No, Gary!

Just a few days ago, I received the following in my e-mail:

This came from Gary Peters, the junior United States senator from my home state Michigan. Peters won his first-term election in 2014, just after his predecessor Carl Levin, first elected in 1978, opted to not seek re-election after six terms. (Levin, who established the record for Michigan’s longest serving member in the U.S. Senate, turned 80 in 2014.)

I am not supportive of Gary Peters. He is very much a corporate Democrat. Peters voted to renew Ajit Pai to head the FCC. He also joined Michigan’s senior U.S. senator, Debbie Stabenow, to vote on weakening Dodd–Frank for further deregulation of Wall Street.

I will not vote for Debbie Stabenow, who also takes money from the pharmaceuticals industry, and who co-sponsored a bill to let GMO’s not have to be labeled, to be re-elected here in 2018. I will not even vote for Stabenow to be re-nominated. She was first elected in 2000. That’s long enough.

Unfortunately, with 2018 shaping up to be a Democratic wave—or, if that fails, the overall seat gains in Congress still make it an advantage for Team Blue—it is likely Stabenow (or, preferably, her successor) will hold that seat in the Democratic column. (I haven’t kept track whether Stabenow has a primary challenger. I have nothing good to say, generally, about the Michigan Democratic Party.)

Fortunately, 2020 is something else. In 2016, for the first time in U.S. history, and for the first time since the 17th Amendment allowed direct elections of U.S. Senators by the states’ voters, every state with a scheduled U.S. Senate election ended up seeing a 100-percent alignment in outcomes. To be more specific: the coattails effect aligned perfectly. All states with a U.S. Senate election carried for the same political party at both the presidential and senatorial level. (In 2004, 2008, and 2012, the alignments were about 75 to 80 percent—meaning, say, 25 to 27 of 33 or 34 races.) In 2016, Republican presidential pickup winner Donald Trump flipped six states: Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Michigan was the only state not on the schedule for 2016. And that may have spared Stabenow and Peters. But, in 2020, Michigan is on the schedule. And if Trump gets re-elected, he will likely carry Michigan with re-election. And if that manifests, it will open up the potential for Peters, should he get re-nominated, to get unseated by a challenger who is from the officially-named Republican Party. And, for Peters, it would be well-earned.

This e-mail, from Gary Peters’ campaign, has no clue where I stand. (It is not with Gary Peters.)

Open Weekend

This “Open Weekend” thread is a regular thing for Fridays, Saturdays, and Sundays.

Please take this Progressives Chat to wherever you may want it to go.

Entertainment Weekend

“Entertainment Weekend” threads invite you to share anything—including content—on movies, television, and music on Fridays, Saturdays, and Sundays.

Election 2020’s Key Bellwethers: The Rust Belt Trio Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan

On Monday [April 23, 2018], my blog entry was bringing to readers’ attention an interview with Thomas Frank who, not to my surprise, can imagine Donald Trump winning re-election in 2020. I noted, briefly, that I can also imagine how it would unfold. But, I did not get specific. So, with my having written this well ahead of time, I will use today’s date for posting this blog entry. The following is where it actually begins. (Fair warning: This is a long read.)


Two-plus years from the next presidential election, which will be the 59th in U.S. history, and with a scheduled date of [Tuesday,] November 3, 2020, seems a long way off to be making any predictions.

I will go ahead and make one prediction that doesn’t come across as something out of the ordinary or outrageous but, ultimately, makes sense.

I am predicting that the winner of the 2020 United States presidential election will carry the Rust Belt trio of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

Are these particular states special?

Yes.

They were the states which catapulted Donald Trump to victory in 2016.

Wisconsin was the tipping-point state of Election 2016. It was followed, in order, by Pennsylvania and Michigan. (This is why I listed them in that order in this blog entry’s title.)

A tipping-point state is the one whose percentage-points margin, as one ranks all carried states (and non-states and congressional districts) in the column of a presidential winner, tipped the election to the winner. As one lists them and their percentage-points margins, ranked in descending order, one must also track their cumulative electoral votes to reach that tipping point—that 270th electoral vote. (It’s like doing some accounting—with a reconciling of the numbers.) As one does this with 2016 Republican presidential pickup winner Donald Trump—who won 30 states (plus Maine #02) and an initial 306 electoral votes—his No. 28 best-performed state, his Republican pickup of Wisconsin, turns out be the state which gave him his 270th electoral vote. No. 29 Pennsylvania, also a Republican pickup, gave Trump his 290th electoral vote. No. 30 Michigan, a likewise Republican pickup, gave him his 306th electoral vote.


As a reminder: The following is the map from Election 2016. (Light shades are pickups.)

Here were the 30 states, plus the 2nd Congressional District of Maine, carried in 2016 by Republican presidential pickup winner Donald Trump (along with their ranked percentage-points margins):

— Nebraska #03 +54.19 (cum. 1)
01. Wyoming +46.30 (cum. 4)

02. West Virginia +41.68 (cum. 9)

03. Oklahoma +36.39 (cum. 16)

04. North Dakota +35.73 (cum. 19)

05. Idaho +31.76 (cum. 23)

06. Kentucky +29.84 (cum. 31)

07. South Dakota +29.79 (cum. 34)

08. Alabama +27.73 (cum. 43)

09. Arkansas +26.92 (cum. 49)

10. Tennessee +26.01 (cum. 60)

11. Nebraska [statewide] +25.05 (cum. 62)

— Nebraska #01 +20.72 (cum. 63)

12. Kansas +20.42 (cum. 69)

13. Montana +20.23 (cum. 72)

14. Louisiana +19.64 (cum. 80)

15. Indiana +19.01 (cum. 91)

16. Missouri +18.51 (cum. 101)

17. Utah +17.89 (cum. 107)

18. Mississippi +17.80 (cum. 113)

19. Alaska +14.73 (cum. 116)

20. South Carolina +14.27 (cum. 125)

— Maine #02 +10.28 (cum. 126)

21. Iowa +9.41 (cum. 132)

22. Texas +8.98 (cum. 170)

23. Ohio +8.07 (cum. 188)

24. Georgia +5.10 (cum. 204)

25. North Carolina +3.66 (cum. 219)

26. Arizona +3.50 (cum. 230)

— Nebraska #02 +2.23 (cum. 231)

27. Florida +1.19 (cum. 260)

28. Wisconsin +0.76 (cum. 270)—Tipping-Point State

29. Pennsylvania +0.72 (cum. 290)

30. Michigan +0.22 (cum. 306)

Take a look specifically at the six states—appearing in light red—which flipped from the 2012 Democratic (re-elected Barack Obama) to the 2016 Republican (pickup winner Donald Trump) column: Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. But, set aside the 2nd Congressional District of Maine, because, unlike the others, it is not a state. The average percentage-points margin from the six pickup states was +3.39.

If the Democrats unseat Donald Trump in 2020, it will depend on the national shift (2016 to 2020) to more closely estimate what that electoral map would look like. But, with Hillary Clinton having won a Democratic hold of the U.S. Popular Vote, the party would once again win that popular vote. (Hillary held it by +2.09 percentage points; that is, 48.02 percent for Hillary vs. 45.93 percent for Trump.) A 2020 Democratic presidential pickup winner would send that +2.09 margin north by an undetermined level (which may be, just as a guess, in the area of +5 to +8, which means a national shift of +3 to +6).

This would, in theory, flip up to the following: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida and, if there any more, the further potential with Nebraska #02, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia. Perhaps long-established bellwether Ohio would come too. (Ohio has voted with the winner in 14 consecutive presidential election cycles, from 1964–2016. My theory as to why Trump won the Buckeye State by +8 and approximately +447k votes—dramatically above more recent maximums +5 and +275k votes—was that he needed that level of margin from Ohio in order to also flip each of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and, the bluest of that Rust Belt trio, Michigan. He won over Michigan by nearly +11k votes. The 2016 spreads between Ohio and Michigan were +7.85 percentage points and +436k votes.)

If the 2020 Republicans hold the presidency, with re-election for Donald Trump, he would most likely increase national support. (Although the opposite happened with 2012 Barack Obama, this is the historic norm of presidents re-elected to a second term.) A 2020 Trump cannot go from –2.09 to a decline. That would make him lose that back end of his list (the Rust Belt trio)—which comprise 46 electoral votes—and, with the first two ranked as Top 10 populous states and the third ranked No. 20, it would result in Trump getting unseated. So, Trump—if it turns out he gets re-elected—has nowhere to go but up.

Here were the percentage-points margins from the 20 states, plus District of Columbia, which were Democratic holds for 2016 losing nominee Hillary Clinton (and listed in ranked descending order):

— District of Columbia +86.78 (cum. 3)
1. Hawaii +32.18 (cum. 7)
2. California +29.99 (cum. 62)
3. Massachusetts +27.20 (cum. 73)
4. Maryland +26.42 (cum. 83)
5. Vermont +26.41 (cum. 86)
6. New York +22.49 (cum. 115)
7. Illinois +16.89 (cum. 135)
8. Washington +15.71 (cum. 147)
9. Rhode Island +15.51 (cum. 151)
— Maine #01 +14.81 (cum. 152)
10. New Jersey +13.98 (cum. 166)
11. Connecticut +13.64 (cum. 173)
12. Delaware +11.37 (cum. 176)
13. Oregon +10.98 (cum. 183)
14. New Mexico +8.21 (cum. 188)
15. Virginia +5.32 (cum. 201)
16. Colorado +4.91 (cum. 210)
17. Maine [statewide] +2.96 (cum. 212)
18. Nevada +2.42 (cum. 218)
19. Minnesota +1.51 (cum. 228)
20. New Hampshire +0.37 (cum. 232)


The potential of a 2020 re-elected Donald Trump, with increased national support, brings about the likelihood to flip more states. (No one presidential election’s electoral map was later duplicated. And I seriously mean exactly. So, it is unlikely 2020 will exactly mirror 2016.) And those on the list of what carried for Hillary Clinton, and at the back end, leave those carried by +3 percentage points of less especially vulnerable. (That was the national margins increase for re-elections with both 1996 Bill Clinton and 2004 George W. Bush.)

Ultimately, Election 2020 comes down to the Rust Belt trio Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. I don’t envision a map without them ending up carrying for the 2020 winner. Given there was a 0.54 percentage-points margins spread between No. 28 Wisconsin and No. 30 Michigan, it is likely they will carry the same again in 2020.


There are a few more facts to keep in mind:

• Pennsylvania and Michigan are each other’s historically best companion states. Since Michigan, the younger of the two, first voted in 1836, the two have carried the same in all but five elections from 1836–2016. Even more to the point: Since the Republicans’ first victory, with Abraham Lincoln in 1860, Pennsylvania and Michigan carried the same in all 40 election cycles of 1860–2016 but with the exceptions of three: 1932, 1940, and 1976. So, the two have carried the same in 37 of the last 40 elections, a period of 156 years, which is good for a rate of 92.50 percent. (It was no surprise that when a 2016 Donald Trump flipped Pennsylvania, the first of the two projected on Election Night, he also flipped Michigan.) 
• What Pennsylvania and Michigan also have in common is this: Setting aside Franklin Roosevelt—the only U.S. president elected beyond a second term—for all the other presidents who won two terms, and who carried carried Pennsylvania and Michigan with their first election…well, they carried both states with re-election. 
• Over the last ten elections of 1980–2016, the only presidential candidate who lost in both the Electoral College and U.S. Popular Vote, but who carried both Pennsylvania and Michigan, was John Kerry in 2004. (During this period, Wisconsin carried the same as Pennsylvania and Michigan in all with exception of 1988.)

This leads me to my conclusion: When Hillary Clinton failed to hold Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan—marking the first time Wisconsin carried Republican since Ronald Reagan won 49 states with re-election in 1984; the first time Pennsylvania and Michigan carried Republican since George Bush won 40 states in 1988—it moved these former “Blue Firewall” states to a new status of presidential bellwether states.




 FYI 

There is another pattern I picked up on. Mentioning this, above, did not fit seamlessly within the this blog’s topic. And it can be considered bonus material. Simply put, I title it…FYI.

• As the 2008 Democratic presidential pickup winner, Barack Obama flipped a host of [pickup] states’ counties—not in the party’s column in decades—which also carried for his re-election in 2012. They also carried for Hillary Clinton, as she failed to hold the presidency in the Democratic column, in 2016. Among them: Virginia’s Henrico [1948], Loudoun (Leesburg, 1964), and Prince William (Manassas, 1964); Colorado’s Arapahoe (Littleton, 1964), Jefferson (Golden, 1964), and Ouray (Ouray, 1964); Ohio’s Hamilton (Cincinnati, 1964); Nevada’s Washoe (Reno, 1964); and New Mexico’s Los Alamos (Los Alamos, 1964). This also happened with counties in a notable state which did not once carry for Obama: Texas’s Dallas (Dallas, 1964) and Harris (Houston, 1964). 
• As the 2016 Republican presidential pickup winner, Donald Trump also flipped a host of [pickup] states’ counties not in the party’s column in decades. Among them: Wisconsin’s Kenosha (Kenosha, 1972) and Vernon (Viroque, 1984); Pennsylvania’s Erie (Erie, 1984), Luzerne (Wilkes–Barre, 1988), and Northampton (Easton, 1988); Michigan’s Isabella (Mount Pleasant, 1988) and Saginaw (Saginaw, 1984); Ohio’s Montgomery (Dayton, 1988), Portage (Ravenna, 1988), and Trumbull (Warren, 1972); Iowa’s Clinton (Clinton, 1984); Des Moines (Burlington, 1972), Dubuque (Dubuque, 1956), and Muscatine (Muscatine, 1984). This also happened with a county in a notable state which did not carry for Trump: Colorado’s Pueblo (Pueblo, 1972).

Perhaps this is a change in the particular market-to-market makeup of these states’ counties. Perhaps it is an example of some realigning voting patterns. (Pueblo County, Colorado, with its county seat Pueblo, voted the same as the state of Minnesota from 1960 to 2012, both giving during that period sole carriage for a Republican to Richard Nixon with his 49-state re-election in 1972. Perhaps Pueblo County flipping Republican in 2016, for Donald Trump, portends a possible flipping of Minnesota to Trump should he win re-election in 2020. The margins spread—Pueblo County, Colorado vs. Minnesota—was just 2 percentage points.)

Perhaps a part of this goes to what author Thomas Frank has mentioned about the Democratic Party for who they want as voters (affluent people) and who they have gradually abandoned (working class people) over the years. After all, in 2016 Hillary Clinton became the first Democrat to flip and carry California’s Orange County (Santa Ana) for the first time since Franklin Roosevelt won his second term with 46 (of 48) states in 1936.

One thing is certain: Based on what I wrote from this blog’s topic, “Election 2020’s Key Bellwethers: The Rust Belt Trio of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan,” I stated clearly why it is highly likely that the winner of the 2020 presidential election is not going to prevail without all three of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. For Donald Trump, and how he won them over in 2016, it is very doable for him should he win re-election in 2020. For the Democrats, after they nominated in 2016 Hillary Clinton rather than Bernie Sanders, they have a lot of work to do.

‘Thomas Frank: Trump Could Win the 2020 Election’

The Nation’s Jon Wiener has an interview with Thomas Frank here: Jon Wiener — Thomas Frank: Trump Could Win the 2020 Election. It is not surprising to me. Come to think, I will imagine how some of it unfolds. And I can get more specific about that in an upcoming blog entry. In the meantime, I hope readers will find this interesting.

OW | Good riddance, Paul Ryan!

A telling sign the Republicans are likely on the wrong side of a coming, midterm elections—here in 2018—is with the 54th speaker of the [U.S.] House opting to not seek re-election.

Paul Ryan, 47, who was also the 2012 Republican nominee for vice president of the United States under Mitt Romney, is opting out.

This is likely due to Ryan having internal polls showing his seat in Wisconsin #01, which includes Janesville, is in position to flip Democratic. The likely nominee will be Randy Bryce. Actually running a progressive and populous campaign, Bryce has the capability of unseating Ryan. So, Ryan has made the same decision as Darrell Issa (R-California #49): retire. At that rate, seeing a district whose poll numbers—combined with what is shaping up to be a midterm going against one’s political party—leave that incumbent poised for defeat, via an unseating, it makes sense to not bother trying to win re-election.

Paul Ryan is not retiring to have more time with his kids. He is retiring because he knows what is going on. He knows his position. He sees the writing on the wall. And it does him no good to try for another term and possibly get unseated. The last speaker of the U.S. House who was unseated was 49th Tom Foley (D-Washington #05) in 1994. That was the midterm Republican wave on the watch of Democratic incumbent U.S. president Bill Clinton. Tom Foley (1929–2013), in part, had Bill Clinton to thank. And now, here in 2018, but avoiding the humiliation suffered by Foley, Ryan can thank in advance Republican incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump.

It is good Paul Ryan will exit. He worked against the people. Ryan has been an example of possible sociopathic tendencies of a powerful politician. The people of this country does not deserve to suffer with that so-called representation let alone leadership.




And now for this Open Weekend [OW]…

EW | Remembering Prince

April 21, 2016 was the date on which Oscar and Grammy winner Prince died at age 57.

An excellent YouTube-uploaded video, by Jeanette Jing, presents how Prince (born June 7, 1958 in Minneapolis, Minnesota) had a political awareness.

For the second anniversary of his death, here is a tribute video to Prince.

And now for this Entertainment Weekend [EW]…

Ed Schultz and MSNBC

I posted it yesterday [Tuesday, April 17, 2018]. But, there have been since been more videos related to the topic of Ed Schultz revealing his experience toward the end of his period working at MSNBC. And I am making it today’s blog entry.


The first video is from David Rutz:

Here are responses from a few progressives: Jamarl Thomas, The Rational National, and The Humanist Report.

UPDATE 04.19.2018 @ 04:15 p.m. ET: Three more videos were uploaded to YouTube today from Niko House, Secular Talk, and Jimmy Dore. 

BARBARA BUSH
June 8, 1925–April 17, 2018

I will acknowledge the death of former First Lady Barbara Bush at age 92. At this time, I don’t have anything I want to say about her. She did not lead this country, as her husband and son both did, but she was not a quiet First Lady. Her husband was not as destructive to this county as was her son. It may be that I generally don’t look at presidents’ spouses to be of great consequence. I may be wrong.

A War Song

^ The above is a tribute video/song for the latest in Syria and possibly more being so desired by the military industrial complex and the political establishment.

Open Weekend

This “Open Weekend” thread is a regular thing for Fridays, Saturdays, and Sundays.

Please take this Progressives Chat to wherever you may want it to go.

Entertainment Weekend

“Entertainment Weekend” threads invite you to share anything—including content—on movies, television, and music on Fridays, Saturdays, and Sundays.

Noting April 12

Although this blog is being posted on Wednesday, April 11, 2018—to allow for a two-day period of comments prior to the weekend threads—there are two notable items about Thursday, April 12.

April 12, 1945 was the date on which 32nd president of the United States Franklin Roosevelt (D–New York) died. The only U.S. president elected beyond two terms, and with landslide victories from all four elections (1932, 1936, 1940, and 1944), there is no point to write a blog entry about the life of Roosevelt. People know enough. Perhaps recommendable is viewing Ken Burns’s 2014 documentary The Roosevelts.

April 12, 1981 was the date on which U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D–Hawaii #02) was born. With much-discussion and -speculation over whether Bernie Sanders would be the next president of the United States specifically from the Democratic Party, there has been a part of me thinking it could be Tulsi Gabbard. Not 2020. But 2024. Mind you, this is not a prediction. But, there is a sense that the corrupt, corporate Democratic Party Establishment are going to implode the party—clearly preferring re-election for Donald Trump in 2020 (as they did his first-term victory in 2016)—before allowing an actual progressive nominated for president of the United States.

Russia!

Since 2016, no country outside the United States has been mentioned more than Russia.

We know why.

But, I confess that I haven’t traveled to other countries since going to Canada in 1995. (Geography. It is close to my metro area, Detroit, Michigan.)

If the Democratic Party Establishment—and their sheeple—continue speaking about Russia, I would appreciate something of use like the information in this YouTube-uploaded video.

OW | Jamarl Thomas Videos

I am going to include some videos—all by the intelligent and insightful Jamarl Thomas—which were uploaded Thursday [April 5, 2018]. They are interesting topics. But, due to timing, I figured there was no point posting these Thursday given a new day (well, weekend) was coming up.

United States…

United Kingdom…

And now for this Open Weekend [OW]…

EW | Apple iPad

We are back with the “Entertainment Weekend” threads. But, what I wanted to present here did not belong in “Open Weekend” so much as it does in “Entertainment Weekend.”


I came across something I found interesting. And I know I’m not the only one here at Progressives Chat who uses Apple [Mac]. The following YouTube-uploaded videos come from a man I trust, Soldier Knows Best, who talks about and reviews electronics products. He reviewed some Apple products in late-March. I am considering getting an iPad. (I’ve never owned a tablet before. I am on my way to getting a new iPhone later this year.) For anyone who watches the videos, I welcome you to give your two-cents. Tell me if have you the iPad Pro. Tell me anything related to the subject. (For me, this is not work-related. It is personal use.)

A link to Apple’s website: iPad 9.7-inch.




And now for this Entertainment Weekend [EW]…

• SPRING BREAK • Open Week

Reminders:

• “Open Weekend” and “Entertainment Weekend” will be available this Friday [April 6, 2018].

• Regular blog entry topics will resume next Monday [April 9, 2018].

• This thread, for any loose posting of comments, is good for seven [7] days.

Note:

This coming Wednesday [April 4, 2018] will be the 50th anniversary of the assassination of Reverend Martin Luther King, Jr. The date of his death, in Memphis Tennessee, was April 4, 1968. I will not be having a thread on that day. (I had a thread on what was his birthday: Progressives Chat — ‘Martin Luther King, Jr. Day’.) I just wanted to mention this, not only because of it being that milestone but sad anniversary, but it will also get mentioned elsewhere. So, this is more a reminder that it is coming up this very week.