Jimmy Dore recently interviewed Glenn Greenwald on a number of topics which includes the attorney’s and journalist’s recent exit from The Intercept.
Monday, November 30, 2020
Monday, November 23, 2020
Monday, November 16, 2020
The State of Ohio: A Bellwether No More
For the first time since 1960, the state of Ohio did not vote with the winner of the recent 2020 United States presidential election.
I was born in 1971.
During my lifetime, prior to 2020, the only state carried by all presidential winners in that period was Ohio.
Ohio voted with the winners of Elections 1964 to 2016.
This was a period of 52 years and 14 consecutive cycles.
The 2016 result had many sensing Ohio was on the verge of ending its bellwether status. It was a Republican pickup for Donald Trump by +8.07 percentage points while he lost the U.S. Popular Vote by –2.09. So, it was 10.16 points more Republican than the nation. But, had Trump won the U.S. Popular Vote, I estimate his margin would have between +2.15 to +2.64, so that adjustment made Ohio more like +5.43 to +5.92 points more Republican.
The 2020 results make it more clear. The margin in Ohio was similar—over +8 points. But, with a Democratic pickup of the presidency to Joe Biden with a national margin of +3 or +4, Ohio voted +11 or +12 points more Republican than the nation.
Since 1968, every time the White House switched parties, a Republican or a Democratic pickup winner won over to his party at least one state which has since not voted for the party which lost it.
Here were those applicable:
• 1968 Republican pickup winner Richard Nixon: *Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska [statewide], North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming. (Alaska first voted in 1960. It carried Democratic just once—specifically for 1964 Lyndon Johnson.)
• 1976 Democratic pickup winner Jimmy Carter: Minnesota.
• 1980 Republican pickup winner Ronald Reagan: Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Texas.
• 1992 Democratic pickup winner Bill Clinton: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine [statewide], Maryland, New Jersey, and Vermont.
• 2000 Republican pickup winner George W. Bush: Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Tennessee, and West Virginia.
• 2008 Democratic pickup winner Barack Obama: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Virginia.
• 2016 Republican pickup winner Donald Trump: Florida, Iowa, and Ohio. (Also a pickup: non-state Maine’s 2nd Congressional District.)
The 2020 Democratic pickups for Joe Biden are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. (Also a pickup: non-state Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.)
It is too soon to say anything about the 2020 Democratic pickups. But, my feeling is that the Rust Belt trio are now the best bellwether states. That the next time the White House switches from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party, those three will flip and carry. So, it may be that, with Election 2020, Arizona and Georgia will have realigned to the Democrats.
We have yet to find out if any of the 2016 Republican pickups, which did not flip as 2020 Democratic pickups, can be won back. I consider Florida as feasible. (Unseated Trump held it by +3 points while he lost nationally by the roughly the same.) But, I am writing off Iowa (with a similar margin as the Buckeye State). And that brings me to even more about Ohio.
Ohio was on an incredible streak: 14 consecutive cycles. Historically, the record belongs to both Nevada and New Mexico. Since the latter first voted in 1912, the year it was admitted into the union as the 47th state, the two voted with all winners for the next 60 years until 1972. During that period, Nevada and New Mexico voted with all winners in 16 consecutive cycles. So, a 2020 Ohio was facing the following possibilities: make it 15 in a row; match the record; surpass the record; or end its streak.
It may be refreshing to no longer defer to Ohio as the leading influence in U.S. presidential elections. Nothing goes on forever. We have had other bellwethers. California and Illinois voted for 22 and 23 of the 25 winners of the 20th century. Missouri voted for all winners, except in 1956, from 1904 to 2004. Tennessee voted with all winners, except in 1924 and 1960, from 1912 to 2004. And there are the pair Nevada and New Mexico. After so long, they dropped off—and they ended up realigning to one of the two major political parties. And, so, as Ohio goes…so goes the nation [no more].
Monday, November 9, 2020
Responding to Election 2020
Last week’s 2020 presidential election—the 59th in the history of the United States—turned out to be a result of Democratic challenger Joe Biden having unseated Republican incumbent Donald Trump.
Biden held the 2016 map for the Democrats—with carriage of 20 states, District of Columbia, and 232 electoral votes—and won pickups of the three Rust Belt bellwethers Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania along with Arizona and Georgia and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. (By this publication’s date some projected Arizona while none have projected Georgia.) Biden will likely end up with 25 states, plus Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District (area of Omaha), District of Columbia, and 306 electoral votes. (That was the original electoral-vote score for 2016 Republican pickup winner Trump.)
So, it is time to give a breakdown of what I observed.
Polls Failure
In my predictions, I thought Joe Biden would win the U.S. Popular Vote by +9 with carriage of 30 states. Formula is to take the percentage-points margin, in the U.S. Popular Vote, and add +21 or +22 for the amount of carried states. With exception of 1992, prevailing Democrats have been on that pattern since 1960. But, with the results not complete, it turns out Biden will probably win the U.S. Popular Vote by either +3 or +4 with carriage of 25 states. So, the formula sticks. But what stinks is the polling. I am not in the business of polling. Clearly some of those who are may not be well-suited. The narrative was a Democratic landslide—possibly up to 30 states and 413 electoral votes—but instead there will be five less states and 107 fewer electoral votes. This also means that 2020 Democratic wave was not enough to deliver the U.S. Senate. (Well, unless the two runoff races in Georgia see the Democrats win pickups to get the upper chamber’s numbers to 50-vs.-50.) It is no wonder people do not trust polls.
Trump Threatens to Sue
Donald Trump wants to sue for losing three Top 10 populous states—which would bring him down from having carried seven in 2016 to four in 2020—along with the other two states ranking in the Top 20 and a congressional district. Is anyone, who is not usually fooled into believing everything said or reported, taking this seriously? Trump is our nation’s first troll president. Come January 20, 2021, at 12:00 p.m. ET, is the beginning of the next presidential period. True if it were to be a second term for Trump. True with it becoming a first term for Biden. Trump will be out of the White House whether or not he minds.
Democrats Lose Seats in the U.S. House
Yes. In 2018, when they won a majority pickup of the U.S. House, the Democrats won the U.S. Popular Vote by +8.56. (It was Democratic 53.41% vs. Republican 44.85%.) Not matching that national margin (it has yet to be determined but is likely close to the presidential national margin) means the 2020 Democrats did not gain seats, as they could have with a presidential U.S. Popular Vote of +9, but that the overall net gains were won by the Republicans. So, numerous corporate freshman from the Class of 2018 are out, including Clinton cabinet member Donna Shalala of Florida #27.
A Sense of Underwhelming
The Democratic Wave turned out to be a Moderate Blue Wave. Yes—it was sufficient. But, other than the electoral results, I don’t find it impressive. I find it underwhelming. Republican incumbent Trump, for having presided over COVID–19, should have been landslided out of office. Then again, Democratic nominee Joe Biden is underwhelming. Strangely, the results are more understandable—that the Democrats are not truly the answer—and, so, that is why I am underwhelmed.
Wise Choice
I am satisfied with my decision to not vote in the 2020 United States presidential election. Trump and Biden are terrible. The Green Party nomination was rigged. And I wasn’t focused, due to personal reasons, on for whom else I could write-in vote. This Wise Choice is actually a relatable choice. Plenty of voting-eligible U.S. citizens refrain from voting. It is due to an unworthiness of the candidates and a corrupt and alienating political system. So, it is very understandable.
Monday, November 2, 2020
Election 2020 Week … ‘The Billionaires’ Duopoly Wins on Tuesday’
As originally planned, “Election 2020 Week” is meant to cover Election Day and Election Night
I encourage readers of Progressives Chat to comment on any part of the general election.
(I do not know how much I will participate.)
In the meantime, here is a recommended piece by Black Agenda Report’s Glen Ford:
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