carter; and 1992 George Bush.

If we will end up adding 2020 Donald Trump to that list, I would like to compare him to at least one of the previous ten. To be really frank, I would focus on the five unseated 20th-century presidents.

I look at 2020 Donald Trump as a combination of 1932 Herbert Hoover and 1980 Jimmy Carter.

Trump compares to Hoover for becoming confronted with a crisis—for Hoover, it was the Great Depression; for Trump, it is COVID–19—and failing at delivering meaningful and helpful leadership for the citizens whose health and/or economics are badly affected. In 1932, transformative leadership was needed. Hoover was unwilling. It looks that way here, as well, in 2020 with Donald Trump.

Trump compares to Carter for the fact that, should 2020 end up a second consecutive White House party switch (the previous was 1980—and, pattern wise, this happens infrequently; just once did that happen during the 20th century!), a part of what would become Trump’s undoing (as it was Carter’s) was the nation’s citizens recognizing the incompetent is ineffective; and they were wanting—with 1980 Carter and that appears that way with 2020 Trump—to absolutely get rid of that incumbent president. In 1980, with inflation and massive jobs losses, people wanted Carter gone. If 2020 Donald Trump gets unseated, with COVID–19 and massive jobs losses, the same will be true for the 45th U.S. president—that the nation’s citizens wanted Trump gone. And, unless a miracle happens (or a miracle in transformative policy proposals; and I say Trump would rather get unseated than push for Medicare for All)—I predict he will be.

Remembering George Carlin

It was on this day, June 22, in the year 2008, that legendary comedian George Carlin died at age 71.

I miss him.

I will share some quotes from George Carlin (May 12, 1937–June 22, 2008) that may be appreciated by readers of Progressives Chat.

Before sharing them, I want to note a couple things: The next blog topic will be posted on Thursday, June 25, 2020. And the next two weeks, Sundays, June 28 and July 5, 2020, will feature week-long blog topics to—in all honesty—give me a bit of a break from routine twice-a-week postings of blog topics. There will still be the availability for readers to post comments. Again—a break for me.


Here are some quotes from George Carlin:

“Governments don’t want a population capable of critical thinking. They want obedient workers—people just smart enough to run the machines and just dumb enough to passively accept their situation.You have no choice. You have owners. They own you. They own everything. They own all the important land. They own and control the corporations. They’ve long since bought and paid for the Senate, the Congress, the state houses, the city halls. They got the judges in their back pockets—and they own all the big media companies—so they control just about all of the news and information you get to hear.” 

“You know what they want? They want obedient workers. Obedient workers—people who are just smart enough to run the machines and do the paperwork. And just dumb enough to passively accept all these increasingly shittier jobs with the lower pay, the longer hours, the reduced benefits, the end of overtime, and vanishing pension that disappears the minute you go to collect it. And now they’re coming for your Social Security money. They want your fuckin’ retirement money. They want it back so they can give it to their criminal friends on Wall Street.”  

“Keep in mind—the news media are not independent. They are a sort of bulletin board and public relations firm for the ruling class—the people who run things. Those who decide what news you will or will not hear are paid by, and tolerated purely at the whim of, those who hold economic power. If the parent corporation doesn't want you to know something, it won’t be on the news. Period. Or, at the very least, it will be slanted to suit them, and then rarely followed up.” 

“If you have selfish, ignorant citizens, you're gonna get selfish, ignorant leaders.” 

“A person of good intelligence and of sensitivity cannot exist in this society very long without having some anger about the inequality. And it’s not just a bleeding-heart, knee-jerk, liberal kind of a thing. It is just a normal human reaction to a nonsensical set of values where we have cinnamon-flavored dental floss and there are people sleeping in the street.” 

“All the media and the politicians ever talk about is things that separate us—things that make us different from one another.” 

“Have you ever noticed that the only metaphor we have in our public discourse for solving problems is to declare war on it? We have the war on crime, the war on cancer, the war on drugs. But did you ever notice that we have no war on homelessness? You know why? Because there’s no money in that problem. No money to be made off of the homeless. If you can find a solution to homelessness where the corporations and politicians can make a few million dollars each, you will see the streets of America begin to clear up pretty damn quick!” 

“Did you ever stop to think about all the people we kill? They’re always people who tell us to live together in harmony and try to love one another: Jesus, Ghandi, Lincoln, John Kennedy, Bobby Kennedy, Medgar Evers, Malcolm X, Martin Luther King, John Lennon. They all said: ‘Try to live together peacefully.’ BAM! Right in the fuckin’ head! Apparently, we’re not ready for that!” 

“When you’re born, you get a ticket to the freak show. When you're born in America, you get a front-row seat.”

“If you vote and you elect dishonest, incompetent people into office who screw everything up, you are responsible for what they have done. You caused the problem. You voted them in. You have no right to complain.”

Happy 90th Birthday, Gena Rowlands!

The great actress Gena Rowlands turns 90 on Friday, June 19, 2020.

Revered for her thrilling performances and collaborations with her late husband, actor/director/writer John Cassavetes (1929–1989), Rowlands received Oscar nominations for Best Actress in A Woman Under the Influence (1974) and Gloria (1980).

Rowlands, with Cassavetes, embodied the spirit of the independents by branching out from the conventional filmmaking in the late-1960s and especially 1970s with the likes of Faces (1968), Minnie and Moskowitz (1971), and Opening Night (1977).

In A Woman Under the Influence, which nearly won her the 1974 Best Actress Oscar (she lost to Ellen Burstyn, in Alice Doesn’t Live Here Anymore, but did win the Golden Globe, and one can wonder how close was that vote), Rowlands played a wife, to Peter Falk, who suffers from psychotic episodes.

She starred with actress Bette Davis in a CBS movie, Strangers: The Story of a Mother and Daughter (1979), as a daughter who learns she is dying and decides to try to reconnect with her mother. Rowlands had long-admired Davis (who won an Emmy for Strangers). The television film gave her the opportunity to with Davis.

In Gloria, her second Oscar nomination, Rowlands played a former showgirl and mobster’s ex-lover who has sworn to protect a 7-year-old boy after his family is murdered. Not unlike A Woman Under the Influence, it was a gutsy and unique performance, one which won Rowlands the Best Actress award from Boston Society of Film Critics.

Gena Rowlands was nominated for an Emmy, in 1986, for playing the mother to Aidan Quinn in the first-ever TV movie about AIDS, An Early Frost, which also starred another Cassavetes/Rowlands collaborator, Ben Gazzara, and was broadcast on NBC on November 11, 1985. She would go on to win four Emmys which included her first, in 1987, for playing former First Lady Betty Ford, a recovering alcoholic, in ABC’s The Betty Ford Story.

After her husband’s death, at age 59, February 3, 1989, Rowlands starred in two of her son Nick’s films, Unhook the Stars (1996), which garnered her a Best Actress nomination from the Screen Actors Guild of America, and The Notebook (2004).

In 2010, she made a memorable guest appearance, in the episode “Mother’s Day,” as the former mother-in-law to Mark Harmon’s character on CBS’s NCIS, who still grieves—and seeks revenge—for her daughter and granddaughter.

In 2015, Gena Rowlands received an Honorary Academy Award.

Born June 19, 1930, in Madison, Wisconsin, Rowlands’s father, Edwin, was a state legislator and member of the Wisconsin Progressive Party. Her daughter Alexandra, not unlike her son Nick, is also a filmmaker who directed the memorable 2004 documentary Z Channel: A Magnificent Obsession. Her other daughter, Zoe, is also a director (2007’s Broken English). In 2012, Rowlands married businessman Robert Forrest.

Below are video clips from Gena Rowlands’s Oscar-nominated performances in A Woman Under the Influence and Gloria followed by her Honorary Academy Award speech.

The States Which Picked the Winners

In May, I posted two separate blog topics regarding some presidential election history. They touched on the issue of realignments.

This blog topic combines histories of states and presidential election winners in terms of numbers. It addresses the fact that, with 50 states we have today (a number we did not always have), presidential winners tend to carry a majority number of the participating states; not a minority. Those who carried a minority were 1824 John Quincy Adams, 1960 John Kennedy, and 1976 Jimmy Carter. There have been 58 previous U.S. presidential elections. 55 of them saw a majority count of states carry for presidential winners.

So, like an accounting exercise, I looked into the numbers in two areas: the records of states’ reliability in carrying for presidential-election winners; the presidential winners, from 1789 George Washington to 2016 Donald Trump, for their numbers of carried states. And, of course, there are the percentages.

Since 1992, the average number of carried states has been 29 with the range between 26 and 32. That is 58 percent of today’s states from the range of 52 to 64 percent. We are, at this point in history, underperforming past performance. Elections 1992 to 2016 lowered the overall percentage of carried states of where we were effective with Election 1988. We used to average 37 carried states. (Which is about three of every four. Lately, we have been performing around three of every five.) It has since lowered historical average to 34 carried states.

Election 2020 will likely align with the overwhelming majority of past examples in which the winner will carry a majority number of participating states. But, when you look at the list of states, for where they rank, it may be interesting to note which particular ones tend to be more historically reliable.

The U.S. Popular Vote has been recorded since 1824, and has been applicable in 49 elections from which it and the Electoral College/presidential winner aligned 44 times. So, the five split outcomes were in 1824, 1876, 1888, 2000, and 2016. In those particular election cycles, I gave the popular-vote carried states half-credit. (They should not be fully penalized.) And I gave those which carried for the presidential winner full credit. In elections in which a presidential winner carried both—which is commonly the case—I gave those states which carried full credit while those which did not received zero credit. And, from that point, I figured out their percentages and ranked them accordingly. (Those states in tied positions are listed in the order of when they entered the Union.) 

As a former member on another website, on which I don’t routinely post anymore, I researched and came up with the following list just after Election 2016. 

The above map uses a color-coding that avoids typical red and blue, because of their color association, and opts instead for warm secondary colors orange and green. (Orange, because of particular states having been warm or hot in their reliability for carrying for presidential winners. Green, for the opposite reason. I used Yellow, for New Mexico, because it not only has the best record but is the only state which has been carried more than 90 percent in its thus far history.) 

I copied the list and pasted it below. Hopefully, this will be okay to follow. It should be interesting to update after the general election.


The States

RANK | STATE | CARRIAGE | PERCENTAGE

   01   New Mexico   25 of 27 cycles   92.59%
   02   Illinois   42 of 50 cycles   84.00%
   03   New York   47.5 of 57 cycles   83.33%
   —   Ohio   45 of 54 cycles   83.33%
   —   California   35 of 42 cycles   83.33%
   06   Pennsylvania   48 of 58 cycles   82.75%
   07   Nevada   31.5 of 39 cycles   80.76%
   08   Wisconsin   33.5 of 43 cycles   77.90%
   09   Arizona   21 of 27 cycles   77.77%
   10   West Virginia   30 of 39 cycles   76.92%
   11   Indiana   39 of 51 cycles   76.47%
   12   Missouri   38 of 50 cycles   76.00%
   13   Iowa   32.5 of 43 cycles   75.58%
   14   New Hampshire   43.5 of 58 cycles   75.00%
   —   Michigan   34.5 of 46 cycles   75.00%
   —   Florida   31.5 of 42 cycles   75.00%
   —   Minnesota   30 of 40 cycles   75.00%
   —   Oregon   30 of 40 cycles   75.00%
   —   Montana   24 of 32 cycles   75.00%
   20   Utah   23 of 31 cycles   74.19%
   21   New Jersey   42.5 of 58 cycles   73.27%
   22   Rhode Island   41 of 57 cycles   71.92%
   23   North Dakota   23 of 32 cycles   71.87%
   —   Washington   23 of 32 cycles   71.87%
   —   Idaho   23 of 32 cycles   71.87%
   26   Tennessee   39.5 of 55 cycles   71.81%
   27   Oklahoma   20 of 28 cycles   71.42%
   28   Colorado   25.5 of 36 cycles   70.83%
   29   Connecticut   41 of 58 cycles   70.68%
   30   North Carolina   39.5 of 56 cycles   70.53%
 •    AVERAGE: U.S. President (1789–2016: 58 election cycles)…

 1,539 carried states (from 2,220 voting states)   69.32% 

   31   Kansas   27 of 39 cycles   69.23%
   32   Maryland   40 of 58 cycles   68.96%
   33   Virginia   38.5 of 56 cycles   68.75%
   —   Wyoming   22 of 32 cycles   68.75%
   35   Maine   34 of 50 cycles   68.00%
   36   Massachusetts   39 of 58 cycles   67.24%
   37   Hawaii   10 of 15 cycles   66.66%
   38   Nebraska   25 of 38 cycles   65.78%
   39   Delaware   38 of 58 cycles   65.51%
   40   Louisiana   32.5 of 50 cycles   65.00%
   41   Vermont   37 of 57 cycles   64.91%
   —   Kentucky   37 of 57 cycles   64.91%
   43   Arkansas   27 of 44 cycles   61.36%
   44   Texas   25 of 41 cycles   60.97%
   45   Alaska   09 of 15 cycles   60.00%
   46   Georgia   34 of 57 cycles   59.64%
   —   South Carolina   34 of 57 cycles   59.64%
   48   South Dakota   19 of 32 cycles   59.37%
   49   Mississippi   26.5 of 48 cycles   55.20%
   50   Alabama   26.5 of 49 cycles   54.08%



The United States Presidential Winners

CYCLE | YEAR | CARRIAGE | PERCENTAGE

   01   1789   George Washington (10 of 10)   100.00%
   02   1792   George Washington (10 of 10)   100.00%
   03   1796   John Adams (F, 09 of 16)   56.25%
   04   1800   Thomas Jefferson (D–R, 09 of 16)   56.25%
   05   1804   Thomas Jefferson (D–R, 15 of 17)   88.23%
   06   1808   James Madison (D–R, 12 of 17)   70.58%
   07   1812   James Madison (D–R, 11 of 18)   61.11%
   08   1816   James Monroe (D–R, 16 of 19)   84.21%
   09   1820   James Monroe (D–R, 24 of 24)   100.00%
   10   1824   John Quincy Adams (D–R, 07 of 24)   29.16%
   11   1828   Andrew Jackson (D, 15 of 24)   62.50%
   12   1832   Andrew Jackson (D, 16 of 24)   66.66%
   13   1836   Martin Van Buren (D, 15 of 26)   57.69%
   14   1840   William Henry Harrison (W, 19 of 26)   73.07%
   15   1844   James Polk (D, 15 of 26)   57.69%
   16   1848   Zachary Taylor (W, 15 of 30)   50.00%
   17   1852   Franklin Pierce (D, 27 of 31)   87.09%
   18   1856   James Buchanan (D, 19 of 31)   61.29%
   19   1860   Abraham Lincoln (R, 17 of 32)   53.12%
   20   1864   Abraham Lincoln (R, 22 of 25)   88.00%
   21   1868   Ulysses Grant (R, 26 of 34)   76.47%
   22   1872   Ulysses Grant (R, 31 of 37)   83.78%
   23   1876   Rutherford Hayes (R, 21 of 38)   55.26%
   24   1880   James Garfield (R, 19 of 38)   50.00%
   25   1884   Grover Cleveland (D, 20 of 38)   52.63%
   26   1888   Benjamin Harrison (R, 20 of 38)   52.63%
   27   1892   Grover Cleveland (D, 24 of 44)   54.54%
   28   1896   William McKinley (R, 23 of 45)   51.11%
   29   1900   William McKinley (R, 28 of 45)   62.22%
   30   1904   Teddy Roosevelt (R, 32 of 45)   71.11%
   31   1908   William Howard Taft (R, 29 of 46)   63.04%
   32   1912   Woodrow Wilson (D, 40 of 48)   83.33%
   33   1916   Woodrow Wilson (D, 30 of 48)   62.50%
   34   1920   Warren Harding (R, 37 of 48)   77.08%
   35   1924   Calvin Coolidge (R, 35 of 48)   72.916%
   36   1928   Herbert Hoover (R, 40 of 48)   83.33%
   37   1932   Franklin Roosevelt (D, 42 of 48)   87.50%
   38   1936   Franklin Roosevelt (D, 46 of 48)   95.83%
   39   1940   Franklin Roosevelt (D, 38 of 48)   79.166%
   40   1944   Franklin Roosevelt (D, 36 of 48)   75.00%
   41   1948   Harry Truman (D, 28 of 48)   58.33%
   42   1952   Dwight Eisenhower (R, 39 of 48)   81.25%
   43   1956   Dwight Eisenhower (R, 41 of 48)   85.41%
   44   1960   John Kennedy (D, 22 of 50)   44.00%
   45   1964   Lyndon Johnson (D, 44 of 50)   88.00%
   46   1968   Richard Nixon (R, 32 of 50)   64.00%
   47   1972   Richard Nixon (R, 49 of 50)   98.00%
   48   1976   Jimmy Carter (D, 23 of 50)   46.00%
   49   1980   Ronald Reagan (R, 44 of 50)   88.00%
   50   1984   Ronald Reagan (R, 49 of 50)   98.00%
   51   1988   George Bush (R, 40 of 50)   80.00%
   52   1992   Bill Clinton (D, 32 of 50)   64.00%
   53   1996   Bill Clinton (D, 31 of 50)   62.00%
   54   2000   George W. Bush (R, 30 of 50)   60.00%
   55   2004   George W. Bush (R, 31 of 50)   62.00%
   56   2008   Barack Obama (D, 28 of 50)   56.00%
   57   2012   Barack Obama (D, 26 of 50)   52.00%
   58   2016   Donald Trump (R, 30 of 50)   60.00%

Cumulative Totals:
   • 1,539 cumulative carried states, from 2,220 cumulative participating states, is 69.32% of cumulative carried states.
Today’s Standard:
   • This is a historical average of 34.66 [34] carried states.

‘We Have Capitalism for the Poor and Socialism for the Rich’

This video was published two weeks ago, on Wednesday May 27, 2020.

‘UPRISING: The Democratic Party Exists To Co-Opt & Kill Authentic Change’

This piece, by Caitlin Johnstone, was not a planned blog topic.

It came to my attention the night before this posting date; so, I chose to make it a topic.

Link:

UPRISING: The Democratic Party Exists To Co-Opt & Kill Authentic Change

A Bonus: This piece by Black Agenda Report’s Glen Ford.

Link:

The Movement Gets BIG—and Its Enemies Reveal Themselves

‘Obama, Biden And Democratic Party Desperately Try To Co-Opt Protest…’

Jamarl Thomas had a video, last week, which speaks to some of what I took into consideration following the murder of George Floyd by cops in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

It is about the Democratic Party inserting itself into the protests.

‘The Treason of the Ruling Class’

On Wednesday, June 3, 2020, The Jimmy Dore Show welcomed guest Chris Hedges.

Jimmy Dore mentioned Hedges’s new piece, in Common Dreams, and here is the link:

The Treason of the Ruling Class

‘The Blue Plague and Black Death’

Last week, Black Agenda Report’s Glen Ford wrote about George Floyd’s murder by police officers in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

Link:

The Blue Plague and Black Death