Election Predictions

I chose this thread’s date to post my predictions for next Tuesday’s [Nov. 6, 2018] midterm elections. 

I will not post a thread on Monday [Nov. 5]. That is because I will have one, simply titled “Election Day,” on Tuesday. One can use it if, for example, he feels like posting comments during Election Night. I figure this will allow an opportunity for readers to give up-to-date comments as Election Night unfolds. The “Election Day” thread will be posted at 06:00 a.m. ET. 

This blog topic is about my “Election Predictions.” 

Readers of Progressives Chat are also welcome to offer their predictions. 

In the meantime, I summarize—for U.S. House, U.S. Senate, and U.S. Governors—why I am making my predictions. For any questions, on some of the details, one can refer to these previous, 2018 blog topics: Democrats Magic Number +7 ; Coming Up: U.S. House ; Coming Up: U.S. Senate ; and  Coming Up: U.S. Governors .

U.S. HOUSE

 • 2018 Prediction: Democratic pickup for a new majority
 • U.S. Popular Vote Target Margin (whole number; adjusted after prior blog entry): Democratic +6
 • Predicted Margin: Democratic +8.50
 • 2016 U.S. Popular Vote Margin: Republican +1.08
 • Shifted Margin from 2016: Democratic +9.58
 • Historical Avg.—Since 1946—Gained Seats, Per Percentage Point Nationally Shifted (adjusted after a previous error of +3.59): +3.64
 • 2018 Estimated Net Seat Gains: Democratic +35
 • Effective January 2019: Democrats, with 230 seats
 • Map: An estimate range between 16 to 25 individual states will be involved. Multiply them by either 1.5 or by 2—and it is one more example why the 2018 Democrats are in position to flip the U.S. House. (Due to limited effectiveness with its appearance, no actual map will be presented here.)

U.S. SENATE

 • 2018 Prediction: Republican hold [retained] for majority
 • U.S. Popular Vote Target Margin: Democratic +14
 • Predicted Margin: Democratic +13
 • 2012 U.S. Popular Vote Margin: Democratic +11.82
 • Shifted Margin from 2012: Democratic +1
 • 2018 Estimated Net Set Gains: Democratic +1
 • Effective January 2019: A 50–50 tie; Republican U.S. Vice President Mike Pence will be the tie-breaker vote (when necessary)
 • Map: Solid shades are Republican or Democratic holds; those in light shades are pickups

U.S. GOVERNORS

 • 2018 Prediction: Democratic pickup for a new majority
 • U.S. Popular Vote Target Margin: Democratic +4
 • Predicted Margin: Democratic +4.50
 • 2014 U.S. Popular Vote Margin: Republican +4.09
 • Shifted Margin from 2014: Democratic +8.59
 • Historical Avg. (Since 1990s) Gained Seats, Per Percentage Point Nationally Shifted: +1.51 (I’m predicting an estimated +1.33)
 • Effective January 2019: Democrats, with 27 governorships
 • Map: Two maps will be presented. The first map, which includes tossups, shows my estimate that Democrats, entering 2018 with 16 governorships, will win a net gain of at least +9 to reach 25. But, the following map shows no tossups—and I go ahead and make my prediction

Final Notes

 • The hour of 09:00 p.m. ET: This is the earliest hour a projection can be made for the 2018 Democrats, should they succeed in flipping the U.S. House. (And this would be to the tune of +30 or more net gains in seats; approximately up to ten will be coming from the 10:00 p.m. ET closing in Iowa and several more from the 11:00 p.m. ET hour closings in California and Washington.)
 • The hours of 11:00 p.m. ET or afterward: This is when I anticipate the majorities for the levels of U.S. Senate and U.S. Governors will be projected.