Responding to Election 2020

Last week’s 2020 presidential election—the 59th in the history of the United States—turned out to be a result of Democratic challenger Joe Biden having unseated Republican incumbent Donald Trump.

Biden held the 2016 map for the Democrats—with carriage of 20 states, District of Columbia, and 232 electoral votes—and won pickups of the three Rust Belt bellwethers Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania along with Arizona and Georgia and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. (By this publication’s date some projected Arizona while none have projected Georgia.) Biden will likely end up with 25 states, plus Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District (area of Omaha), District of Columbia, and 306 electoral votes. (That was the original electoral-vote score for 2016 Republican pickup winner Trump.)

So, it is time to give a breakdown of what I observed.

Polls Failure

In my predictions, I thought Joe Biden would win the U.S. Popular Vote by +9 with carriage of 30 states. Formula is to take the percentage-points margin, in the U.S. Popular Vote, and add +21 or +22 for the amount of carried states. With exception of 1992, prevailing Democrats have been on that pattern since 1960. But, with the results not complete, it turns out Biden will probably win the U.S. Popular Vote by either +3 or +4 with carriage of 25 states. So, the formula sticks. But what stinks is the polling. I am not in the business of polling. Clearly some of those who are may not be well-suited. The narrative was a Democratic landslide—possibly up to 30 states and 413 electoral votes—but instead there will be five less states and 107 fewer electoral votes. This also means that 2020 Democratic wave was not enough to deliver the U.S. Senate. (Well, unless the two runoff races in Georgia see the Democrats win pickups to get the upper chamber’s numbers to 50-vs.-50.) It is no wonder people do not trust polls.

Trump Threatens to Sue

Donald Trump wants to sue for losing three Top 10 populous states—which would bring him down from having carried seven in 2016 to four in 2020—along with the other two states ranking in the Top 20 and a congressional district. Is anyone, who is not usually fooled into believing everything said or reported, taking this seriously? Trump is our nation’s first troll president. Come January 20, 2021, at 12:00 p.m. ET, is the beginning of the next presidential period. True if it were to be a second term for Trump. True with it becoming a first term for Biden. Trump will be out of the White House whether or not he minds.

Democrats Lose Seats in the U.S. House

Yes. In 2018, when they won a majority pickup of the U.S. House, the Democrats won the U.S. Popular Vote by +8.56. (It was Democratic 53.41% vs. Republican 44.85%.) Not matching that national margin (it has yet to be determined but is likely close to the presidential national margin) means the 2020 Democrats did not gain seats, as they could have with a presidential U.S. Popular Vote of +9, but that the overall net gains were won by the Republicans. So, numerous corporate freshman from the Class of 2018 are out, including Clinton cabinet member Donna Shalala of Florida #27. 

A Sense of Underwhelming

The Democratic Wave turned out to be a Moderate Blue Wave. Yes—it was sufficient. But, other than the electoral results, I don’t find it impressive. I find it underwhelming. Republican incumbent Trump, for having presided over COVID–19, should have been landslided out of office. Then again, Democratic nominee Joe Biden is underwhelming. Strangely, the results are more understandable—that the Democrats are not truly the answer—and, so, that is why I am underwhelmed.

Wise Choice

I am satisfied with my decision to not vote in the 2020 United States presidential election. Trump and Biden are terrible. The Green Party nomination was rigged. And I wasn’t focused, due to personal reasons, on for whom else I could write-in vote. This Wise Choice is actually a relatable choice. Plenty of voting-eligible U.S. citizens refrain from voting. It is due to an unworthiness of the candidates and a corrupt and alienating political system. So, it is very understandable.