The last two weeks, ending March and beginning April, here in 2025 saw outcomes in Special elections which are indicators of what will likely play out in coming elections which include the midterm elections of 2026.
A reminder: Election 2024 resulted in Republican pickups for U.S. President—a non-consecutive second-term re-election for 45th and 47th Donald Trump—and U.S. Senate. The U.S. House was a Republican hold.
These Special election outcomes say a lot.
Summary
• 03.25.2025 | Pennsylvania Senate District #36 delivered a party switch from Republican to Democratic for James Andrew Malone. This seat was held by Republican Ryan Aument. He resigned to become state director for fellow Republican David McCormick, who unseated then-Democratic incumbent Bob Casey in the state’s 2024 U.S. Senate election. This is a district, as reported by numerous sources, that Trump carried by +15 percentage points.
• 04.01.2025 | Florida had two special U.S. House elections: the 1st and 6th congressional districts. The former was to fill the seat previously held by Matt Gaetz. The latter was for the seat formerly held by Michael Waltz, who is now in Trump’s administration as National Security Advisor and, just recently, became a national security scandal via the Signal chat. Last November 2024, Republican holds were won by Gaetz +32 and Waltz +33 percentage points. They ended up, here in 2025, as Republican holds for Jimmy Patronis +14.6 and Randy Fine +14.
• 04.01.2025 | Wisconsin had two matters. The first was for whether to enshrine into the state’s constitution Voter ID. That has passed. The second issue is with the state’s Supreme Court. The side more generally favorable for Democrats prevailed with Dane County judge Susan Crawford. This win preserves a 4-to-3 majority favoring more liberal-aligned judges. Crawford won by +10 percentage points. (Below is the electoral map image appearing on Wikipedia.)
Opinion
The Wisconsin Supreme Court needed a win for the liberal side, Yes, with Crawford. Reasons are numerous. But there is one particular issue which stands out.
Wisconsin’s current delegation of seats in the United States House of Representatives is 6-to-2 favoring the Republicans. That is 75 percent.
Wisconsin is a leading bellwether state. Along with Pennsylvania and Michigan, the Badger State is on the longest active streak with having voted for the winners of United States presidential elections. Currently at five, the streak has been continuous since 2008. Wisconsin, in fact, was the tipping-point state in 2016 and 2020. It was 2016 Donald Trump’s No. 28 best of 30 carried states and his 270th cumulative electoral vote (as one tracks in descending order carried states’s percentage-points margins with their cumulative electoral votes). It was 2020 Joe Biden’s No. 23 best of 25 carried states and his 279th cumulative electoral vote. With Trump’s re-election in 2024, his tipping-point state was Pennsylvania. It was his No. 29 best of 31 carried states and his 287th electoral vote. Michigan ranked No. 30 to give him his 302nd electoral vote. Wisconsin was his No. 31 and delivered him to his official electoral-vote score of 312.
Wisconsin is an Even state. Along with its Rust Belt companions, this trio are likely to continue as the U.S.’s leading bellwether states. The three are now at five in a row—2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024. I would not be surprised if, and that I am still alive, they continue for another 20 years with five more consecutive cycles through 2044. (Current record: 60 years and 16 consecutive election cycles, from 1912 to 1972, shared by Nevada and New Mexico.) This is because Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are not on a trendline to become notably redder or bluer than a host of other states which, in turn, would have to become increasing and eventually purple.
It is my conclusion the Democrats needed this because they have to get the state’s map of U.S. House seats redrawn. Wisconsin is a badly gerrymandered state. (Possibly the worst in the nation.) In a good electoral year for either major U.S. political party, the most either the Republicans or Democrats should be able to have are 5 of the state’s 8 congressional seats. That is the equivalent of 62.50 percent. An equal 4-to-4 is ideal. So, this 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court election outcome is necessary.
Conclusion
These Republican underperformances come less than six months after the November 5, 2024 re-election of Trump. Now joined by the most recent controversial—and to many it is alarming—issue on Trump’s tariffs, the honeymoon is over.
I am leaning—even if it may seem too early—toward predicting the following: In 2024, voters preferred the color red. In 2026, voters will prefer the color blue. Here in April 2025, we know this is true with these Special elections. Come November 3, 2025 will be the gubernatorial elections in the U.S.’s Nos. 11 and 12 populous states, New Jersey and Virginia. (I will write and post about them in a future topic.)
Given the Election 2024 outcome for U.S. House was Republicans 220 vs. Democrats 215, it is important to keep in mind this also means Republicans 50.57% vs. Democrats 49.42% of the overall 435 seats.
There isn’t much work the 2026 Democrats will need to do. (I don’t like admitting that.) Little national shifting is required for voters to re-empower Team Blue with flipping the U.S. House. If things get even uglier, the U.S. Senate—even with a perceived tougher map (Senate Class No. 2)—may follow.
