Election 2020: Three Months Out

Tuesday, August 4, 2020 marks 12 weeks from the scheduled date of the 2020 United States presidential election of Tuesday, November 3, 2020.

Recently, 45th United States president Donald Trump talked up possibly postponing the election. That would take Congress to approve that. Not likely would this happen especially with the fact that the United States House of Representatives is in the column for the Democrats. And it is one more thing thrown out there, by Trump, which a Trump-derangement-sufferer may take seriously while I do not.

It is Primary Day in my home state Michigan. (I haven’t kept track with others.) Not a presidential primary. (That was in March.) It is for down-ballot races including United States Senate and other offices. 

In the midterm elections of 2018, Michigan voters approved a proposal for more convenient voting which includes absentee voting. With the coronavirus pandemic, people are going for it. So am I. And I recently applied to be moved to voting in primaries and general elections via absentee voting on a permanent basis.

Last week, I received my ballot. I voted. I mailed it in. It is done. (Perhaps it will be no surprise—I voted against incumbent and establishment-preferred Democrats who are seeking re-nomination.)

Onto the general election which, at this point, is “Three Months Out”: I perceive there is no change in how this election is liable to play out. That COVID–19 is sinking the re-election prospects of Republican incumbent Donald Trump and is poised to take down Republicans’ attempts to hold the U.S. Senate. (A U.S. Popular Vote margin of Democratic +4 and +5 would deliver pickups for U.S. President and U.S. Senate to the Democratic Party.)

When it comes to percentage-points margins—to win by however many points nationally—it is in increments of +1 that helps to deliver an extra carried state. The Democrats are on a pattern, since 1960, of usually carrying +21 or +22 in excess of their U.S. Popular Vote margin. I sense this is a 9- or 10-point race for the Democrats to win the a pickup of the presidency with that indicated U.S. Popular Vote margin level. That would take the 2016-to-2020 Democrats from the 20 states, plus District of Columbia, carried by 2016 losing nominee Hillary Clinton, and yield carriage of 30 to 32 states for pickup winner Joe Biden. (The above map’s color key: Blue, as 2016-to-2020 Democratic Holds; Yellow, for those susceptible to flip from 2016 Republican to 2020 Democratic to reach carriage of up to 30 states. If 32 states were reached, I would estimate potential with two of the following: Alaska, Kansas, Montana, South Carolina, and Utah.)

Anyone who watches a program like The Hill’s The Rising can catch clips of hosts Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti going over latest poll numbers. (They have done a lot of that over the last two months.) Kyle Kulinski’s Secular Talk also has this covered. So does and has Jamarl Thomas. After a while, it feels like this repeats itself. But, this is for a general understanding of what is the trajectory of Election 2020. It is useful to people who may not follow electoral politics. Election 2020 is about COVID–19. And these polls, for one wanting a basic understanding, is indicating a voting electorate that is saying President Trump, seeking a second term in the midst of COVID–19, is highly likely not going to get re-elected.