Election 2020: Two Months Out

With this blog topic published Monday, August 31, 2020, one day before the beginning of September, we are at a point that is good enough to say we are two months from the general election that is scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020.

I perceive no change in the status of the race of which I had previously written and published. Oh, sure—there are some people saying the race is tightening. But, I have looked at the polls from those indicating it is “tightening” and they report national margins that are Democratic +4 or +5. 

The problem: Even though I haven’t lately monitored state-to-state polls, in recent times the indication is that Republican incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump is underperforming possibly everywhere. In presidential elections which switch the White House party, there are typically more than 40 states which shift away from the incumbent and toward to the opposition party. (1980 Republican pickup winner Ronald Reagan, 1992 Democratic pickup winner Bill Clinton, and 2000 Republican pickup winner George W. Bush each saw 49 states shifted their prior presidential-election margins in their direction.) In Trump’s case, all 50 states may shift their 2016-to-2020 margins away from him and toward Democratic nominee Joe Biden. (That actually happened with 1976 Democratic pickup winner Jimmy Carter.)

In the Top 10 populous states, a 2016 Donald Trump carried seven. Three were 2016 Republican holds. Four were 2016 Republican pickups. In the 2012-to-2016 Republican states—Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina—he carried them by a collective +1.25 million or more raw votes. And he may lose them all. (Texas is his best potential narrow hold here in 2020.) In the 2012-to-2016 Democratic-to-Republican pickups—Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan—he carried them by a collective 600,000 or more raw votes. He may lose them all. (Ohio is his best potential narrow hold here in 2020.) These are 7 of the 30 states he carried. 54 percent of the nation’s people live in a state which ranks among the Top 10. (This includes me.) For those living in a state with ranks among the Top 20—New Jersey, Virginia, Washington, Arizona, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Indiana, Missouri, Maryland, and Wisconsin—they comprise 75 percent of the nation’s residents. And Trump—who in 2016 also carried Arizona, Tennessee, Indiana, Missouri, and a Republican pickup of Wisconsin (that year’s tipping-point state)—he is underperforming in each of them as well, and is likely to lose Arizona and Wisconsin. So, a 2016 Trump carried 12 of the nation’s Top 20 populous states. Here in 2020, polling for Trump shows him underperforming in all of them. (Note: It has been said, many times, that no Republican has won the presidency without carrying Ohio. Well, for states 100 years or more in age—and this is also applicable to North Dakota—this is also true with Arizona.)

My point is that these numbers—these shifts—tend to add up faster than some people realize. In 2016, Donald Trump’s Republican pickup of the presidency did not include the U.S. Popular Vote. His raw-vote margin was –2.8 million. His percentage-points margin was –2.09. So, for 2016 losing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, her margins were +2.8 million (raw votes) and +2.09 (percentage points). It would not be surprising, with a 2020 Democratic pickup of the presidency, from 140 million votes cast (up from the 138 million in 2016), to see the raw-vote margin hit +10 million with a percentage-points margin in the high single-digits (perhaps even +10).

Election 2020 is shaping up to become a Democratic wave—pickups for U.S. President and majority-control of the U.S. Senate, and a party hold for U.S. House—and it is a matter of estimating (some would prefer to use the word guessing) the percentage-points margin. They help to determine states count. I think 2020 Democratic nominee Joe Biden is liable to win with a margin between +8 to +10. (Meaning, I would estimate Donald Trump gets 44 or 45 percent. Joe Biden would receive 53 or 54 percent. In 2016, Trump received 45.93 to the 48.02 percent for Hillary Clinton.) Given this period’s electoral structure, and that since 1960 (except 1992 Bill Clinton) prevailing Democrats tend to carry +21 or +22 states in excess of their percentage-points margin in the U.S. Popular Vote, this would indicate carriage of 29 to 32 states. (In 2016, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton carried 20 states.) Very possibly this could result in carriage of all of the nation’s Top 10 populous states. (Which is rare.) And this would be in line with an ongoing pattern since 1992. That presidential winners have averaged 29 carried states. The range has been 26 to 32 carried states.

Republican incumbent Donald Trump is in position to become the eleventh unseated president in United States history, with what would become a Democratic pickup of the presidency for Joe Biden, due to COVID–19. This pandemic crisis, particularly here in the United States, is the focus of the people. The voting electorate. COVID–19 will make election of Biden happen. And for those who are wanting Trump out, COVID–19 is what will make that happen. 

I am not supportive of Joe Biden. I will not vote for him. But, I am one who likes to be aware, for as much as I can ask myself to be, and no matter how I may think and/or feel, of what is likely to happen.

In an early-August 2020 report in New York Times, Allan Licthman, a professor known for being accurate since the 1980s and for his book The Keys to the White House, went ahead and predicted Joe Biden will unseat Donald Trump. (Warning: There is a paywall.)

He Predicted Trump’s Win in 2016. Now He’s Ready to Call 2020.

There is something more I want to mention.

At another discussion site, a person asked, What can Trump do to prevent losing? I wrote, “Medicare for All.” (I wanted to make my answer short and direct.) Due to the fact that this was not at a site exclusively for people of one particular political ideology, my suggestion received no response. But, there was one person who later wrote and posted that what would help Trump is if he were to tweet less on Twitter.

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In the meantime, I want to share another excellent piece by Black Agenda Report’s Glen Ford. It was published last Thursday, August 27, 2020. I think Progressives Chat readers may appreciate it.

Biden Offers Nothing But More War, Austerity and White Supremacy – Without Trump

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Note to Readers: Given the fact that Progressives Chat blog topic threads will now run a full week, we do have a holiday weekend coming up. Labor Day Weekend. May it be a safe and pleasant one for us all.

Darling Lily

Emmy, Tony, and Grammy winner Lily Tomlin turns 81 next Tuesday.

She was born September 1, 1939, in Detroit, Michigan.

Lily Tomlin—who has been married to longtime collaborator Jane Wagner since 2013—has experienced, over the last several years, a career resurgence. This includes Tomlin’s Emmy nominated work on Netflix’s Grace and Frankie—also starring Jane Fonda, Martin Sheen, and Sam Waterston—and she came close to a 2015 Oscar nomination for her performance in Grandma. (Tomlin received a 1975 nomination for Robert Altman’s groundbreaking Nashville.) In 2014, Tomlin was one of the Kennedy Center honorees.

I was thinking of a political comment by Tomlin, which I heard a good forty years ago, which has stayed in my memory after all this time. But, before I quote it, there are more insights by Tomlin which are also worthy.

“Just remember—we’re all in this alone.”

“After all…in private, we’re all misfits.”

“Man invented language to satisfy his deep need to complain.”

“Reality is the leading cause of stress among those in touch with it.”

 — A joke about her relationship with her mother… —

“When I was growing up, my mother told me a lot of things which later turned out not to be true. She told me: … The men in Washington wouldn’t be there if they didn’t know what they were doing.”

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Note to Readers: Beginning next week, on Monday, August 31, 2020, at 06:00 a.m. ET, Progressives Chat blog topic threads will run for a full week. I will address this in the September 21 Progressives Chat.

The 2020 Democratic Ticket for…‘Relief’

On Tuesday, August 11, 2020, it became official: Joe Biden chose Kamala Harris to be his 2020 vice-presidential running mate on the Democratic ticket.

Last week was the 2020 Democratic National Convention.

I did not watch the convention.

I did not timely write and publish my reaction to Biden selecting Harris.

Until now.

This blog topic is my belated reaction. (And, frankly, my delay is appropriate.) 

I may surprise readers.

I may not.

My reaction is…relief.

I am relieved the 2020 Democratic ticket will be Joe Biden, of Delaware, and Kamala Harris, of California, and I will explain why.

My last vote for the Democrats, in a general election, was the 2014 midterm elections. That was during the presidency of Democrat Barack Obama with the Republicans having won that year a majority-control pickup of the United States Senate.

I denied the Democrats after the DNC rigged the presidential primaries for Hillary Clinton in 2016.

I denied the Democrats after they likewise shoved more corporate Democrats in the primaries and, eventually, the general in the 2018 midterm elections. (They knew, based on historical voting pattern, they would be the party to win the overall gains in the midterm elections of 2018 off Republican incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump.)

Here in 2020, I will once again deny the Democrats even while they are favored to win—thanks to COVID–19—pickups for both U.S. President and U.S. Senate. 

Since 2016, the masks have come off the faces of the Democratic Party. It has also come off the faces of many of their self-identified Democratic voters. And, in its current form, I will not vote for Team Blue. I will not vote for it because they are not on the left, are not moderate, and are actually right-wing. 

I do not self-identify with the Democratic Party. I do not self-identify with either major U.S. political party. To self-identify means to take that on—that is, as a self-identified Republican or a self-identified Democrat—as part of one’s identity. It is pride for many who do self-identify. They are very proud. But, the funny thing is, in elections—especially U.S. President—won by one’s preferred party, the one question that stumps a Loyal Republican or Loyal Democrat is,“What, to be specific, did you win?” No matter the words they use, that Loyal Republican’s or Loyal Democrat’s answer—that one’s team color has the presidency (while the other political party does not)—is all they have. 

This ticket—Biden and Harris—is one by and for the rulers of the Democratic Party who are among the oligarchs. Those involved intend to make sure, as they have for at least four decade, no real progressive (at least by U.S. standards)—not anyone who can take the country truly to the left (again, by U.S. standards) on economics and on a single payer healthcare system and on the Military Industrial Complex—will reach meaningful power. That is designed to prevent nomination to the higher and/or highest levels of office for anyone who they consider a threat. Biden/Harris is a Dream Ticket for the oligarchs and those who serve them under the banner of the Democratic Party. 

It is very good, after my previous willingness to vote for them in general elections, to be able to move past this point and consider myself divorced from the Democratic Party. It is a strong feeling of…relief.

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Note to Readers: The next blog topic will be published Friday, August 28, 2020, at 06:00 a.m. ET. I will also have a “Note to Readers” regarding Progressives Chat.

‘Unapologetic’ and ‘Obvious’

Unaplogetic has a video titled “Kyle Kulinski & Krystal Ball Keep Pushing Failed Takeover Of Dem Party.” 

I found myself, while viewing it, reading some comments from viewers.

It turns out both Unapologetic and a commenter named Captain Obvious are really perceptive.

The video is by Unapologetic.

Here are a couple comments (with some editing for clarification) by Captain Obvious:

Kyle Kulinski claims that he and Cenk Uygur did extensive research into the question of whether Leftists/progressives should attempt to take over the Democratic Party or start a 3rd party back in 2016 before starting the Justice Democrats. However, the 1st problem with this claim is that neither one of them has shared this “research” with the public so that we might all look at it. Both of them have only claimed to have done the research—so, just trust them on the correctness of the conclusion. The 2nd problem with all of this is that both Cenk and Kyle acted fairly surprised about the Donna Brazile ‘revelations’ in her [2017] book [Hacks…] about the DNC rigging of the 2016 Dem primary. Bear in mind that the timing of the Brazile revelations were after the forming of the Justice Democrats. So. if the rigging of the 2016 Dem primary was news to Cenk and Kyle when Donna Brazile published her book, then how could it have been a factor they considered in their “research”?

The 3rd problem with all of this is Kyle makes no adjustments in his outlook based on new evidence. Kyle has told Niko House that he is now agnostic towards the idea of election fraud particularly pertaining to the differences between the exit polls and vote results. However, this apparently never causes him to reconsider the conclusion of his supposed extensive “research into the matter. So, even when Kyle seems to be leaning into believing that the Dems might be outright cheating in their primaries, as indicated by the exit polls, he still never says a word about what all of that could mean in regards to taking over the party vs. building a new one. So, what Kyle does instead is what Cenk Uygur does—and that’s just [to] ignore it all. Since there were no WikiLeaks reveal or Donna Brazile book this time, in 2020, just pretend all the same issues of election fraud that happened in 2016 didn’t just happen again this time in 2020—and run with the MSM narrative that Sanders lost, fair and square, in a mostly free and fair primary. Ignore the widespread election integrity/election fraud issues in the Dem party because, if you do focus on it, it’s pretty apparent that Cenk and Kyle reached the wrong conclusion in their supposed “research” that they never published for others to see. In fact, I’d bet money their “research” was nothing more than a conversation in which Cenk told Kyle that starting a 3rd party would be too hard and Kyle agreed with little to no pushback.

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My stance is that the Dems are no longer a real political party at all and, therefore, must be destroyed and replaced by 3rd party—or no change will ever happen except for the change of things getting even worse. 

When I say the Dems are not a real political party, I mean that they don’t function as one. A political party is a collection of people with a shared worldview and a policy agenda. That policy agenda is stated in the party platform. That the Democratic Party platform is utterly meaningless, and bears no resemblance to the reality of how Dems operate in office, proves my point about the Dems not being a real political party. What the Dems are is a fundraising corporation and a mechanism of control designed to flush away all of the Left’s efforts to obtain progressive policy. The main function of the Dems is simply to maximize fundraising profits which therefore makes them, first and foremost, a fundraising corporation. The Dems are more than willing to lose elections, even thousands of seats nationwide, if they squeeze out even more money from corporate donors. While that doesn’t necessarily mean that any one particular Dem wants to lose a race they are running in, it does mean that fundraising is more important to Dems than winning elections as a whole. The policy the Dems produce in office is simply a function of the perpetual effort to maximize fundraising profits. This model happens to work because Democrats know the Republicans will also, when in office, only produce the same corporate policy which will inevitably cause a voter backlash. This is known as The Seesaw Effect. Both corporate “parties” are simply continually trading places as the party with the temporary majority share of power as Americans are so conditioned and brainwashed against building new parties that voters flip-flop back and forth between two ever-worsening choices. And all of this is why I have come to believe that Lefties/progressive who run in the Dem party, even if they win, are doing more harm than good. Because of how badly the Dems cheats the Left in their rigged Dem primaries, every progressive Dem who makes it through the gauntlet of a rigged Dem primary creates false hope in other Lefties that change is just right around the corner—and the DemEnter strategy is correct—when none of that is true. While a pitiful handful of progressive Dems might make it through the rigged Dem primaries, the vast majority won’t and can’t. This makes the ones who do make it through a sort of mirage the Left is spellbound by. And that mirage will keep the Left crawling forward like a dying man in the desert, achieving nothing, for decades.

‘FBI Caught Faking Documents To Russia-Gate!’

 

Jimmy Dore recently welcomed his guest, Aaron Maté, to discuss what we had already figured. But, of course, it is one more video worthy of the archives as a blog topic here on Progressives Chat.

Happy Birthday!

…To me.

I am now 49 years old.

No rush for next year! (Well, except to get rid of COVID–19.)

I do have a music connection.

Madonna was born on this day in 1958. (She turns 62.)

Elvis Presley died on this day in 1977. (He was born January 8, 1935 and was 42.)

Aretha Franklin died on this day in 2018. (She was born March 25, 1942 and was 76.)

(This blog topic is good only on this published date. Progressives Chat blog topics will resume this week with regular schedules of Monday and Friday. That is, August 17 and 21, 2020, at 06:00 a.m. ET.)

Repudiating Cenk Uygur and ‘The Young Turks’

MCSC Network had a video last week saying The Young Turks has sold its e-mail list to Joe Biden’s campaign. (It appears I am on the list. I checked the archives of my e-mails. And, sure enough—I received an e-mail from the Biden campaign. I also have received e-mails from The Young Turks, including soliciting for fundraising, which is interesting because I stopped being a member there circa 2016, as Cenk and TYT got behind Hillary Clinton.) The below video captures some of what is going on. I advise going to Rokfin, to check out HLM (formerly Hard Lens Media), for its July 29, 2020 program. (I did not see it published to YouTube.) HLM is referenced in the below MCSC Network video.

Not only is it time, it is also past time, to repudiate The Young Turks.

Cenk Uygur.

The organization.

The Young Turks.

Cenk Uygur sold out—and he sold out—The Young Turks by taking $20 million from Jeffrey Katzenberg and, eventually, he sold out in order to serve the corrupt, corporate, Democratic Party Establishment

Cenk Uygur and The Young Turks are not to be trusted.

Cenk Uygur and The Young Turks are to be repudiated.

Joe Rogan Turns 53

Joe Rogan turns 53 on Tuesday. 

Rogan was born August 11, 1967, in Newark, New Jersey. He spent much of his childhood and early adulthood living in Boston, Massachusetts. 

Joe Rogan, now famous for his The Joe Rogan Experience—which Spotify recently offered up $100 million for multi-year licensing rights for his podcast—is also an actor (the 1995–99 NBC comedy series NewsRadio, which also starred Dave Foley, Maura Tierney, Andy Dick, Khandi Alexander, Stephen Root, Vicki Lewis and, at the time of his death, Phil Hartman); a television-reality host (NBC’s 2001–06 and 2011–12 Fear Factor); a UFC commentator; and, of course, a standup comedian (with numerous albums and television specials).

Rogan is also a hell of an interviewer. I sense, with his The Joe Rogan Experience, he is this generation’s Johnny Carson. Like Carson, Rogan is a very engaging host, and interviewer, who is focused on and interested in his program’s guests. Not a lot of people can pull this off—and I count ABC’s Jimmy Kimmel, CBS’s Stephen Colbert, and NBC’s Jimmy Fallon among late-nighters who do not—with the consistent excellence as Rogan interviews numerous and various people of different stripes.

In his personal life, Joe Rogan is married since 2009 to Jessica Ditzel. They have three daughters. Rogan recently announced he, and The Joe Rogan Experience, will move from California to Texas.

Sprint—No More

I am 48 years old.

I have had a cell phone since the late-1990s.

I made a switch, in 2001, to Sprint with my connection to an employer giving me discounts.

This was in a period of my using a basic phone.

I was a late bloomer; but, finally, in 2015 I decided to move to a smartphone. 

I did my research, read Consumer Reports, and found that it would be necessary for me to switch providers. I was out of contract and, so, it was no problem. The best reviews for regard for overall service were with most favorable with Verizon—and that it is where I moved.

Five years later, and still with Verizon, and now T–Mobile has acquired Sprint. 

On August 2, the Sprint website ended. Try to go to the site, and it will take you to T–Mobile. (If you go to Wikipedia, it writes of Sprint for what it was; not is.)

Whenever an acquisition happens, it tends to be good for one faction—the corporation. Well, maybe the stockholders as well. Not always. An example with that is AT&T having acquired DirecTV in 2014, with the FCC giving approval in 2015, and with it becoming official shortly afterward. Nowadays, the financial experts think AT&T—which also owns HBO and others—fucked up and should get rid of DirecTV.

For some time, the four traditional mobile U.S. carriers were: Verizon, AT&T, T–Mobile, and Sprint. That was the order of their numbers in subscriptions. Sprint fell behind by, frankly, not getting with the times and by not making the right choices in continuing to build. In investing in itself. It became so bad for Sprint that it relinquished its former No. 3 spot to T–Mobile.

My choice with Verizon has to do with overall monthly plan cost. Four people, including myself, are on my account. How we use it. And that the service is good. But, if that changes, I have no problem moving on. And, perhaps, such a move may lead me to try T–Mobile.

It is interesting, especially in recent years, to see well-recognized brands go under. Whether it is in telecommunications or in other industry—like financial or retail—it serves as a reminder that no matter how strong that institution or that corporation had appeared to be, for quite some time, it can still end up with people leading it to its grave.

Election 2020: Three Months Out

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 marks 12 weeks from the scheduled date of the 2020 United States presidential election of Tuesday, November 3, 2020.

Recently, 45th United States president Donald Trump talked up possibly postponing the election. That would take Congress to approve that. Not likely would this happen especially with the fact that the United States House of Representatives is in the column for the Democrats. And it is one more thing thrown out there, by Trump, which a Trump-derangement-sufferer may take seriously while I do not.

It is Primary Day in my home state Michigan. (I haven’t kept track with others.) Not a presidential primary. (That was in March.) It is for down-ballot races including United States Senate and other offices. 

In the midterm elections of 2018, Michigan voters approved a proposal for more convenient voting which includes absentee voting. With the coronavirus pandemic, people are going for it. So am I. And I recently applied to be moved to voting in primaries and general elections via absentee voting on a permanent basis.

Last week, I received my ballot. I voted. I mailed it in. It is done. (Perhaps it will be no surprise—I voted against incumbent and establishment-preferred Democrats who are seeking re-nomination.)

Onto the general election which, at this point, is “Three Months Out”: I perceive there is no change in how this election is liable to play out. That COVID–19 is sinking the re-election prospects of Republican incumbent Donald Trump and is poised to take down Republicans’ attempts to hold the U.S. Senate. (A U.S. Popular Vote margin of Democratic +4 and +5 would deliver pickups for U.S. President and U.S. Senate to the Democratic Party.)

When it comes to percentage-points margins—to win by however many points nationally—it is in increments of +1 that helps to deliver an extra carried state. The Democrats are on a pattern, since 1960, of usually carrying +21 or +22 in excess of their U.S. Popular Vote margin. I sense this is a 9- or 10-point race for the Democrats to win the a pickup of the presidency with that indicated U.S. Popular Vote margin level. That would take the 2016-to-2020 Democrats from the 20 states, plus District of Columbia, carried by 2016 losing nominee Hillary Clinton, and yield carriage of 30 to 32 states for pickup winner Joe Biden. (The above map’s color key: Blue, as 2016-to-2020 Democratic Holds; Yellow, for those susceptible to flip from 2016 Republican to 2020 Democratic to reach carriage of up to 30 states. If 32 states were reached, I would estimate potential with two of the following: Alaska, Kansas, Montana, South Carolina, and Utah.)

Anyone who watches a program like The Hill’s The Rising can catch clips of hosts Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti going over latest poll numbers. (They have done a lot of that over the last two months.) Kyle Kulinski’s Secular Talk also has this covered. So does and has Jamarl Thomas. After a while, it feels like this repeats itself. But, this is for a general understanding of what is the trajectory of Election 2020. It is useful to people who may not follow electoral politics. Election 2020 is about COVID–19. And these polls, for one wanting a basic understanding, is indicating a voting electorate that is saying President Trump, seeking a second term in the midst of COVID–19, is highly likely not going to get re-elected.

‘The Black Caucus and the Dictatorship of (White) Capital’

Here is another excellent piece, from Black Agenda Report, by Glen Ford:

https://blackagendareport.com/black-caucus-and-dictatorship-white-capital

“Black Americans are historically the most peace-minded major U.S. political constituency, yet this is seldom reflected in the voting behavior of Black Democratic legislators, who apparently answer to a Higher Power (White Capital). Of the 48 full voting House members of the Congressional Black Caucus, 20 last week voted Nayon a bill that would have cut Pentagon spending by ten percent across the board – a modest and symbolic reduction. —Glen Ford