Tuesday, March 3, 2026 will give us Uniter States Senate primaries in Texas.
The primary on the Republican side is whether unpopular incumbent John Cornyn, first elected in 2002, will pull through or become unseated, via this primary, by the state’s attorney general, Ken Paxton. A third person is also in the hunt: congressman Wesley Hunt.
The primary on the Democratic side is between congresswoman Jasmine Crockett and state representative James Talarico. (They are pictured above as the two debated in January 2026.)
One may think, “What does it matter—the Republican wins.”
There are people who assume Texas is Safe Republican. Not anymore.
Since the 2000s, Texas has trended away from the GOP: It was party’s No. 10 best state for U.S. President in 2000 and 2004; No. 15 in 2008 and 2012; No. 22 in 2016; No. 23 in 2020. It moved up for the Republicans to No. 20 in 2024. From 2000 to 2020, a period of 20 years and 6 election cycles, the state trended favorably for the Democrats to rank as their Nos. 41 to 36 to 29 to 28 best state. (No. 31 in 2024.) The average number of states carried by United States presidential winners, since 1992, has been 29. That is…30 foe winning Republicans and 28 for winning Democrats.
Can the Democrats, under the circumstances that they are prevailing party in a given election cycle, carry Texas?
Yes.
It will be difficult. Democrats have not won a statewide race in Texas since 1994.
Given the abysmal polling numbers for Republican-incumbent United States president Donald Trump, we will find out if this may materialize here in 2026.
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