• Joe Biden is in position for re-nomination in the Democratic Party for a second consecutive cycle.
The 2024 Super Tuesday results were better for Trump.
Despite claims that former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley (who has since ended her campaign) ate into Trump’s percentage of support, he is not the sitting president. Haley won District of Columbia and Vermont. That is not nothing. But the following should be considered: they were the top two best-performed non-states and states, in the 2020 general election, for a prevailing Joe Biden. (I noted this, last week, in a Super Chat which was read on Due Dissidence.)
What should also not be dismissed, as noted on Wikipedia, is this: “[U.S. president Joe] Biden, who lost American Samoa to venture capitalist Jason Palmer, became the first incumbent president to lose a contest while appearing on the ballot since Jimmy Carter in 1980” [2024 American Samoa presidential caucuses].
The incumbent U.S. president is Biden. The onus is on Biden. Trump, since he is not the incumbent, would win re-election, just as he won his first term in 2016, in an opposition-party pickup. So, he does not have this stress. A 2024 Trump, in a way, began at the starting line. For Biden, the sitting U.S. president who is on defense and is trying to win re-election to a second consecutive term (while struggling for 40 percent in job approval), his percentage in party-vote support is troubling.
Consider:
• All 50 states and District of Columbia have been participating in the presidential-nominating process—primaries and caucuses—since 1976 (Democratic Party) and 1980 (Republican Party).
• Over the last 40-plus years, the following incumbents won re-elections to a second consecutive term: Ronald Reagan, 1984; Bill Clinton, 1996; George W. Bush, 2004; and Barack Obama, 2012. (The party advantage was equal: two Republicans and two Democrats.)
• En route to their renominations, each of Reagan, Clinton, Bush, and Obama won their primaries with at least (whole-number estimate) 89 percent nationwide in total votes. That is…9 of every 10 votes. Reagan received 99 percent. Bush received 98 percent. Clinton and Obama each received 89 percent.
Effective with the 2024 Super Tuesday results of March 5, 2024, Biden has 85.7 percent.
This does not mean 9 of every 10 votes—a good 89 or 90 percent—for re-nomination has always resulted, in the general election, with re-election for an incumbent president. A 2020 re-nominated Trump, who would move on to become unseated by Biden, received 94 percent.
This is, for a 2024 Biden, weakened support.
This is weakened support within one’s political party.
Uncommitted—which nabbed double-digit percentages of the vote in Michigan (13 percent), Minnesota (19 percent), and North Carolina (13 percent)—is not and has not been on the ballots in all contests. But it is making a statement. Even more stunning a showing was in Hawaii—which has carried for the Democrats in general elections since its first vote in 1960 (with exceptions for the 49-state re-elections of 1972 and 1984 Republican incumbents Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan)—as it delivered Uncommitted to the tune of 29 percent.
Uncommitted, on the Democratic side, is performing so far at 5 percent.
The other contests, on the historic timeline, in which Uncommitted (or Noncommitted or No preference or None of the Candidates) performed above that [so far] national average of 5 percent: Nevada (6 percent); Alabama (6 percent); Colorado (9 percent); Massachusetts (9 percent); and Tennessee (8 percent).
Among the states, played out so far, without the Uncommitted option: New Hampshire (with a “Ceasefire” write-in vote which nabbed 1 percent); South Carolina; Arkansas; California; Maine; Oklahoma; Texas; Utah; Vermont; and Virginia.
For all these contests—including the nation’s two most-populous states—which did not have an option for Uncommitted (or other wording): This is still saying something.
There remain many contests on the schedule. This includes six of the Top 10 populous states: Florida; New York; Pennsylvania; Illinois; Ohio; and Georgia. Biden’s total votes—and his percentage of the party-vote nationwide—will likely increase. (This would be due to participating voters, perhaps, conceding that the nomination is Biden’s.) But I think there is more to keep in mind.
The fact that a top bellwether state like Michigan (one of only three states carried by all winners in each of the last four United States presidential election cycles from 2008 to 2020) was not so committed to re-nominating the 46th U.S. president is bad news for the 2024 Democrats and Biden.
Give further consideration to two more states which are also influential on the electoral map.
North Carolina is a rising bellwether state. It was the 25th best-performed state for the 2020 Republicans and the 26th best state for the 2020 Democrats. (Each of Trump and Biden carried 25 states in 2020.) It is just about centered for where states perform (when looking at a given state from the positions of both major parties). North Carolina—which has been carried in almost 80 percent of the presidential elections since 1928—is likely to vote for the winning party here in 2024. (The 2024 Democrats would have to prevail for U.S. President for a feasible shot at flipping it.)
Nevada was carried in the 2020 Democratic column by a mere +2.39 percentage points. Biden won nationally by +4.45. It was the only 2016-to-2020 Democratic hold which performed lower than the party’s U.S. Popular Vote margin. It is poised to become a 2024 Republican pickup if Trump unseats Biden. (Currently…I think this will happen.)
I sense Nevada and especially Michigan, both of which were on the primaries schedule before Super Tuesday, may have set a theme for some of these 2024 Super Tuesday Democratic contests…and some of the upcoming ones which will also have an Uncommitted option on their ballots.
We will find out.
Note to Readers: I had trouble Sunday [03.10.2024] evening with including a picture in this blog topic. I had to give up and leave it scheduled to publish. Every once in a while, Google becomes a problem. I am hoping, and it seems to be a glitch, this will become resolved. It is a pain. And I do not appreciate it.
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