I am predicting, with next Tuesday’s [August 4, 2026] primaries in my home state, the 2026 Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate from Michgan will be won by Abdul El–Sayed.
On [Monday,] July 27, 2026, a final primary debate was held between El–Sayed and Haley Stevens.
Over the last several days, and given Mallory McMorrow dropped out July 5 (a week after early-voter ballots were mailed), and that El–Sayed has been leading nearly every poll since May, it looks like last-minute voters are rallying for El–Sayed.
I have seen polls suggesting double-digit percentage-points margins—El–Sayed over Stevens—such as +11, +14, +15, +16, and +17.
What I do not know, and will find out afterward, are the total votes cast.
I suspect there will be, expressed in hundreds of thousands, about 600,000 votes cast.
I sense El–Sayed will win statewide by a raw-votes margin of roughly +100,000 … but it may end up closer to +125,000. What would be extraordinary is, say, +150,000.
I decided to look at past primary outcomes, for U.S. Senate, in Michigan.
This was with a focus on those who won first-term elections.
I traced back to the 1910s, the decade of the 17th Amendment (direct elections of U.S. senators by states’s voters), and found something interesting.
Two such primaries, for an eventual first-term general-election winner, were won by single-digit percentage-points margins.
In 1936, re-election to a second term for Democratic incumbent U.S. President Franklin Roosevelt (he carried 46 of 48 states), a switch occurred in Michgan’s U.S. Senate election from Republican to Democratic for Prentiss M. Brown. In the primary, Brown won a multi-person race with 36.32% vs. 34.16% for top runner-up Louis B. Ward. Margin: Brown +2.16 percentage points.
The 1994 United States midterm elections was a Republican wave—on the watch of Democratic incumbent U.S. president Bill Clinton—in which both houses of Congress switched to the Republicans. Michigan’s U.S. Senate election was a Republican pickup for Spencer Abraham. In the primary, Abraham won with 51.95% vs. 48.02% for Ronna Romney (ex-sister-in-law to Mitt). Margin: Abraham +3.93 percentage points.
For those first-term election winners who won their primaries by double digits, the lowest was Donald Riegle Jr., who died April 24, 2026 at age 88, back in 1976. Riegle received 44.31%, in a multi-person race, vs. 28.34% for top runner-up Richard H. Austin. Margin: Riegle +15.97 percentage points.
A double-digit, percentage-points margin win would fall in line with the majority of past outcomes, in this 2026 Democratic primary for U.S. Senate.
I am not worried about nailing down the numbers. What I hope for is the rock-solid victory. I especially want Metro Detroit tri-county areas to carry. They are home to nearly 1 of every 3 people who live in Michigan. So, I hope Wayne, Oakland, and Macomb counties will carry for El–Sayed.
May it be a sweepingly sweet victory for Abdul El–Sayed.
I will leave this with a video clip, below, from Due Dissidence. It was Tuesday, June 23, 2026. New York held its primaries. I was a guest on the livestream. Just after those high-profile congressional primaries were called, I was asked to comment. I offered a particular insight which relates to this blog topic.
Note: The next blog topic will publish on my birthday, Sunday, August 16, 2026.
