‘Trump as Othello in a Corporate Theater’

Black Agenda Report’s Glen Ford remembers, as we have not forgotten, the corrupt, corporate Democratic  Party Establishment—and Hillary Clinton—delivered the presidency of Donald Trump.

Trump as Othello in a Corporate Theater

Early Midterm 2022 Prediction: Republicans Will Flip the U.S. House

Joe Biden takes office this Wednesday [January 20, 2021]. He becomes the 46th president of the United States on that date at 12:00 p.m. ET.

In the 2020 United States presidential election, people were taken by surprise when Democrats flipped the presidency of the United States—with Joe Biden having unseated incumbent Donald Trump—while it was Republicans who gained seats in the U.S. House.

Simple explanation: When the Democrats flipped the U.S. House in the midterm elections of 2018, they won the U.S. Popular Vote by +8.56 percentage points. (Result: Democratic 53.41% vs. Republican 45.85%.) In 2020, with the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. President a margin of Democratic +4.45, U.S. House Democrats prevailed by +3.1. The 2018-to-2020 national shift—U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. House—was Republican +5.4 to +5.5. And the GOP, despite holding the White House and losing it, gained around +2 seats with each percentage point nationally shifted in their direction. (By the way: The opposite overall outcome for the lower chamber of Congress happened in 2016 with the Democrats.)

I am predicting, this far in advance, the Republicans will flip the U.S. House with the midterm elections of 2022. They will need to win a net gain of +6 seats. All the 2022 Republicans will need is a national shift of +2 percentage points. History shows, since the 1940s, when the White House opposition party flips the U.S. House in a midterm election cycle, they tend to win a net gain +3.50 to +4 seats with each percentage point nationally shifted in their direction. The 2022 Republicans can lose the U.S. Popular Vote by –1 and win a net gain of +7 or +8 seats to narrowly take over the U.S. House. (My guess is that they would end up on the positive side with plenty of comfort.)

This may seem hasty. But, it speaks to history in another way: With exceptions of 1934, 1998, and 2002, every midterm election from 1914 to 2018 saw the White House opposition party be the one which won the overall gains. Franklin Roosevelt was the only president, elected beyond one term, who never saw his party lose control of either house of Congress. Richard Nixon was the only president, elected beyond one term, who never saw his party have control of either house of Congress. So, it is common. And, as I am certain it is well-recognized by readers of Progressives Chat, Joe Biden is no Franklin Roosevelt.

Welcoming Richard Medhurst

I am welcoming to the Progressives Chat “Recommendations” list Richard Medhurst.

(I added him over the past weekend.)

According to his channel on YouTube [Richard Medhurst—Videos], Medhurst, born in 1992, is an independent journalist born in Syria. 

“Medhurst hosts regular live broadcasts discussing history, [United States] politics, international relations and the Middle East, rooted in an anti-imperialist viewpoint.” 

(Recommended reading is a 2020 interview with Danny Haiphong in Black Agenda Report: Syria, Corporate Media Lies, and the True Face of Imperialism: An Interview with Richard Medhurst.)

I recently watched numerous of Medhurst’s videos. He has interviewed Jimmy Dore. He interviewed Chris Hedges. And I think Richard Medhurst will be a good addition for us here at Progressives Chat.

‘The Squad’ Are Frauds!

On Sunday [January 3, 2021], all four members also known as “The Squad”—Alexandria Ocasio–Cortez, Ilhan Omar, Rashid Talib, and Ayanna Presley—voted for Nancy Pelosi to be re-elected speaker of the United States House of Representatives.

They weren’t the only so-called progressives to vote for Pelosi. So did, for example, Ro Khanna.

Over the last month, with #ForceTheVote designed to move these members to use their voting leverage to deny Pelosi their re-election votes if she did not bring to the floor of the U.S. House a vote on Medicare for All, it was glaringly obvious this was the only strategy to make members of the lower chamber of Congress to be able to vote on the bill during this pandemic crisis that is COVID–19.

“The Squad”—who have claimed they want and have run on Medicare for All—are frauds.

Every one of the U.S. House Democrats who are supposedly progressives who did not #ForceTheVote, and that they went ahead and rubber-stamped Pelosi for two more years, showed us they are not worthy of being seen and/or heard. They are not true progressives. They are not allies. They also make something else clear: That voting in general elections for the Democratic Party—for any candidate who is affiliated with Team Blue—is foolish for any person who is an actual progressive.

This has now reached a point in which I trust the Republican Party more than the Democratic Party. I am not alone. I will have more to say about this next week.