Can Bernie Sanders Win Texas?

Last week, Progressives Chat reader The_Fixer posted the following video by Graham Elwood:

Here is the the poll: New Poll Shows Bernie Sanders Beating Trump in Texas by Nearly 5 Points.


To answer the blog title’s question: It would depend on the outcomes.

First thing necessary is to win the 2020 Democratic nomination for president of the United States.

If that happens, next is that the presidency would have to flip from Republican to Democratic.

Since I perceive only Bernie Sanders and Tulsi Gabbard as the two capable 2020 Democratic candidates, that certainly makes sense.

Let’s suppose that happens.

Specifically for Bernie Sanders.

Following that would be this question: By how much would Bernie Sanders need to win the U.S. Popular Vote to be able to flip and carry the state of Texas?

The answer lies ahead in the following: In 2016, the U.S. Popular Vote margin was –2.09 for Republican pickup winner Donald Trump. Had Trump won the U.S. Popular Vote, his margin would have been, my estimate, between +2.15 to +2.64. Historical average, since at least 1932, is a net gain of +1 to +1.5 (more commonly closer to +1) state with each percentage point nationally shifted in the direction of a pickup winning Republican or Democrat. So, in 2020, the following are an estimate for a pickup winning Democrat to be able to go so far as to flip and carry Texas. And when beginning to read it, please keep in mind that 2016 losing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton carried 20 states, plus District of Columbia, and an original 232 electoral votes.

MICHIGAN
• 2016 Result: Republican (pickup) +0.22 | Democratic –0.22
• 2016 Democratic Party’s Ranked State: No. 21
• 2020 Democratic Party’s Estimated Best State: No. 21
• 2020 Democrats’ Required U.S. Popular Vote Margin: +3
• 2020 Cumulative Electoral Vote: 248

PENNSYLVANIA
• 2016 Result: Republican (pickup) +0.72 | Democratic –0.72
• 2016 Democratic Party’s Ranked State: No. 22
• 2020 Democratic Party’s Estimated Best State: No. 22
• 2020 Democrats’ Required U.S. Popular Vote Margin: +3
• 2020 Cumulative Electoral Vote: 268

WISCONSIN
• 2016 Result: Republican (pickup) +0.76 | Democratic –0.76
• 2016 Democratic Party’s Ranked State (tipping point state): No. 23
• 2020 Democratic Party’s Estimated Best State (tipping point state): No. 23
• 2020 Democrats’ Required U.S. Popular Vote Margin: +4
• 2020 Cumulative Electoral Vote: 278

FLORIDA
• 2016 Result: Republican (pickup) +1.19 | Democratic –1.19
• 2016 Democratic Party’s Ranked State: No. 24
• 2020 Democratic Party’s Estimated Best State: No. 24
• 2020 Democrats’ Required U.S. Popular Vote Margin: +4
• 2020 Cumulative Electoral Vote: 307

[NEBRASKA #02]
• 2016 Result: Republican +2.23 | Democratic –2.23
• 2016 Democratic Party’s Ranked State: —
• 2020 Democratic Party’s Estimated Best State: —
• 2020 Democrats’ Required U.S. Popular Vote Margin: +4
• 2020 Cumulative Electoral Vote: 308

ARIZONA
• 2016 Result: Republican +3.50 | Democratic –3.50
• 2016 Democratic Party’s Ranked State: No. 25
• 2020 Democratic Party’s Estimated Best State: No. 25
• 2020 Democrats’ Required U.S. Popular Vote Margin: +4
• 2020 Cumulative Electoral Vote: 319

NORTH CAROLINA
• 2016 Result: Republican +3.66 | Democratic –3.66
• 2016 Democratic Party’s Ranked State: No. 26
• 2020 Democratic Party’s Estimated Best State: No. 26
• 2020 Democrats’ Required U.S. Popular Vote Margin: +4
• 2020 Cumulative Electoral Vote: 334

GEORGIA
• 2016 Result: Republican +5.10 | Democratic –5.10
• 2016 Democratic Party’s Ranked State: No. 27
• 2020 Democratic Party’s Estimated Best State: No. 27
• 2020 Democrats’ Required U.S. Popular Vote Margin: +5
• 2020 Cumulative Electoral Vote: 350

IOWA
• 2016 Result: Republican (pickup) +9.41 | Democratic –9.41
• 2016 Democratic Party’s Ranked State: No. 30
• 2020 Democratic Party’s Estimated Best State: No. 28
• 2020 Democrats’ Required U.S. Popular Vote Margin: +6
• 2020 Cumulative Electoral Vote: 356

[MAINE #02]
• 2016 Result: Republican (pickup) +10.28 | Democratic –10.28
• 2016 Democratic Party’s Ranked State: —
• 2020 Democratic Party’s Estimated Best State: —
• 2020 Democrats’ Required U.S. Popular Vote Margin: +6
• 2020 Cumulative Electoral Vote: 357

TEXAS
• 2016 Result: Republican +8.98 | Democratic –8.98
• 2016 Democratic Party’s Ranked State: No. 29
• 2020 Democratic Party’s Estimated Best State: No. 29
• 2020 Democrats’ Required U.S. Popular Vote Margin: +7
• 2020 Cumulative Electoral Vote: 395

OHIO
• 2016 Result: Republican (pickup) +8.07 | Democratic –8.07
• 2016 Democratic Party’s Ranked State: No. 28
• 2020 Democratic Party’s Estimated Best State: No. 30
• 2020 Democrats’ Required U.S. Popular Vote Margin: +8
• 2020 Cumulative Electoral Vote: 413

Why are Wisconsin through North Carolina listed as +4?

In 2016, Hillary Clinton carried California with 150 percent her raw-vote margin in the U.S. Popular Vote. She gained about 1 million votes, above 2012 re-elected Democratic incumbent Barack Obama, in an election in which Democrats had the White House and it flipped Republican. (It was an additional +7 percentage points. The opposite should have happened.) A presidential winner does not carry his party’s No. 1-ranked populous state with 100 percent or more his national margin. Barack Obama, in 2012, carried California with about 60 percent his national margin. 2004 re-elected Republican incumbent George W. Bush carried his home state Texas with approximately 55 percent his national margin.

The adjustment, from Wisconsin through North Carolina, keeps in mind a Republican shift in California to stabilize the level of Democratic support vs. the nation. It usually performs about 15 to 20 percent more Democratic vs. the nation. For Hillary Clinton, it was 32 points above. That is abnormal. In an election won by the Democrats, I can imagine California in excess of +20 to +25; but, not +30 or more.

This also keep in mind that there have been only three United States presidential elections—in 1824, 1960, and 1976—in which the winner carried less than half the nation’s participating states. So, I would estimate we will continue to see a majority count of states get carried by presidential winners. That, if the Democrats flip the presidency in 2020 (rather than wait for 2026), that pickup winner will carry at least 26 states. (It is also partly why my previous blog topic stated the needed popular-vote margin to be reached is +4.)

There is another pattern.

To estimate a states count, for a winning Republican or Democrat, figure +22 for a Democrat and +28 for a Republican. Since the 1990s, the range of carried states has been 26 (for Barack Obama in 2012) and 32 (for Bill Clinton in 1992). The average has been 29. If the U.S. Popular Vote has been won by +5 percentage points, a Democrat would carry 27 states and a Republican would carry 33 states. The Democrats are averaging 12 electoral votes per carried state. The Republicans are averaging 9 electoral votes per carried state. (Trump was at 10. But, Clinton and Obama hit 12 twice while Clinton, in 1992, was 11 and, in 1996, was 12. Obama, in 2008, averaged 13. The structural advantage is with the Democrats for higher electoral-vote scores; the states’ count advantage is with the Republicans.) A formula: a Democrat can carry 22 states, with average of 12 electoral votes, and garnered 264 but get to 270 with a remainder of 6 to reach 270; a Republican can carry 28 states, with average of 9 electoral votes, and garner 252 with a remainder of 18 to reach 270. (If one wants to see 40 states get carried, which hasn’t happened since the 1980s, Democrats have to win the U.S. Popular Vote by +18 while Republicans need +12. For the Democrats: 58 to 40 percent. For the Republicans: 55 to 43 percent.)

Had 2000 and 2016 Republican pickup winners George W. Bush and Donald Trump won the U.S. Popular Vote, their whole-number margins would have been +2. They both carried 30 states. So, for the math: 28 + 2 percentage-points margin = 30 carried states. (Bush, with re-election in 2004, won the U.S. Popular Vote by +2.46 percentage points and carried 31 states.)

With exception of 1992 Bill Clinton (with a margin of +5.56 and carriage of 32 states and District of Columbia), this formula has applied, although not perfectly, to the Democrats since the 1960s.
• 1960 John Kennedy: 22 + 0.16 percentage-points margin = 22 carried states
• 1964 Lyndon Johnson: 22 + 22.58 percentage-points margin = 44 carried states
• 1976 Jimmy Carter: 22 + 2.06 percentage-points margin = 24 carried states (Carter won 23)
• 1996 Bill Clinton: 22 + 8.52 percentage-points margin = 30 carried states (Clinton won 31)
• 2008 Barack Obama: 22 + 7.26 percentage-points margin = 29 carried states (Obama won 28 but also flipped and carried Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District—one-third that state’s vote)
• 2012 Barack Obama: 22 + 3.86 percentage-points margin = 25 carried states (Obama won 26)

If we see this pattern continues, and Bernie Sanders ends up the 2020 Democratic nominee for president of the United States, and he unseats Republican incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump, in order to flip and carry Texas, his margin in the U.S. Popular Vote would need to reach: +7.

To flip and carry the state of Texas, a 2020 Bernie Sanders would have to go from a 2016 Hillary Clinton’s 20 carried states to 29.

According to that video by Graham Elwood, Bernie Sanders polls at +5 in Texas. Well, if that were to actually happen, Sanders would win the U.S. Popular Vote by, say, +11—and that would also mean he would carry 32 or 33 states.

Since this thread’s title includes the word “Can,” this answers how it is mathematically possible for Bernie Sanders to “Win Texas.”