Progressives Chat will soon conclude covering outcomes for Election 2024.
I will wrap-up with such related blog topics next week.
In fact, next week will be the final week here in November 2024. (The timing will be good.)
This week, with “Highlights,” addresses the conspicuous shifts—nationwide and state to state—comparing Elections 2020 and 2024. What will also be addressed are some demographics as well as particular state counties critical to the overall outcome.
Much of this serves a purpose to further show how, in addition to election issues, we have this result.
‘ELECTIONS 2020–2024 SHIFTS’
In the United States presidential election of 2020, Joe Biden won the U.S. Popular Vote with 51.26%. Then-incumbent Donald Trump received 46.80%.
This was a 2020 Democratic pickup for U.S. President with a U.S. Popular Vote percentage-points margin of D+4.45. (From sources I have read, a series of numbers follow the decimal point. So it actually reads as +4.45xxxxx.)
Prior to last weekend a re-elected Trump, in a 2024 Republican pickup with his defeat of U.S. vice president Kamala Harris, won the U.S. Popular Vote by just under R+2.00. All votes are not yet counted. 98% are in. (This is according to Wikipedia.)
In order to win over the U.S. Popular Vote, a 2024 Trump needed a national shift of R+4.45 to draw Even and R+4.46 to win by at least R+0.01. Not only did Trump reach that necessary level, he did so in states combining for 300 electoral votes.
That is what the above map is about—recognition of the levels of shifts, state to state, from 2020 to 2024.
It turns out 24 of Trump’s 31 carried states, for 219 of his eventual 312 electoral votes, were won by +10 or more percentage-points in margins. All the commonly focused “Swing States”—Republican hold of North Carolina; Republican pickups of Arizona, Nevada, Tipping-Point State Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—carried within 5 percentage points vs. national margin. (This is a typical pattern for states which are Swing or Battleground or Bellwether as they not only back a winner but also reflect, to considerable extent, the national margin in a given presidential election.)
Every state had a general 2020-to-2024 shift in the direction of Republican and Trump. This marks the first time this happened—for the opposition party having regained the White House—since the 1976 Democratic pickup of the presidency for Jimmy Carter. He followed his party’s losing 1972 nominee George McGovern’s national loss by D–23.15; shifted D+25.21; and won over the U.S. Popular Vote by D+2.06. (Note: 1980 and 2000 Republican pickup winners Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush—and 1992 Democratic pickup winner Bill Clinton—experienced shifts in their parties’ direction in 49 states.)
Among the states Trump did not shift sufficiently (to be able to win over the U.S. Popular Vote): Washington was +0.73 percentage points redder. Delaware shifted toward Trump by +4.27.
Among the states shifted sufficiently for Trump to be able to win over the U.S. Popular Vote: It begins with New Hampshire. It became redder by +4.57. There are plenty more.
The most strongly shifted in the 2024 direction of Republican and Trump are two standout northeast states. New Jersey, the No. 11 most-populous state in the U.S., moved +10.29. The No. 4 most-populous state New York shifted with the most degree of red—by +11.52—as it moved from 2020-to-2024 Democratic margins of +23.09 to +11.57 percentage points.
While I have focused on percentage-points there are the raw-vote margins.
In 2020, Biden won the U.S. Popular Vote by +7,059,526. Effective November 16, 2024, at 10:00 a.m. ET, Trump won the U.S. Popular Vote by +2,706,826.
In order to shift that –7,059,526, to arrive at Even, Trump nationally shifted +6,357,718 just from the nation’s Top 10 most-populous states. (They are home to nearly 54% of the nation's citizens.) That raw-vote margins shift, for what was needed by Trump, is the equivalent of 90.05%.
The following chart shows just how these raw-vote margins shifted. (Again, this is not complete. But it isn’t difficult to understand. States with an * are 2024 Republican pickups.)
‘Highlights’: Demographics
🔴 Trendline (New): Trump made inroads with young males, yes, but also young females. In 2020, he lost the 18–29 vote nationwide by –24 percentage points. In 2024, his loss was –11 points. He moved from 36% to 43%. Source: Yes, Trump improved with young men. But he drew young women, too.
🔴 Trendline (Continuing): The votes from Blacks continue their trend. A 2008 Barack Obama, in a Democratic pickup for U.S. President, nationally carried the votes from people who are Black by +91 percentage points. (Outcome: Obama 95% vs. John McCain 4%.) Since 2012, a trend has been in progress moving away from Democrats and toward Republicans. The percentage-points margins have been +87 (in 2012); +81 (in 2016); +75 (in 2020). In 2024, this moved to +73.
🔵 Trendline (Developing): For the last, roughly, 15 years…Democrats have sold a part of their appeal as “Demographics Are Destiny,” boasting of a future with electoral fortune of dominance with non-White voters. However, in the last two elections—and this is irony—Democrats have improved, and we may have a trend, with Whites. A 2016 Hillary Clinton received 37%. A 2020 Biden received 41%. A 2024 Harris received 41%. Democratic margins have trended –20 to –17 to –16 percentage points.
🔴 Hispanics in Play: The vote from Hispanics have been assumed, by Democrats, to be safely for their party. In 2020, Joe Biden nationally won them by +33 points, with 65% vs. 32% for Trump. In 2024, that margin reduced to a Democratic hold of +6 as Harris received 52% vs. 46% for Trump. In fact, Harris lost and Trump won nationally Hispanic males with 55%.
🔵 A Realignment on Economics: In the past, households with annual incomes of $100,000 or more voted Republican. Here in 2024, that switched. They were won nationally by the Democrats and nominee Harris with 51%. This occurred while Trump nationally carried voters with annual household incomes between $30,000 to $99,999. Traditionally won by Democrats, they voted for Trump with 52%.
‘Highlights’: County Flips in Key States
In all six pickup states for Trump, there was at least one county which flipped from 2020 Democratic (Biden) to 2024 Republican (Trump). Numerous are bellwether counties to a given state. Two pivotal state bellwether counties from the Keystone State are, I estimate, bellwethers to the nation. (The best bellwether-to-the-nation county is Montana’s Blaine County with its most-populous city Chinook. Except in 1988, it has voted for all presidential winners since 1916 and including 2024.) While there are a lot more counties to list, even in states which are not bellwethers, the following stand out.
🔵 PENNSYLVANIA 🔴 Erie County (its most-populous city is Erie) and Northampton County (Bethlehem). The former has carried for statewide winners in all U.S. presidential elections, except in 1988, since 1948. (This amounts to 19 of 20 election cycles including 2024.) The latter county has carried for statewide winners in all, except 1948, since 1936. (This is 22 of 23 election cycles.)
🔵 MICHIGAN 🔴 Saginaw County (Saginaw) has voted for statewide winners—no exceptions—since 1992. Dating back to 1900, and through 2024, it matched with statewide winners in 27 of 32 elections. The county has carried roughly 85% of election cycles. Also flipped: Muskegon County (Muskegon). With exception in 2016, it has carried for all statewide winners since 1972. (So, 13 of 14 election cycles.)
🔵 WISCONSIN 🔴 Door County (Sturgeon Bay), profiled in a recent segment on CBS’s 60 Minutes, narrowly held for Harris. But Trump won a pickup of Sauk County (Baraboo). This county has also carried 9 in a row, since 1992, for presidential statewide winners. Since 1952, Sauk has carried for all statewide winners except in 1976 and 1988. (Good for 17 of 19 election cycles.)
🔵 NEVADA 🔴 Washoe County (Reno). Except in 1976 and 2016 (when it sided with popular-vote winner Hillary Clinton), the state has carried for all presidential winners since 1912. Washoe County has carried for all statewide winners, except in 1992 and 1996, since 1964. (This is 14 of 16 election cycles.)
🔵 ARIZONA 🔴 As I mentioned on Due Dissidence’s Election Night coverage: Since Arizona joined the Union and first voted in 1912, every presidential statewide winner—except 1996 Bill Clinton—carried Maricopa County (Phoenix), home to 60% the state’s population. (Reliable for 28 of 29 election cycles.)
🔵 GEORGIA 🔴 Three counties, which are not state bellwether counties (but may be trending in that direction), switched from 2020 Democratic to 2024 Republican. This occurred in Baldwin County (Milledgeville), Jefferson County (Louisville), and Washington County (Sandersville). Source: These three Georgia counties flipped blue to red in 2024.
‘Highlights’: Companion-to-Divergent States
🔵 New Mexico and Nevada 🔴 voted different from each other for only the second time in history. I identify them as Companion States. New Mexico joined the Union and first voted in 1912. Their prior disagreement was in 2000, a year with split outcomes: a Democratic hold for the U.S. Popular Vote (Al Gore, who carried New Mexico) and a Republican pickup for the Electoral College and U.S. President (George W. Bush, who flipped and carried Nevada). This split reminds me of another pair of Companion States. From 1944 to 2016, Iowa and Wisconsin voted the same in all presidential elections except in 1976 and 2004. Then in 2020, they disagreed. What explains this? Between Iowa and Wisconsin, the former realigned Republican (with 2016 pickup winner Trump) but the latter transformed into a leading bellwether state. Between New Mexico and Nevada, the former realigned Democratic (with 2008 pickup winner Barack Obama) but the latter maintained bellwether status. So, as it turns out nowadays, Iowa and Wisconsin will vote the same when a Republican wins. New Mexico and Nevada will vote the same when a Democrat wins.
