2026 Midterm Elections: One Year Out

One year from this blog’s topic date, [Tuesday,] November 3, 2026, will be the general election for the 2026 midterm elections in the United States. 

The 2026 midterms will consist of elections with all the nation’s 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives; Class No. 2 for the United States Senate; and 36 states for Governor.

Effective with the United States presidential election of 2024 were the following outcomes:

🇺🇸 2024 U.S. PRESIDENT 🇺🇸

🔴✔️ Donald Trump 49.71% (Pickup) | Electoral Votes: 312

🔵 Kamala Harris 48.24% | Electoral Votes: 226

⚫️ Margin: R+1.47

🇺🇸 2024 U.S. SENATE 🇺🇸

🔴✔️ Republican (Pickup) 53

🔵 Democratic 47

🇺🇸 2024 U.S. HOUSE 🇺🇸

🔴 ✔️ Republican (Hold) 220

🔵 Democratic 215

⚪️ U.S. Popular Vote: Republican 49.75% vs. Democratic 47.19%

⚫️ Margin: R+2.56

Post-Election 2024, and looking toward the midterm elections of 2026, we have the [Tuesday,] November 4, 2025 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia. They rank as the nation’s Nos. 11 and 12 most-populous states. They also have a track record: They are routinely seen as harbingers for what will play out in next-year midterm elections. Since 1977, but with exception of 2013, Virginia has elected White House opposition-party governors. (Eleven of the last 12 such election cycles.) Since 1989, but with exception of 2021, New Jersey has elected White House opposition-party governors. (Eight of the last nine such election cycles.) Democrats are favored to win both; it would be a pickup in Virginia.

While observing the above Election 2024 information, keep in mind this (as we wind down 2025 and get into 2026): Republican incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump’s job approval is in the 40s percentile range. Real Clear Politics, effective October 31, 2025, has him between 44 and 45 percent in approval. Gallup, established since 1937, and effective October 16, 2025, has Trump at 41 percent. 

What this means for the Republican-controlled U.S. House, because in midterm elections it historically flips before the U.S. Senate (if both don’t occur), is a likely 2026 Democratic pickup for control. This points to the U.S. House—while U.S. Senate is less likely—switching in January 2027 to the Democrats.

Real Clear Politics, effective October 29, 2025, reports a “Generic Congressional Vote”—which is the U.S. House—by +3.4 percentage points. What this would also indicate, compared to the outcome from 2024, is a national shift of nearly +6 percentage points in popular-vote margin for the 2026 Democrats. (Source: Real Clear Polling: ‘Generic Congressional Vote’.)

In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with Trump re-elected to a non-consecutive second term, the national shift (from 2020) was Republican +5.92. That yielded +6 pickup states for 2024 Trump. That was an average pickup of +1.01 states for every percentage point nationally shifted. That +1, with each percentage point nationally shifted, is common with party-switch outcomes for U.S. President.

In midterm elections, specifically with a party-switch outcome for control for the U.S. House, the average number of such net gains is typically closer to +4. So, when doing the math, the 2024-to-2026 Democrats could experience a national margin of +3.40 – (–2.56) = 5.96 nationally shifted. +5.96 x +4.00 = +23.84. So, this would suggest overall +23 or +24 net gains in U.S. House seats, added to their minority 215, wins over a new majority with 238 or 239 seats. 

270 to Win, effective November 2, 2026, lists eleven states with Republican-held U.S. House seats. Their numbers add up to a potential +18 seats. (That is…for the time being.) They are states which appear on the following map in light blue.

Mid-decade redistricting, started by Trump and fueled by mostly heavily-populous Republican-aligned states for U.S. President, are trying to manufacture net gains for their party with U.S. House seats.

The Democrats, not willing to stand by, are looking to counter with a similar strategy. 

The following map, with solid shading, shows where each party is, or would consider, targeting. (North Carolina is now a Sleeper Bellwether state. I have colored it in purple. but it is a target state by its empowered Republicans. For U.S. President, it has trended toward the middle in rank, for best-performed state, as it was the Republicans’s No. 26 and the Democrats’s No. 25 in 2024.)

I took a look at past midterm elections, dating back to the 1910s (the 17th Amendment), in which the U.S. House was a White House opposition-party switch, for the involved states. 

The U.S. has 50 states and 435 U.S. House seats. That is an average 8.7 seats per state. So, each state has an average 8 to 9 congressional districts. 

From that amount, figure 20 to 25 percent of that 8 to 9—which means +1.60 to +2.25—will be the average number of net gains from involved states which have been instrumental in flipping the U.S. House.

Citing eleven states, on the first map, and multiplying by 1.60 to 2.25 gauges an estimated overall net gain of +17.60 to +24.75 seats. This method also estimates a 2026 Democratic pickup for control of the U.S. House with a seats count in the 230s.

Take the second map and you have Republicans looking to mid-decade redistricting, perhaps, eight states. That they could manufacture between +12.80 to +18 seats. So, that would take the Democrats’s potential 232 to 239 seats down to, say, their 215 to 221 seats. So, the Democrats figure they have to counter. On that same map are eight states in which they can manufacture those +12.80 to +18 seats.

Lunacy?

Of course.

It can also be desperation from the incumbent U.S. president.

Likewise the incumbent party with both houses of Congress.

The job approval for Trump is also followed by an even lower approval for the Congress which is, of course, under control by the Republicans. Gallup reported this on October 22, 2025. (Source: ‘Congress' Job Rating Sinks to 15%; Trump's Steady at 41%’.)

At this point, I am confident the 2026 Democrats will win majority pickup for control for the United States House of Representatives. But, I do not sense it—at least not yet—with the United States Senate. Heading into the midterm elections, the Democrats have a minority 47 seats. 

Effective this blog date: I think the 2026 U.S. Senate Democrats would win pickups of no more than +2 seats. They would occur in North Carolina and Maine. 

This would still keep the Democrats in the minority with 49 states. Just in case they do flip the U.S. Senate, with the U.S. House, all states appearing in yellow, on the below map, should be considered. 

The 2026 Democrats need to win over four of the seven. 

After reaching 49 seats, I consider their probable No. 50 as Alaska and, for the Tipping-Point state and seat, No. 51 as Texas. 

We would need to move past the year 2025, and go deeply into 2026, to get a better sense whether the Democrats will have stronger potential to win a likewise pickup for control of the U.S. Senate.