For at least a couple of months, there have been plenty of polls for both the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries and the general election.
When reporting percentage-points margins, especially for the general election, it does not good to look at numbers without picturing what it means for the nation—and that is getting at the electoral map.
Dating back to at least 1932, when the White House switched parties, the pickup winning Republican or Democrat tended to win an average net gain of +1 to +1.5 (usually closer to +1) states with each percentage point nationally shifted in his direction.
The last two Republican pickup winners, 2000 George W. Bush and 2016 Donald Trump, did not win likewise pickups of the U.S. Popular Vote.
Bush entered 2000 with 1996 losing Republican nominee Bob Dole’s popular-vote margin of –8.51 percentage points and 19 states (for 159 electoral votes). Bush flipped +11 states (combining for +112 electoral votes) to end up with 30 states (for 271 electoral votes). Had Bush won the U.S. Popular Vote, I estimate his margin would have been near +2.50 percentage points. (Bush’s margin was –0.51.)
Trump entered 2016 with 2012 losing Republican nominee Mitt Romney’s popular-vote margin of –3.86 percentage points and 24 states (for 206 electoral votes). Trump flipped +6 states and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District (which is half that state’s vote; combining for +100 electoral votes) to end up with 30 states (for an original 306 electoral votes). Had Trump won the U.S. Popular Vote, I estimate his margin would have been between +2.15 to +2.64. (Trump’s margin was –2.09.)
In between Bush and Trump was 2008 Democratic pickup winner Barack Obama. He entered 2008 with 2004 losing Democratic nominee John Kerry’s popular-vote margin of –2.46 and 19 states and District of Columbia (for a mathematical 252 electoral votes). Obama flipped +9 states and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District (which is one-third that state’s vote; combining for +113 electoral votes). Obama prevailed on both counts—U.S. Popular Vote and Electoral College—with 28 states, Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, District of Columbia, and 365 electoral votes. And his popular-vote margin went from Kerry’s –2.46 to +7.26, a national 2004-to-2008 shift of +9.72. Since he flipped +9 states, and Nebraska #02, that aligned with the average net gain of +1 state for each percentage point nationally shifted.
I am anticipating this historical pattern will play out the next time the presidency flips from the party which currently has the White House, the Republican Party, to the opposition party, the Democratic Party.
Just in case it happens in 2020 (rather than waiting for 2024), I adjust the 2016 popular-vote margin to work from not Hillary Clinton’s +2.09 but to –2.15 to –2.64.
I figure the 2020 Democrats, if they flip the presidency, and unseat Republican incumbent Donald Trump, will win the U.S. Popular Vote by at least +4 percentage points.
Supporting this estimate is the recent piece: How Trump could lose by 5 million votes and still win in 2020. David Wasserman writes, “The ultimate nightmare scenario for [2020] Democrats might look something like this: [Donald] Trump loses the [U.S Popular Vote] by more than 5 million [raw votes], and the Democratic nominee converts Michigan and Pennsylvania back to blue. But Trump wins re-election by two [electoral votes] by barely hanging onto Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District—one of the whitest and least college-educated district in the country.”
In the United States presidential election of 2016, approximately 137 million votes were cast for U.S. president.
Hillary Clinton won a Democratic hold of the U.S. Popular Vote with a raw-vote margin of +2,868,518 and a percentage-points margin of +2.09.
Due to the fact that not every United States presidential election has the same number of votes—or millions of votes—cast for U.S. president, I prefer to focus most often on the percentage-points margins. This is especially the case with one comparable election cycle followed by the next. It is important to track shifts, from the prior cycle, because it helps to determine outcomes which deliver party switches.
Over the last three presidential cycles—2008, 2012, and 2016—there were 131 million, 128 million, and 137 million votes cast for U.S. president. If 2020 motivates more individual votes to vote for U.S. president, or part of it may be a rise in eligible voters, perhaps the estimate can be 140 million votes.
Losing the U.S. Popular Vote by –5 million votes, in 2020, with 140 million votes cast, will be losing by around –3.50 percentage points. In 2016, Trump finished with –2.09. So, this is suggesting a 2016-to-2020 Republican underperformance of around –1.50 as Trump still manages to win a second term.
Conclusion: The 2020 Democrats’ target margin, for winning the U.S. Popular Vote, and for being enough to win in the Electoral College, is +4.
In the United States presidential election of 2016, approximately 137 million votes were cast for U.S. president.
Hillary Clinton won a Democratic hold of the U.S. Popular Vote with a raw-vote margin of +2,868,518 and a percentage-points margin of +2.09.
Due to the fact that not every United States presidential election has the same number of votes—or millions of votes—cast for U.S. president, I prefer to focus most often on the percentage-points margins. This is especially the case with one comparable election cycle followed by the next. It is important to track shifts, from the prior cycle, because it helps to determine outcomes which deliver party switches.
Over the last three presidential cycles—2008, 2012, and 2016—there were 131 million, 128 million, and 137 million votes cast for U.S. president. If 2020 motivates more individual votes to vote for U.S. president, or part of it may be a rise in eligible voters, perhaps the estimate can be 140 million votes.
Losing the U.S. Popular Vote by –5 million votes, in 2020, with 140 million votes cast, will be losing by around –3.50 percentage points. In 2016, Trump finished with –2.09. So, this is suggesting a 2016-to-2020 Republican underperformance of around –1.50 as Trump still manages to win a second term.
Conclusion: The 2020 Democrats’ target margin, for winning the U.S. Popular Vote, and for being enough to win in the Electoral College, is +4.
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