No, Debbie!

A few days ago, I received solicitation to donate to the 2018 re-election campaign of the senior U.S. senator from my home state, Michigan, Democrat Debbie Stabenow.

I say, “No.”

In fact, I don’t want Debbie Stabenow re-nominated let alone re-elected.

Debbie Stabenow has not come out for Medicare For All. That, right there, is enough. But, there was also the GMO Labeling bill from 2016.

I am also not pleased that Debbie Stabenow, and seemingly nearly everyone else who was or is a Democratic incumbent, endorsed Hillary Clinton for the 2016 Democratic nomination for U.S. president before the first contest officially kicked off February 1, 2016 in Iowa.

I suppose I could be persuaded if Debbie Stabenow were to get on board for Medicare For All.

She is not there yet.

I am.

I know how to handle this.

In the meantime, I don’t mind sharing.

If I go by this mailing, I am supposed to be scared of Steve Bannon.

That is the reason, according to U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow, why I should mail money to and support Debbie Stabenow.

No, Debbie!

 

 

 UPDATE:  The special U.S. Senate election in Alabama resulted December 12, 2017 in a Democratic pickup for former U.S. federal prosecutor Doug Jones having defeated Republican nominee and ex-state Supreme Court chief justice Roy Moore. The margin is between +1 and +2 for Jones. (Last I checked with CNN’s exit polls: Moore carried men by +14. Jones carried women by +16. Males were 49 percent of the size of votes cast. Women were 51 percent.)

In 2014, then-Republican incumbent Jeff Sessions, now the U.S. attorney general, won re-election—in what was a Republican pickup year for the U.S. Senate—without an opposition-party challenger. Sessions received more than 97 percent of the statewide vote. 

In terms of numbers, this is amazing. But, what it also means is that the White House opposition party, the Democratic Party, is in position to flip the U.S. Senate to follow the U.S. House. (All U.S. House seats are scheduled every two years. The U.S. Senate is one-third. That is why the U.S. House usually goes before the U.S. Senate if they don’t flip in the same cycle. Think 2010 and 2014.) The route would be, with the Democrats heading into Election 2018 with 49, to retain all currently held Democratic seats. (In the midterm waves for U.S. Senate pickups in 1994 and 2014 for the Republicans, and 2006 for the Democrats, the minority party going in ended not losing a single seat.) Reaching 51 would be with flipping Republican-held seats from Nevada (incumbent Dean Heller) and Arizona (an open race now that Jeff Flake bowed out). Anything more would be just presenting a tier of which states would follow (Tennessee and Texas; or reverse that order; it could be fun if the Lone Star State’s Ted Cruz would get unseated.)

Since the governorships have aligned to the U.S. Senate since 1995, meaning just four consecutive years of majorities for the Democrats (2007–2010), I would also say that the Democrats will reach their needed +10 for a majority pickup of governorships. (Team Blue goes in Election 2018 with 16 to the Republicans’s 33.) The Democrats’ route to winning a majority-count pickup is mainly with states carried in 2016 by Hillary Clinton with Republican governors. (Eight are applicable: Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Vermont.) This would be followed by the states which flipped, with Election 2016, Republican for Donald Trump. (This includes my home state Michigan.) After this, it would come states prone to elect governors from the party opposite a sitting U.S. president. (States like Arizona, Kansas, and Tennessee have been on this pattern since at least the 1990s.) Amazingly, 36 of the nation’s 50 states hold their gubernatorial elections in midterm years. This includes nine of the Top 10 most-populous states. So, the Democrats have the advantage here as well. 

The upcoming 2018 midterm elections are very much looking to be on a trajectory of a wave for the Democrats. So, given that I wrote and scheduled “No, Debbie!” ahead of time, the update with that is that she does not need my money. I just wish a lot of these Democratic incumbents would lose their bids for re-nomination. (Dianne Feinstein, specifically, is definitely not needed in California.) But, hey, that’s the difference between Republican and Democratic primaries voters—those from Team Red are more effective in denying incumbents re-nomination. (Think of the late Utah U.S. Sen. Robert Bennett, in 2010, and former U.S. House majority leader Eric Cantor of Virginia, in 2014.)  

What does this mean for Donald Trump’s chances for re-election in 2020? Should the Democrats get these majority pickups, and should Trump want to get re-elected, I think some of his approaches in leadership will change to become more palatable—which would get his approval numbers up. (This could be an eight-year parallel following his Democratic predecessor, Barack Obama.) And the Democrats would end up a blessing for Trump. (They will likely nominate another empty corporatist.) Yes, this does have to with voting patterns. Don’t ever underestimate that. (Just after Election 2016, Nancy Pelosi revealed she tracks them.) This also goes to show why U.S. politics are sick.

Following is a video of CNN projecting the Doug Jones victory.