A YouTube content creator, Monsieur Z, whose focus is on political history and analyses, published the above video on Tuesday, April 22, 2025.
It is titled, “What Is The Future Of The Democratic Party After [Trump’s] Presidency?”
I am not concerned.
I have not voted for Team Blue in what is now more than ten years.
The video, with however much one is agreement, is worth one’s time.
On the [Wednesday,] April 16, 2025 episode of The Post Duopoly Show, there was discussion of the efforts of Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio–Cortez to sell people on the Democratic Party. Yes, to say that Donald Trump is horrible. But to also get people motivated, and wanting, to #VoteBlue.
The Revolutionary Blackout guests have a sense there is a push for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination to go to Alexandria Ocasio–Cortez. The group, with concern for actual progressives and their political movement, does not welcome this. I understand. I also understand that what one wants or does not want…things will play out regardless. (I certainly include myself with this.)
One guest’s take on this which stood out for me came from Due Dissidence co-host Keaton Weiss. In fact, I will quote the parts which should resonate. (Which is why I have inserted some ellipses.)
“From the standpoint of the Democratic Party leadership, AOC is the perfect sheepdog…she has enough star power, and enough celebrity, to get millions of people excited about joining the Democratic Party. She is big enough and famous enough and progressive enough to do that. However, unlike Bernie Sanders—who probably would have won the primary if it had been a fair fight—AOC has no chance to actually win the primary. No chance at all.…”
I agree with the first half. The second half—not quite.
I consider the following as well…
On Due Dissidence’s Election Night 2024 livestream, on which I participated with analyses of the electoral map, recurring guest Tusker had an interesting observation. She expressed it at a point (06 hours 21 minutes) in which it was clear Donald Trump would win a non-consecutive, second-term re-election. It was Tusker reflecting on the Democratic Party’s behind-the-scenes powerful who made sure the 2016 and 2020 nominations did not go to Bernie Sanders.
“I’m telling you: There’s going to be a section of the ruling class that is going to, really, legitimately be kicking themselves over not backing Bernie in 2016; because it’s been totally clear that they can put their hand up his ass and make him talk.…”
This!
This speaks to a possible 2028 Democratic presidential nomination for Alexandria Ocasio–Cortez from the state of New York.
I think, from behind the scenes, and after losing not once but twice to Donald Trump…the Democrats will focus on brand image. (With and following Election 2024, the Democratic Party brand has become tarnished.) If any current officeholder can be their ticket back to the White House…to go with someone who is looked at like a star—but one who is also controlled enough—it may be AOC.
The Democratic Party knows they are in a position of weakness with a key demographic given those exit polls from Election 2024: people in the youngest voting-age group of 18–29. This is the voting-age group base when Democrats are the prevailing party for U.S. President. They cannot win without 18–29.
In 2024, Kamala Harris won 18–29 voters nationally by +11 percentage points (54% vs. 43% for Trump). In Elections 2012, 2016, and 2020—re-election for Barack Obama, losing nominee Hillary Clinton, and winner Joe Biden—the Democrats carried this age group nearly +20 points above their national margins. Obama won the U.S. Popular Vote by +3.86 and 18–29 by +23. Hillary won the U.S. Popular Vote by +2.09 and 18–29 by +19. Biden won the U.S. Popular Vote by +4.45 and 18–29 by +24.
When it comes to this voting-age group, a 2012 Obama received 11.40% of his national 51.01%; a 2016 Hillary received 10.45% of her national 48.02%; a 2020 Biden received 10.20% of his national 51.26%; and Harris received 7.56% of her national 48.24%.
Who among today’s Democratic Party officeholders—and ones not currently in office—can move the 18–29 vote, to carry them nationally in excess of +20 (or more) percentage points above the party’s U.S. Popular Vote margin, better than AOC?
Take a look at these tweets from X.
My No. 1 rule for figuring out which major U.S. political party is likely to end up the prevailing party with a given election cycle—midterm and presidential—are the circumstances. The conditions.
Suppose Election 2028 ends up a Democratic pickup for U.S. President. I don’t know, for fact, that this will happen. Not here in April 2025. Suppose it anyway.
There is plenty to consider.
We have had three consecutive party switches for U.S. President with 2016, 2020, and 2024. Historic record, as established in two separate periods during the 19th century, was four.
One can also think of Trump’s presidency, in his second term, and whether what is being experienced—and with what more may come—will result in voters allowing the 2028 Republicans to win a party hold and have the next four years for U.S. President.
One can also observe, as I have, that since the 1950s—the first full decade of television here in the United States—there has been only one year on record in which The People had to elect a new president and chose someone from the incumbent White House party. That was in 1988 with Republican George Bush. All others were party switches.
Again…suppose Election 2028 switches the White House party from Republican to Democratic.
Who on or not on that list, other than AOC, is a star who would sufficiently and efficiently move the 18–29 voters and get Team Blue back to electable level also with the demographics of people who are Black and people who are Hispanic? (Biden nationally carried Hispanic voters by +33; Harris won them by +5.)
Who, other than AOC, appears to fit the profile?
It is not wise to say that someone has “No chance at all!” The United States has had plenty of presidents who, as initially perceived, had no chance. One such U.S. president is now in the White House.
Since the 1950s, the Republican and Democratic presidential pickup winners were: Dwight Eisenhower, John Kennedy, Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden. Both of Trump’s wins were pickups. The next party switch will go from Republican to Democratic. All those winners were stars—some a little less so—who stood out.
AOC’s path to the nomination would likely meet with the approval of those who have the power in the Democratic Party. The Loyal Democratic Party Voters—perhaps all stripes—love and abide by the party establishment and would proceed to vote the 2028 presidential nomination to AOC. Pre-Super Tuesday. Super Tuesday. Post-Super Tuesday. And I get the sense, here in 2025, these recent rallies with Bernie and AOC are coming from the people who have the power in the Democratic Party. I think the people who yield the power in the Democratic Party also know, and this has been played out in history, that their party’s next pickup of the presidency is most highly going to be with a “change” candidate.
If Election 2028 ends up a Democratic pickup, I don’t see anyone in or out of office in the Democratic Party—and this includes Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro and Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer (who may be Résumé Candidates)—who is a star and motivates voters to turn out, like Alexandria Ocasio–Cortez.
This week marks two milestone Flashback anniversaries of past historic events which had impact on many people here in the United States.
The calendar was the same in 1975 as it is here in 2025. On Tuesday, April 15 exactly 50 years will have been reached since New Jersey resident Karen Ann Quinlan, born March 29, 1954, and at age 21, went to a party and never returned.
Quinlan mixed alcohol and Valium. Friends found her unconscious. Karen remained that way.
In a vegetative state for months, her parents, Joseph (1925–1996) and Julia (b. 1928), brought legal action to have Karen removed from life support. They and their case did not succeed, at first, but in 1976 the New Jersey Supreme Court sided with the parents.
Karen Ann Quinlan did not die until June 11, 1985. So, this present year 2025 marks 50 years since she effectively died, yes, and it is 40 years since she legally died.
This tragedy brought to the conscious of United States citizens the matter of dying with dignity and not being artificially kept alive on life support.
Recommended reading:
• Wikipedia — Karen Ann Quinlan
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This Saturday, April 19, 2025 will mark 30 years since the bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
This occurred on Wednesday, April 19. 1995, at approximately 09:00 a.m. CT.
More than 150 people were killed. There were several hundreds injured.
Responsible for this crime of terrorism was Timothy McVeigh, a former U.S. Army soldier, with co-conspirator Terry Nichols.
McVeigh was born April 23, 1968, in Lockport, New York. This was the birth month of my sibling. At age 33, he was executed June 11, 2001 in Terre Haute, Indiana. That was sixteen years to the date following the death of Karen Ann Quinlan. (Coincidence, here and there, with the calendar.)
Nichols was born April 1, 1955 in Lapeer, Michigan, Now age 70, he is serving life in prison at the United States Penitentiary Florence Administrative Maximum Facility (ADX Florence) in Fremont County (near the city of Florence) in Colorado.
I will leave this with more recommended reading: but any related videos—about Karen Ann Quinlan and the Oklahoma City Bombing—will be posted by me in Comments. (Next week’s blog topic will get publish according to normal schedule.)
The last two weeks, ending March and beginning April, here in 2025 saw outcomes in Special elections which are indicators of what will likely play out in coming elections which include the midterm elections of 2026.
A reminder: Election 2024 resulted in Republican pickups for U.S. President—a non-consecutive second-term re-election for 45th and 47th Donald Trump—and U.S. Senate. The U.S. House was a Republican hold.
These Special election outcomes say a lot.
• 03.25.2025 | Pennsylvania Senate District #36 delivered a party switch from Republican to Democratic for James Andrew Malone. This seat was held by Republican Ryan Aument. He resigned to become state director for fellow Republican David McCormick, who unseated then-Democratic incumbent Bob Casey in the state’s 2024 U.S. Senate election. This is a district, as reported by numerous sources, that Trump carried by +15 percentage points.
• 04.01.2025 | Florida had two special U.S. House elections: the 1st and 6th congressional districts. The former was to fill the seat previously held by Matt Gaetz. The latter was for the seat formerly held by Michael Waltz, who is now in Trump’s administration as National Security Advisor and, just recently, became a national security scandal via the Signal chat. Last November 2024, Republican holds were won by Gaetz +32 and Waltz +33 percentage points. They ended up, here in 2025, as Republican holds for Jimmy Patronis +14.6 and Randy Fine +14.
• 04.01.2025 | Wisconsin had two matters. The first was for whether to enshrine into the state’s constitution Voter ID. That has passed. The second issue is with the state’s Supreme Court. The side more generally favorable for Democrats prevailed with Dane County judge Susan Crawford. This win preserves a 4-to-3 majority favoring more liberal-aligned judges. Crawford won by +10 percentage points. (Below is the electoral map image appearing on Wikipedia.)
The Wisconsin Supreme Court needed a win for the liberal side, Yes, with Crawford. Reasons are numerous. But there is one particular issue which stands out.
Wisconsin’s current delegation of seats in the United States House of Representatives is 6-to-2 favoring the Republicans. That is 75 percent.
Wisconsin is a leading bellwether state. Along with Pennsylvania and Michigan, the Badger State is on the longest active streak with having voted for the winners of United States presidential elections. Currently at five, the streak has been continuous since 2008. Wisconsin, in fact, was the tipping-point state in 2016 and 2020. It was 2016 Donald Trump’s No. 28 best of 30 carried states and his 270th cumulative electoral vote (as one tracks in descending order carried states’s percentage-points margins with their cumulative electoral votes). It was 2020 Joe Biden’s No. 23 best of 25 carried states and his 279th cumulative electoral vote. With Trump’s re-election in 2024, his tipping-point state was Pennsylvania. It was his No. 29 best of 31 carried states and his 287th electoral vote. Michigan ranked No. 30 to give him his 302nd electoral vote. Wisconsin was his No. 31 and delivered him to his official electoral-vote score of 312.
Wisconsin is an Even state. Along with its Rust Belt companions, this trio are likely to continue as the U.S.’s leading bellwether states. The three are now at five in a row—2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024. I would not be surprised if, and that I am still alive, they continue for another 20 years with five more consecutive cycles through 2044. (Current record: 60 years and 16 consecutive election cycles, from 1912 to 1972, shared by Nevada and New Mexico.) This is because Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are not on a trendline to become notably redder or bluer than a host of other states which, in turn, would have to become increasing and eventually purple.
It is my conclusion the Democrats needed this because they have to get the state’s map of U.S. House seats redrawn. Wisconsin is a badly gerrymandered state. (Possibly the worst in the nation.) In a good electoral year for either major U.S. political party, the most either the Republicans or Democrats should be able to have are 5 of the state’s 8 congressional seats. That is the equivalent of 62.50 percent. An equal 4-to-4 is ideal. So, this 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court election outcome is necessary.
These Republican underperformances come less than six months after the November 5, 2024 re-election of Trump. Now joined by the most recent controversial—and to many it is alarming—issue on Trump’s tariffs, the honeymoon is over.
I am leaning—even if it may seem too early—toward predicting the following: In 2024, voters preferred the color red. In 2026, voters will prefer the color blue. Here in April 2025, we know this is true with these Special elections. Come November 3, 2025 will be the gubernatorial elections in the U.S.’s Nos. 11 and 12 populous states, New Jersey and Virginia. (I will write and post about them in a future topic.)
Given the Election 2024 outcome for U.S. House was Republicans 220 vs. Democrats 215, it is important to keep in mind this also means Republicans 50.57% vs. Democrats 49.42% of the overall 435 seats.
There isn’t much work the 2026 Democrats will need to do. (I don’t like admitting that.) Little national shifting is required for voters to re-empower Team Blue with flipping the U.S. House. If things get even uglier, the U.S. Senate—even with a perceived tougher map (Senate Class No. 2)—may follow.
