Election 2024 Prediction: Trump … Vance … Republican Trifecta

Next week is the 2024 United States presidential election … along with other races and ballot issues. 

“Election Day 2024” will publish Tuesday, November 5, 2024, at 12:00 a.m. ET.

This prediction is final.

In the meantime… 

🇺🇸

I predict Donald Trump, from Florida, will win re-election to a second, non-consecutive term to become the next and 47th president of the United States.

I predict JD Vance, from Ohio, will win election to become the next and 50th vice president of the United States.

I predict the overall outcome for Election 2024 will be the Trifecta for the Republican Party: U.S. President, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House.

While the 2024 Republicans will win a pickup for U.S. President, I predict they will also win a pickup for the U.S. Senate while retaining a majority hold for control for the U.S. House.

Coming into Election 2024, the Democrats have established 51 percent for both U.S. President (in 2020, Joe Biden’s U.S. Popular Vote was 51.26%) and U.S. Senate (in 2022, the Democrats ended up with 51 of its 100 seats). The Republicans also established 51 percent for U.S. House (in 2022, they ended up with 222 of its 435 seats).

It is highly likely, with the overall results of Election 2024, one of these two major political parties will end up with the Trifecta. It looks better for the Republicans. 

I will present maps on U.S. President and U.S. Senate. But, due to more complexity and a difficult visual illustation, I will not follow suit for U.S. House.

🇺🇸

Please note these colors on maps: Solid shade is for party hold. Light shade is for party pickup.

U.S. President

• Winner: Donald Trump

• Winning Ticket: Donald Trump (R–Florida) and JD Vance (R–Ohio)

• Prevailing Party: Republican—pickup

• U.S. Popular Vote [Estimate]: Donald Trump 50% • Kamala Harris 47%

• Percentage-Points Margin [Estimate]: R+3

• Electoral College: 31 states, plus Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, and 312 electoral votes

• 2020-to-2024 Electoral College Change: Republican pickups of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin

🇺🇸

U.S. Senate

• Prevailing Party: Republican—pickup

• U.S. Senate [Outcomes with Minimums]: Democratic 43 • Republican 52; five are not predicted … but they all are states/seats currently in the column for the Democrats

• 2022-to-2024 U.S. Senate Change: Republican pickups of West Virginia [Jim Justice, in an Open race]: Montana [Tim Sheehy, unseating Jon Tester]; and Ohio [Bernie Moreno, unseating Sherrod Brown]

• Watch (in Yellow): Arizona [Kari Lake vs. Ruben Gallego, in an Open race]; Michigan [Mike Rogers vs. Elissa Slotkin, in an Open race]; Nevada [Sam Brown vs. incumbent Jacky Rosen]; Pennsylvania [David McCormick vs. incumbent Bob Casey]; and Wisconsin [Eric Hovde vs. incumbent Tammy Baldwin]

🇺🇸

U.S. House

• Prevailing Party: Republican—hold

• U.S. Popular Vote [Estimate]: Democratic 47% • Republican 50%

• Percentage-Points Margin [Estimate]: R+3

• U.S. House [Estimate]: Democratic 211–215 • Republican 220–224

• 2022-to-2024 U.S. House Change: Republican –2 to +2