Joe Biden takes office this Wednesday [January 20, 2021]. He becomes the 46th president of the United States on that date at 12:00 p.m. ET.
In the 2020 United States presidential election, people were taken by surprise when Democrats flipped the presidency of the United States—with Joe Biden having unseated incumbent Donald Trump—while it was Republicans who gained seats in the U.S. House.
Simple explanation: When the Democrats flipped the U.S. House in the midterm elections of 2018, they won the U.S. Popular Vote by +8.56 percentage points. (Result: Democratic 53.41% vs. Republican 45.85%.) In 2020, with the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. President a margin of Democratic +4.45, U.S. House Democrats prevailed by +3.1. The 2018-to-2020 national shift—U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. House—was Republican +5.4 to +5.5. And the GOP, despite holding the White House and losing it, gained around +2 seats with each percentage point nationally shifted in their direction. (By the way: The opposite overall outcome for the lower chamber of Congress happened in 2016 with the Democrats.)
I am predicting, this far in advance, the Republicans will flip the U.S. House with the midterm elections of 2022. They will need to win a net gain of +6 seats. All the 2022 Republicans will need is a national shift of +2 percentage points. History shows, since the 1940s, when the White House opposition party flips the U.S. House in a midterm election cycle, they tend to win a net gain +3.50 to +4 seats with each percentage point nationally shifted in their direction. The 2022 Republicans can lose the U.S. Popular Vote by –1 and win a net gain of +7 or +8 seats to narrowly take over the U.S. House. (My guess is that they would end up on the positive side with plenty of comfort.)
This may seem hasty. But, it speaks to history in another way: With exceptions of 1934, 1998, and 2002, every midterm election from 1914 to 2018 saw the White House opposition party be the one which won the overall gains. Franklin Roosevelt was the only president, elected beyond one term, who never saw his party lose control of either house of Congress. Richard Nixon was the only president, elected beyond one term, who never saw his party have control of either house of Congress. So, it is common. And, as I am certain it is well-recognized by readers of Progressives Chat, Joe Biden is no Franklin Roosevelt.
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