For the first time since 1960, the state of Ohio did not vote with the winner of the recent 2020 United States presidential election.
I was born in 1971.
During my lifetime, prior to 2020, the only state carried by all presidential winners in that period was Ohio.
Ohio voted with the winners of Elections 1964 to 2016.
This was a period of 52 years and 14 consecutive cycles.
The 2016 result had many sensing Ohio was on the verge of ending its bellwether status. It was a Republican pickup for Donald Trump by +8.07 percentage points while he lost the U.S. Popular Vote by –2.09. So, it was 10.16 points more Republican than the nation. But, had Trump won the U.S. Popular Vote, I estimate his margin would have between +2.15 to +2.64, so that adjustment made Ohio more like +5.43 to +5.92 points more Republican.
The 2020 results make it more clear. The margin in Ohio was similar—over +8 points. But, with a Democratic pickup of the presidency to Joe Biden with a national margin of +3 or +4, Ohio voted +11 or +12 points more Republican than the nation.
Since 1968, every time the White House switched parties, a Republican or a Democratic pickup winner won over to his party at least one state which has since not voted for the party which lost it.
Here were those applicable:
• 1968 Republican pickup winner Richard Nixon: *Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska [statewide], North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming. (Alaska first voted in 1960. It carried Democratic just once—specifically for 1964 Lyndon Johnson.)
• 1976 Democratic pickup winner Jimmy Carter: Minnesota.
• 1980 Republican pickup winner Ronald Reagan: Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Texas.
• 1992 Democratic pickup winner Bill Clinton: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine [statewide], Maryland, New Jersey, and Vermont.
• 2000 Republican pickup winner George W. Bush: Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Tennessee, and West Virginia.
• 2008 Democratic pickup winner Barack Obama: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Virginia.
• 2016 Republican pickup winner Donald Trump: Florida, Iowa, and Ohio. (Also a pickup: non-state Maine’s 2nd Congressional District.)
The 2020 Democratic pickups for Joe Biden are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. (Also a pickup: non-state Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.)
It is too soon to say anything about the 2020 Democratic pickups. But, my feeling is that the Rust Belt trio are now the best bellwether states. That the next time the White House switches from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party, those three will flip and carry. So, it may be that, with Election 2020, Arizona and Georgia will have realigned to the Democrats.
We have yet to find out if any of the 2016 Republican pickups, which did not flip as 2020 Democratic pickups, can be won back. I consider Florida as feasible. (Unseated Trump held it by +3 points while he lost nationally by the roughly the same.) But, I am writing off Iowa (with a similar margin as the Buckeye State). And that brings me to even more about Ohio.
Ohio was on an incredible streak: 14 consecutive cycles. Historically, the record belongs to both Nevada and New Mexico. Since the latter first voted in 1912, the year it was admitted into the union as the 47th state, the two voted with all winners for the next 60 years until 1972. During that period, Nevada and New Mexico voted with all winners in 16 consecutive cycles. So, a 2020 Ohio was facing the following possibilities: make it 15 in a row; match the record; surpass the record; or end its streak.
It may be refreshing to no longer defer to Ohio as the leading influence in U.S. presidential elections. Nothing goes on forever. We have had other bellwethers. California and Illinois voted for 22 and 23 of the 25 winners of the 20th century. Missouri voted for all winners, except in 1956, from 1904 to 2004. Tennessee voted with all winners, except in 1924 and 1960, from 1912 to 2004. And there are the pair Nevada and New Mexico. After so long, they dropped off—and they ended up realigning to one of the two major political parties. And, so, as Ohio goes…so goes the nation [no more].
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