An Early-Enough Election 2020 Prediction: Trump Will Get Unseated

We are far along. Enough so. And I have seen enough.

My May 3, 2020 blog topic, “Polling, Six Months from Election Day, Looks Good for the Ds”, which I deliberately timed for six months from Election Day [November 3, 2020], was a preview of what this upcoming general election may look like and end up becoming.

(I could have set this topic to publish for Friday, July 3, 2020—four months from Election Day—but Progressives Chat will publish week-long “On Break” topics the weeks of June 28 and July 5 and will return July 12. So, a July 3 posting, on this topic, would not be different from June 25.)

I wrote in great detail—including data—on how things appear to be shaping up.

What has changed, in nearly two months, is that the polls have become even worse for 45th president of the United States Donald Trump and the Republican Party (which control the U.S. Senate).

By the end of last week, there were two sources—Real Clear Politics and Five Thirty Eight—which averaged out the polls, for U.S. President, and reported estimates that the race is looking much like a 9-point U.S. Popular Vote margin advantage for the Democrats and presumptive nominee Joe Biden.

On Wednesday, June 24, 2020, Real Clear Politics reported the polling average—Republican incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump vs. presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden—being Democratic +10.1. (Source: General Election: Trump vs. Biden.) By close of that same date, Five Thirty Eight reports its as Democratic +9.6. (Source: Who’s ahead in the national polls?.)

The worst Donald Trump can receive, and still win re-election, is a U.S. Popular Vote margin of, say, –3.50 percentage points (say, 47.50 to 51.00 percent). If he loses by –4 percentage points (which is 47.00 to 51.00 percent), or worse, he becomes unseated.

I—and numerous others—think this race may be effectively over.

I am predicting, at this point, that Donald Trump will become the eleventh unseated president in United States history.

I am predicting, at this point, the following (with a confidence, not cockiness, rate):

• U.S. President: Democratic—Pickup! (95 percent)
• U.S. Senate: Democratic—Pickup! (90 percent)
• U.S. House: Democratic—Hold! (100 percent)


The catalyst for this will be COVID–19.

That it is COVID–19 having struck on the watch, here in the United States, of a Republican Party-affiliated president who—thanks to timing (a few months from the scheduled general election)—is not term-limited, is eligible for re-election, is seeking re-election, has won re-nomination for possible re-election, and has this coronavirus pandemic hanging on him just like a noose around one’s neck. (Had COVID–19 struck on Trump’s watch, here in the United States, one year later he would be dealing with it—poorly, no doubt—in his second term.)

Trump did not cause COVID–19. No doubt. No denial. But it is here. And it doesn’t change the fact that this has happened, and is still happening, on his watch. For the people who do not daily or nearly-daily follow politics, but who do vote (and they vote first in presidential elections before any other type of election cycle), they know who is U.S. president, which political party holds the White House, and they proceed from there.

The ten previous incumbent U.S. presidents who, in their efforts to win re-election, became unseated were: 1800 John Adams; 1828 John Quincy Adams; 1840 Martin Van Buren; 1888 Grover Cleveland; 1892 Benjamin Harrison; 1912 William Howard Taft; 1932 Herbert Hoover; 1976 Gerald Ford; 1980 Jimmy Carter; and 1992 George Bush.

If we will end up adding 2020 Donald Trump to that list, I would like to compare him to at least one of the previous ten. To be really frank, I would focus on the five unseated 20th-century presidents.

I look at 2020 Donald Trump as a combination of 1932 Herbert Hoover and 1980 Jimmy Carter.

Trump compares to Hoover for becoming confronted with a crisis—for Hoover, it was the Great Depression; for Trump, it is COVID–19—and failing at delivering meaningful and helpful leadership for the citizens whose health and/or economics are badly affected. In 1932, transformative leadership was needed. Hoover was unwilling. It looks that way here, as well, in 2020 with Donald Trump.

Trump compares to Carter for the fact that, should 2020 end up a second consecutive White House party switch (the previous was 1980—and, pattern wise, this happens infrequently; just once did that happen during the 20th century!), a part of what would become Trump’s undoing (as it was Carter’s) was the nation’s citizens recognizing the incompetent is ineffective; and they were wanting—with 1980 Carter and that appears that way with 2020 Trump—to absolutely get rid of that incumbent president. In 1980, with inflation and massive jobs losses, people wanted Carter gone. If 2020 Donald Trump gets unseated, with COVID–19 and massive jobs losses, the same will be true for the 45th U.S. president—that the nation’s citizens wanted Trump gone. And, unless a miracle happens (or a miracle in transformative policy proposals; and I say Trump would rather get unseated than push for Medicare for All)—I predict he will be.