With this blog topic published Monday, August 31, 2020, one day before the beginning of September, we are at a point that is good enough to say we are two months from the general election that is scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020.
I perceive no change in the status of the race of which I had previously written and published. Oh, sure—there are some people saying the race is tightening. But, I have looked at the polls from those indicating it is “tightening” and they report national margins that are Democratic +4 or +5.
The problem: Even though I haven’t lately monitored state-to-state polls, in recent times the indication is that Republican incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump is underperforming possibly everywhere. In presidential elections which switch the White House party, there are typically more than 40 states which shift away from the incumbent and toward to the opposition party. (1980 Republican pickup winner Ronald Reagan, 1992 Democratic pickup winner Bill Clinton, and 2000 Republican pickup winner George W. Bush each saw 49 states shifted their prior presidential-election margins in their direction.) In Trump’s case, all 50 states may shift their 2016-to-2020 margins away from him and toward Democratic nominee Joe Biden. (That actually happened with 1976 Democratic pickup winner Jimmy Carter.)
In the Top 10 populous states, a 2016 Donald Trump carried seven. Three were 2016 Republican holds. Four were 2016 Republican pickups. In the 2012-to-2016 Republican states—Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina—he carried them by a collective +1.25 million or more raw votes. And he may lose them all. (Texas is his best potential narrow hold here in 2020.) In the 2012-to-2016 Democratic-to-Republican pickups—Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan—he carried them by a collective 600,000 or more raw votes. He may lose them all. (Ohio is his best potential narrow hold here in 2020.) These are 7 of the 30 states he carried. 54 percent of the nation’s people live in a state which ranks among the Top 10. (This includes me.) For those living in a state with ranks among the Top 20—New Jersey, Virginia, Washington, Arizona, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Indiana, Missouri, Maryland, and Wisconsin—they comprise 75 percent of the nation’s residents. And Trump—who in 2016 also carried Arizona, Tennessee, Indiana, Missouri, and a Republican pickup of Wisconsin (that year’s tipping-point state)—he is underperforming in each of them as well, and is likely to lose Arizona and Wisconsin. So, a 2016 Trump carried 12 of the nation’s Top 20 populous states. Here in 2020, polling for Trump shows him underperforming in all of them. (Note: It has been said, many times, that no Republican has won the presidency without carrying Ohio. Well, for states 100 years or more in age—and this is also applicable to North Dakota—this is also true with Arizona.)
My point is that these numbers—these shifts—tend to add up faster than some people realize. In 2016, Donald Trump’s Republican pickup of the presidency did not include the U.S. Popular Vote. His raw-vote margin was –2.8 million. His percentage-points margin was –2.09. So, for 2016 losing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, her margins were +2.8 million (raw votes) and +2.09 (percentage points). It would not be surprising, with a 2020 Democratic pickup of the presidency, from 140 million votes cast (up from the 138 million in 2016), to see the raw-vote margin hit +10 million with a percentage-points margin in the high single-digits (perhaps even +10).
Election 2020 is shaping up to become a Democratic wave—pickups for U.S. President and majority-control of the U.S. Senate, and a party hold for U.S. House—and it is a matter of estimating (some would prefer to use the word guessing) the percentage-points margin. They help to determine states count. I think 2020 Democratic nominee Joe Biden is liable to win with a margin between +8 to +10. (Meaning, I would estimate Donald Trump gets 44 or 45 percent. Joe Biden would receive 53 or 54 percent. In 2016, Trump received 45.93 to the 48.02 percent for Hillary Clinton.) Given this period’s electoral structure, and that since 1960 (except 1992 Bill Clinton) prevailing Democrats tend to carry +21 or +22 states in excess of their percentage-points margin in the U.S. Popular Vote, this would indicate carriage of 29 to 32 states. (In 2016, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton carried 20 states.) Very possibly this could result in carriage of all of the nation’s Top 10 populous states. (Which is rare.) And this would be in line with an ongoing pattern since 1992. That presidential winners have averaged 29 carried states. The range has been 26 to 32 carried states.
Republican incumbent Donald Trump is in position to become the eleventh unseated president in United States history, with what would become a Democratic pickup of the presidency for Joe Biden, due to COVID–19. This pandemic crisis, particularly here in the United States, is the focus of the people. The voting electorate. COVID–19 will make election of Biden happen. And for those who are wanting Trump out, COVID–19 is what will make that happen.
I am not supportive of Joe Biden. I will not vote for him. But, I am one who likes to be aware, for as much as I can ask myself to be, and no matter how I may think and/or feel, of what is likely to happen.
In an early-August 2020 report in New York Times, Allan Licthman, a professor known for being accurate since the 1980s and for his book The Keys to the White House, went ahead and predicted Joe Biden will unseat Donald Trump. (Warning: There is a paywall.)
He Predicted Trump’s Win in 2016. Now He’s Ready to Call 2020.
There is something more I want to mention.
At another discussion site, a person asked, What can Trump do to prevent losing? I wrote, “Medicare for All.” (I wanted to make my answer short and direct.) Due to the fact that this was not at a site exclusively for people of one particular political ideology, my suggestion received no response. But, there was one person who later wrote and posted that what would help Trump is if he were to tweet less on Twitter.
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In the meantime, I want to share another excellent piece by Black Agenda Report’s Glen Ford. It was published last Thursday, August 27, 2020. I think Progressives Chat readers may appreciate it.
Biden Offers Nothing But More War, Austerity and White Supremacy – Without Trump
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Note to Readers: Given the fact that Progressives Chat blog topic threads will now run a full week, we do have a holiday weekend coming up. Labor Day Weekend. May it be a safe and pleasant one for us all.
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