The U.S. House Popular Vote

The trajectory of this 2024 United States presidential election has turned in favor for Donald Trump.

Polls show he is leading in nearly or all the commonly focused “Swing States.”

I will make my predictions next week, for Monday, October 28, 2024.

(The following week, for Tuesday, November 5, 2024, will focus on Election Day.)

Why am I not going ahead with Election 2024 predictions this week?

There is good reason.

Since the year 2000, specifically in United States presidential elections, the party which won the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. House also prevailed for U.S. President.

This includes the last two Republican pickup years of 2000 and 2016—for George W. Bush and Trump—who did not carry the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. President. (Bush succeeded with re-election in 2004.)

Given this, I am following Real Clear Politics’s tracking of the “Generic Congressional Vote.” 

I anticipate—and expect—this pattern will hold.

The above chart are results from Elections 2000–2020. 

The percentage-points margins—U.S. President vs. U.S. House—have been closely connected. Average, over six election cycles, was only 1.94 percentage points in margin.

The below images are from Real Clear Politics effective Sunday, October 20, 2024. 

The U.S. House is on the schedule every two years. Even-numbered years. With that, they cannot skip an election cycle. The full 100 recent of its seats are scheduled.

Here were the results, in 2022, when Republicans won pickup control for the U.S. House:

If Election 2024 ends up a Democratic hold, to elect Kamala Harris, these numbers may closely reflect national outcomes for U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. President vs. U.S. House. (I sense Democratic percentage-points margins, for U.S. President and U.S. House, to be +5 and +2 or +3.)

If Election 2024 ends up a Republican pickup for U.S. President, to re-elect Trump to a second non-consecutive term, I would anticipate—not unlike the Democrats—the 2024 Republicans to carry the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. House. (I sense Republican percentage-points margins, for U.S. President and U.S. House, to be –1 to +3 and +0 to +4.)

The Democrats are narrowly ahead with this aggregate of polls. Typically the margin of error, for polls, are between 3 to 5 points. This suggests, if this holds, they would flip the U.S. House. This is due to the 2022 Democrats having lost control of the U.S. House, with a minority 213 seats, and a U.S. Popular Vote percentage-points margin of –2.72. This would likely come with Democratic holds for U.S. President and U.S. Senate. 

If it turns out Trump wins this election, these national “Generic Congressional Vote” numbers may see the Republicans—who flipped the U.S. House with the midterm elections of 2022—draw Even or move ahead. This would put the 2024 Republicans on a path for holding the U.S. House while flipping U.S. President and U.S. Senate.

It is no wonder, as last week’s blog title stated, Election 2024 is such a Tossup.