I have no specific blog topic this week with regard for politics.
I am busy, due to some personal reasons, and then I get to have something else hit me.
Last week’s blog topic, “‘Uncommitted’ to Biden,” did not include any pictures—which I had intended—because, somehow, I could not get any into the draft of the blog [entry, prior to scheduled publishing date].
I attempted to do so again, after the blog became published—say, last Tuesday [March 12, 2024]—via an edit. (Following an edit, I can update a given blog topic which already published.)
No luck.
Every once in a while, I turn around and—lo and behold!—Google does something with Blogger—which is the platform used for Progressives Chat—which creates a problem for me. I then hope it is temporary. (Google did this over a year ago with embedding a video into the drafts for blog topics.)
I will be frank: I am very annoyed. And frustrated. I am not impressed with whatever changes, from time to time, a platform makes with some apparent assumption that it will definitely improve usage. This gets me to wonder if I should consider a different platform, such as WordPress, and move on.
I will try again. (If not this week then by the end of March.)
I am open for suggestions and advice.
• Joe Biden is in position for re-nomination in the Democratic Party for a second consecutive cycle.
The 2024 Super Tuesday results were better for Trump.
Despite claims that former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley (who has since ended her campaign) ate into Trump’s percentage of support, he is not the sitting president. Haley won District of Columbia and Vermont. That is not nothing. But the following should be considered: they were the top two best-performed non-states and states, in the 2020 general election, for a prevailing Joe Biden. (I noted this, last week, in a Super Chat which was read on Due Dissidence.)
What should also not be dismissed, as noted on Wikipedia, is this: “[U.S. president Joe] Biden, who lost American Samoa to venture capitalist Jason Palmer, became the first incumbent president to lose a contest while appearing on the ballot since Jimmy Carter in 1980” [2024 American Samoa presidential caucuses].
The incumbent U.S. president is Biden. The onus is on Biden. Trump, since he is not the incumbent, would win re-election, just as he won his first term in 2016, in an opposition-party pickup. So, he does not have this stress. A 2024 Trump, in a way, began at the starting line. For Biden, the sitting U.S. president who is on defense and is trying to win re-election to a second consecutive term (while struggling for 40 percent in job approval), his percentage in party-vote support is troubling.
Consider:
• All 50 states and District of Columbia have been participating in the presidential-nominating process—primaries and caucuses—since 1976 (Democratic Party) and 1980 (Republican Party).
• Over the last 40-plus years, the following incumbents won re-elections to a second consecutive term: Ronald Reagan, 1984; Bill Clinton, 1996; George W. Bush, 2004; and Barack Obama, 2012. (The party advantage was equal: two Republicans and two Democrats.)
• En route to their renominations, each of Reagan, Clinton, Bush, and Obama won their primaries with at least (whole-number estimate) 89 percent nationwide in total votes. That is…9 of every 10 votes. Reagan received 99 percent. Bush received 98 percent. Clinton and Obama each received 89 percent.
Effective with the 2024 Super Tuesday results of March 5, 2024, Biden has 85.7 percent.
This does not mean 9 of every 10 votes—a good 89 or 90 percent—for re-nomination has always resulted, in the general election, with re-election for an incumbent president. A 2020 re-nominated Trump, who would move on to become unseated by Biden, received 94 percent.
This is, for a 2024 Biden, weakened support.
This is weakened support within one’s political party.
Uncommitted—which nabbed double-digit percentages of the vote in Michigan (13 percent), Minnesota (19 percent), and North Carolina (13 percent)—is not and has not been on the ballots in all contests. But it is making a statement. Even more stunning a showing was in Hawaii—which has carried for the Democrats in general elections since its first vote in 1960 (with exceptions for the 49-state re-elections of 1972 and 1984 Republican incumbents Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan)—as it delivered Uncommitted to the tune of 29 percent.
Uncommitted, on the Democratic side, is performing so far at 5 percent.
The other contests, on the historic timeline, in which Uncommitted (or Noncommitted or No preference or None of the Candidates) performed above that [so far] national average of 5 percent: Nevada (6 percent); Alabama (6 percent); Colorado (9 percent); Massachusetts (9 percent); and Tennessee (8 percent).
Among the states, played out so far, without the Uncommitted option: New Hampshire (with a “Ceasefire” write-in vote which nabbed 1 percent); South Carolina; Arkansas; California; Maine; Oklahoma; Texas; Utah; Vermont; and Virginia.
For all these contests—including the nation’s two most-populous states—which did not have an option for Uncommitted (or other wording): This is still saying something.
There remain many contests on the schedule. This includes six of the Top 10 populous states: Florida; New York; Pennsylvania; Illinois; Ohio; and Georgia. Biden’s total votes—and his percentage of the party-vote nationwide—will likely increase. (This would be due to participating voters, perhaps, conceding that the nomination is Biden’s.) But I think there is more to keep in mind.
The fact that a top bellwether state like Michigan (one of only three states carried by all winners in each of the last four United States presidential election cycles from 2008 to 2020) was not so committed to re-nominating the 46th U.S. president is bad news for the 2024 Democrats and Biden.
Give further consideration to two more states which are also influential on the electoral map.
North Carolina is a rising bellwether state. It was the 25th best-performed state for the 2020 Republicans and the 26th best state for the 2020 Democrats. (Each of Trump and Biden carried 25 states in 2020.) It is just about centered for where states perform (when looking at a given state from the positions of both major parties). North Carolina—which has been carried in almost 80 percent of the presidential elections since 1928—is likely to vote for the winning party here in 2024. (The 2024 Democrats would have to prevail for U.S. President for a feasible shot at flipping it.)
Nevada was carried in the 2020 Democratic column by a mere +2.39 percentage points. Biden won nationally by +4.45. It was the only 2016-to-2020 Democratic hold which performed lower than the party’s U.S. Popular Vote margin. It is poised to become a 2024 Republican pickup if Trump unseats Biden. (Currently…I think this will happen.)
I sense Nevada and especially Michigan, both of which were on the primaries schedule before Super Tuesday, may have set a theme for some of these 2024 Super Tuesday Democratic contests…and some of the upcoming ones which will also have an Uncommitted option on their ballots.
We will find out.
Note to Readers: I had trouble Sunday [03.10.2024] evening with including a picture in this blog topic. I had to give up and leave it scheduled to publish. Every once in a while, Google becomes a problem. I am hoping, and it seems to be a glitch, this will become resolved. It is a pain. And I do not appreciate it.
The time has arrived.
On Tuesday, March 5, 2024, a total of 15 states and 16 contests are on the schedule specifically for the Republican Party. (I give Team Red more focus because they are the White House opposition party. The incumbent, Democratic-affiliated U.S. president Joe Biden, is positioned for re-nomination.)
The total delegates are 874. This is, according to Wikipedia, 36 percent of the 2,429 total delegates for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination of which 1,215 is sufficient for the nomination. (Note: The above “1257” number are for the total delegates still remaining after Super Tuesday.)
On this Super Tuesday are three of the nation’s Top 10 most-populous states: California, Texas, and North Carolina. Already in the books, as it was the first scheduled Top 10 state, is Michigan. (What to watch, from that result, is any further impact by “Uncommitted” votes on the Democratic side.)
On the 2024 Republican Party’s Super Tuesday schedule, as indicated above, are primaries in solid red. (This includes non-state District of Columbia.) Those in medium-light red are caucuses. (This includes non-state American Samoa.) Ones appearing in light red are the contests already completed.
It has been considered a foregone conclusion that the 2024 Republican presidential nomination is with Donald Trump. Well, that is…based on the history of the process of these primaries…that this was effectively achieved with his win with the January 23, 2024 primary in New Hampshire. (He has, so far, won nearly all contests which have played out. Ex-South Carolina governor Nikki Haley won the primary in District of Columbia.) The process is more about racking up the wins, for the delegates count, as Trump is en route to re-nomination.
If Trump wins every contest on the schedule this Tuesday, or nearly all, there will be no more blog topics specific to the 2024 scheduled primaries which will follow. There would be, realistically, no point.
