The 2018 U.S. House Midterm Elections, One Month Later

The 2018 midterm elections for U.S. House: 

Light shades are the net gains. 

Republicans won three pickups. 

Democrats won either forty-three or forty-four pickups. 

Democrats, having flipped the House, won an overall net gain of at least +40.

After Election Day, in presidential and midterm election cycles, it can take roughly a month for a precious few races to get called. Sometimes, they are ones for U.S. House. This turned out to be the case during the week which followed Thanksgiving. There was a false call for California #21 in favor of Republican incumbent David Valadao. But, there was still outstanding vote. Once it was actually done, the winner was Democratic challenger T.J. Cox. As of December 8, 2018, the race for North Carolina #09—which was retracted by the Associated Press (AP retracts call in North Carolina Congress race and Democrat officially withdraws concession in North Carolina race amid election fraud investigation)—is still outstanding. (On the above map, for the U.S. House elections results, that congressional district appears in a neutral color.)

The 2018 Democrats, who entered the [Election Day | November 6, 2018] midterm elections with 195 in the U.S. House, flipped control of the lower chamber with not only their needed +23 but with at least +40 net gains in seats.

The Democratic Party will enter the next Congress, in January 2019, with a new majority of at least 235 to the 199 or 200 seats for the Republicans. And, if you would like, you can see where the 2018 Democrats achieved this on the above map. (This manifest from 21 states. It would be 22 if that outstanding race flips Democratic in North Carolina. Seven of the net gains came from California.  You can look at the map more closely on a tablet or a smartphone.)



EFFECTIVE 12.10.2018 @ 12:00 a.m. ET: Wikipedia [ 2018 United States House of Representatives — Elections ] has it the 2018 Democrats won the U.S. Popular Vote, for the U.S. House, by +8.57 percentage points. It was 53.41 percent for the Democrats; 44.84 percent for the Republicans. (My elections prediction was the 2018 Democrats—while winning a majority pickup of the U.S. House—would end up winning the U.S. Popular Vote by +8.50 and a net gain of +35 seats. Link: Election Predictions.)

This is not to say, necessarily, these are the final numbers. (Last week, Dave Wasserman kept updating these on his Twitter page. And, of course, so has Wikipedia. But, I wanted to get this completed here while we are still in 2018. So, a cut-off is necessary.)

Going by that latest, what this means is the 2016-to-2018 national shift was Democratic +9.65. (The 2016 Republicans won the U.S. Popular Vote, for the U.S. House, by +1.08. It was Republican 49.11 percent; Democratic 48.03 percent.) 

With a net gain of +40 seats, the 2018 Democrats won an average of +4.15 seats with each percentage point nationally shifted in their direction. 

With a net gain of +41 seats, the 2018 Democrats won an average of +4.24 seats with each percentage point nationally shifted in their direction. 

From the previous midterm elections—in which the U.S. House flipped to the White House opposition party (which occurred in 1946, 1954, 1994, 2006, and 2010)—the historical average over those five cycles was +3.64 net gains in seats with each nationally shifted percentage point. (This is keeping in mind the U.S. Popular Vote, for U.S. House, was not recorded before the 1940s.)

If the 2018 Democrats won +40 net gains in seats, they raised that historical average to +3.72 net gains in seats over what are now six applicable midterm cycles (of the U.S. House having flipped to the White House opposition party).

If the 2018 Democrats won +41 net gains in seats, they raised that historical average to +3.74 net gains in seats over what are now six applicable midterm cycles (of the U.S. House having flipped to the White House opposition party).

While the 2018 midterm election period was still in progress, Five Thirty Eight’s Nate Silver had it figured the 2018 Democrats needed to win the popular vote by +5.5 in order to reach the +23 seats needed to flip the House. I went with the whole number of +6. 

It turns out the 2018 Democrats performed higher than historical average and were able to reach their necessary +23 by winning the U.S. Popular Vote by +4.47 percentage points (if their net gain is +40) or +4.35 percentage points (if their net gain is +41).

(Wikipedia has it Minnesota #07 was the tipping point seat with the 2018 Democrats having flipped the U.S House. Its margin was +4.26.)

In summary (and electorally): The 2018 midterm election voters were absolutely determined to flip the U.S. House from Republican to Democratic; the voters were able to deliver the House to the Democrats with a popular-vote margin of +4.47 (or, better, +4.35) percentage points; and the voters also nearly doubled that popular-vote margin and, by doing so, almost doubled the Democrats’ necessary net gains in seats to make this result decisive. (Yes, it was a wave election. For the United States House of Representatives.)

Now, that is just one part of electoral politics. Following such a thing can be like keeping track of a sport. It can be fun. What comes after that is something else. Ralph Nader has said it before: After the Democrats have won a given election cycle, he asks, “What did you win?” Meaning, for the voters who were strongly for the Democrats—“What did you win?” That is the question especially all self-identified Democratic voters should be asking themselves. I don’t sense they do. With these 2018 midterm election results, I don’t think many of them will. Here, for one’s consideration, is an example of what the 2018 [U.S. House] Democratic voters have won: