Tuesday, November 5, 2024, the scheduled date for the 2024 United States presidential election, is exactly nine months from the date of this week’s blog topic.
Given this week is also the caucus and the primary [Republican] in Nevada, this may be good timing for an update on my perspective.
Refer to the above electoral map. All states colored in red carried in 2020 for an unseated Republican incumbent Donald Trump. All states in yellow carried in 2020 for then-Democratic challenger and pickup winner—and, now, incumbent—Joe Biden.
This is important because, historically, no past electoral map has ever been duplicated. This means, at minimum, one state will switch color from 2020 to 2024. If this year was to end up a Democratic hold, for re-election for Biden, most likely to flip would be North Carolina. (I addressed that state in this 2023 blog topic: “Next In Line”.) But, over the last several months, no source has reported North Carolina as a tossup; commonly the state has been rated as, at a minimum, Lean Republican [hold].
This is why, for illustrative purpose, I show the above states in yellow as the ones which can feasibility switch color/party. They are all…2020 Democratic-to-2024 Republican.
Considering Biden’s job approval is struggling for 40 percent (Gallup’s 2023 end-of-year job-approval performance for Biden is 39 percent), and with no 2020 Republican/Trump state in a feasible position to flip 2024 Democratic/Biden, this has become obvious.
I am reminded of Election 2008. In November 2007, one year out from the November 4, 2008 United States presidential election, [ABC World News Tonight] had a report. Then-hosted by Charles Gibson, and in a discussion with George Stephanopuolos, the numbers were in with regard for Republican incumbent U.S. president George W. Bush. His job approval was below 40 percent. (Gallup, with its tracking history for U.S. presidents’s job approval, shows Bush was under 40 percent following the 2006 midterm elections—the year his Republican Party saw the Democratic Party flip both houses of Congress—through the remainder of his presidency.) Wrong track number, for Bush, was over 70 percent. Gibson and Stephanopoulos, with acknowledging Bush was term-limited, honed in on what the chances were for the incumbent party, the Republican Party, for being able to win Election 2008. To hold the White House. Stephanopoulos told Gibson he talked with some Republicans on Capitol Hill. They told Stephanopoulos, “[Election 2008] was the Democrats’s to lose.” That, as observed by Stephanopoulos, “the tide of history is against them [the 2008 Republicans].”
I recognize the polls which came in in early-November 2023, and which were reported by numerous sources (including videos by The Jimmy Dore Show and Due Dissidence), were already saying plenty. The timing is following a 16-year parallel—2007-to-2008 and 2023-to-2024—also involving a low-approval U.S. president. The differences: Election 2024 has an incumbent U.S. president who is not term-limited—and is eligible for possible re-election—and the incumbent parties are the inverse. The tide of history is against…the 2024 Democrats (with or without re-nomination for Joe Biden). Election 2024 is…the Republicans’s to lose.
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