‘No chance at all’

On the [Wednesday,] April 16, 2025 episode of The Post Duopoly Show, there was discussion of the efforts of Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio–Cortez to sell people on the Democratic Party. Yes, to say that Donald Trump is horrible. But to also get people motivated, and wanting, to #VoteBlue. 

The Revolutionary Blackout guests have a sense there is a push for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination to go to Alexandria Ocasio–Cortez. The group, with concern for actual progressives and their political movement, does not welcome this. I understand. I also understand that what one wants or does not want…things will play out regardless. (I certainly include myself with this.)

One guest’s take on this which stood out for me came from Due Dissidence co-host Keaton Weiss. In fact, I will quote the parts which should resonate. (Which is why I have inserted some ellipses.)

“From the standpoint of the Democratic Party leadership, AOC is the perfect sheepdog…she has enough star power, and enough celebrity, to get millions of people excited about joining the Democratic Party. She is big enough and famous enough and progressive enough to do that. However, unlike Bernie Sanders—who probably would have won the primary if it had been a fair fight—AOC has no chance to actually win the primary. No chance at all.…”

I agree with the first half. The second half—not quite.

I consider the following as well…

On Due Dissidence’s Election Night 2024 livestream, on which I participated with analyses of the electoral map, recurring guest Tusker had an interesting observation. She expressed it at a point (06 hours 21 minutes) in which it was clear Donald Trump would win a non-consecutive, second-term re-election. It was Tusker reflecting on the Democratic Party’s behind-the-scenes powerful who made sure the 2016 and 2020 nominations did not go to Bernie Sanders.

“I’m telling you: There’s going to be a section of the ruling class that is going to, really, legitimately be kicking themselves over not backing Bernie in 2016; because it’s been totally clear that they can put their hand up his ass and make him talk.…”

This!

This speaks to a possible 2028 Democratic presidential nomination for Alexandria Ocasio–Cortez from the state of New York.

I think, from behind the scenes, and after losing not once but twice to Donald Trump…the Democrats will focus on brand image. (With and following Election 2024, the Democratic Party brand has become tarnished.) If any current officeholder can be their ticket back to the White House…to go with someone who is looked at like a star—but one who is also controlled enough—it may be AOC.

The Democratic Party knows they are in a position of weakness with a key demographic given those exit polls from Election 2024: people in the youngest voting-age group of 18–29. This is the voting-age group base when Democrats are the prevailing party for U.S. President. They cannot win without 18–29.

In 2024, Kamala Harris won 18–29 voters nationally by +11 percentage points (54% vs. 43% for Trump). In Elections 2012, 2016, and 2020—re-election for Barack Obama, losing nominee Hillary Clinton, and winner Joe Biden—the Democrats carried this age group nearly +20 points above their national margins. Obama won the U.S. Popular Vote by +3.86 and 18–29 by +23. Hillary won the U.S. Popular Vote by +2.09 and 18–29 by +19. Biden won the U.S. Popular Vote by +4.45 and 18–29 by +24. 

When it comes to this voting-age group, a 2012 Obama received 11.40% of his national 51.01%; a 2016 Hillary received 10.45% of her national 48.02%; a 2020 Biden received 10.20% of his national 51.26%; and Harris received 7.56% of her national 48.24%.

Who among today’s Democratic Party officeholders—and ones not currently in office—can move the 18–29 vote, to carry them nationally in excess of +20 (or more) percentage points above the party’s U.S. Popular Vote margin, better than AOC?

Take a look at these tweets from X.

My No. 1 rule for figuring out which major U.S. political party is likely to end up the prevailing party with a given election cycle—midterm and presidential—are the circumstances. The conditions.

Suppose Election 2028 ends up a Democratic pickup for U.S. President. I don’t know, for fact, that this will happen. Not here in April 2025. Suppose it anyway. 

There is plenty to consider.

We have had three consecutive party switches for U.S. President with 2016, 2020, and 2024. Historic record, as established in two separate periods during the 19th century, was four. 

One can also think of Trump’s presidency, in his second term, and whether what is being experienced—and with what more may come—will result in voters allowing the 2028 Republicans to win a party hold and have the next four years for U.S. President.

One can also observe, as I have, that since the 1950s—the first full decade of television here in the United States—there has been only one year on record in which The People had to elect a new president and chose someone from the incumbent White House party. That was in 1988 with Republican George Bush. All others were party switches.

Again…suppose Election 2028 switches the White House party from Republican to Democratic.

Who on or not on that list, other than AOC, is a star who would sufficiently and efficiently move the 18–29 voters and get Team Blue back to electable level also with the demographics of people who are Black and people who are Hispanic? (Biden nationally carried Hispanic voters by +33; Harris won them by +5.)

Who, other than AOC, appears to fit the profile?

It is not wise to say that someone has “No chance at all!” The United States has had plenty of presidents who, as initially perceived, had no chance. One such U.S. president is now in the White House. 

Since the 1950s, the Republican and Democratic presidential pickup winners were: Dwight Eisenhower, John Kennedy, Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden. Both of Trump’s wins were pickups. The next party switch will go from Republican to Democratic. All those winners were stars—some a little less so—who stood out. 

AOC’s path to the nomination would likely meet with the approval of those who have the power in the Democratic Party. The Loyal Democratic Party Voters—perhaps all stripes—love and abide by the party establishment and would proceed to vote the 2028 presidential nomination to AOC. Pre-Super Tuesday. Super Tuesday. Post-Super Tuesday. And I get the sense, here in 2025, these recent rallies with Bernie and AOC are coming from the people who have the power in the Democratic Party. I think the people who yield the power in the Democratic Party also know, and this has been played out in history, that their party’s next pickup of the presidency is most highly going to be with a “change” candidate.

If Election 2028 ends up a Democratic pickup, I don’t see anyone in or out of office in the Democratic Party—and this includes Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro and Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer (who may be Résumé Candidates)—who is a star and motivates voters to turn out, like Alexandria Ocasio–Cortez.