Realigning Elections for U.S. President

If Election 2020 switches the White House from Republican to Democratic, it will mark the third of four United States presidential election cycles which was won by that party.

Walter Dean Burnham, a professor, political scientist, and author who was born in 1930, came up with a theory on Realigning Elections dealing with critical elections especially in United States history. (Source: Wikipedia — Walter Dean Burnham.)

There have been particular points, typically spaced out between 30- to 40-year periods, in which some event—I will use the word catalyst—caused the incumbent party to lose, I shall say faith, in the voting electorate. A given presidential election that marked the turning point. A critical election. A new realigning election. (Source: Wikipedia — Realigning election.)

What a realigning election does, at the level of U.S. President, is usher in a new period in which the party that benefits becomes dominant for an outstanding majority of election cycles. This has certainly applied to the United States’s current two-party system—the Republican and Democratic political parties—since the former first prevailed in the realigning presidential election of 1860.



Realigning Elections for the Republicans and Democrats

☑ 1860–1892—Republican: Noted by Wikipedia as being the election that was the catalyst of the American Civil War, the Republicans won their first United States presidential election, with Abraham Lincoln, in 1860. The party won 7 of 9 cycles (1860, 1864, 1868, 1872, 1876, 1880, and 1888). The out party, the Democratic Party, won 2 of 9 with non-consecutive wins in 1884 and 1892 by Grover Cleveland.

☑ 1896–1928—Republican: The Panic of 1893 struck on the watch of Democrat Grover Cleveland, delivering Congress in the 1894 midterm elections to the Republicans. The 1896 election, with William McKinley, saw the beginning of the party eventually having won 7 of  9 cycles (1896, 1900, 1904, 1908, 1920, 1924, and 1928). The out party, the Democratic Party, won 2 of 9 cycles with wins in 1912 and 1916 by Woodrow Wilson.

☑ 1932–1964—Democratic: The stock market crash and the Great Depression struck on the watch of Republican Herbert Hoover, who clearly did not know how to deal with it. This delivered a blow to his re-election as the nation shifted 35 percentage points, from 1928 to 1932, and turned 34 states blue to deliver 42 (of a then-48) states to Franklin Roosevelt. He ushered in a New Deal and a Democratic realignment covering the 1930s and 1940s and the first two cycles of the 1960s. The party won the 7 of 9 cycles of 1932, 1936, 1940, 1944, 1948, 1960, and 1964. The out party, the Republican Party, won 2 of 9 cycles in 1952 and 1956 by Dwight Eisenhower.

☑ 1968–2004—Republican: The Vietnam War—with its increasing unpopularity and its dividing the party—took its toll on Democrat Lyndon Johnson. Early primaries states showed he was weak. And on March 31, 1968, Johnson announced his decision to not run for possible re-election. The party’s crackup at the 1968 Democratic National Convention, in Chicago, Illinois, eventually led to their defeat in November. A Republican pickup of the presidency for Richard Nixon was the start of the party winning 7 of 10 cycles. It was a matter of timing which extended the number of cycles by one. The Republicans won in 1968, 1972, 1980, 1984, 1988, 2000, and 2004. The out party, the Democratic Party, won the remaining 3 cycles with a sole term won in 1976 by Jimmy Carter and the two terms won in 1992 and 1996 by Bill Clinton.

Those are not a complete list. I did not cite 1800 and 1828 because, in this current period, we have the exact two political parties—Republican and Democratic—which dates back to that example of 1860. And from 1860 to the previous election cycle, 2016, were a period of 156 years and 40 election cycles. The previous, presidential realigning election period cutoff may have been 2004. And this had many, back when we approaching and into Election 2008, thinking that that year’s election would move to a new period of realigning the presidency to the Democrats. So, let us further consider:

☑ 2008–20xx—Democratic: The Iraq War and the Economic Meltdown of 2008 were on the watch of the term-limited Republican-affiliated U.S. president George W. Bush. There was no doubt, by anyone with a sense of history, the presidency was going to switch in 2008 from Republican to Democratic. Barack Obama became the first person who is black to get elected U.S. president. In 2012, he won re-election. 2016 was a Republican pickup for Donald Trump. And, as we are five-plus months from Election Day, Trump is vulnerable to becoming the 11th president who, in his efforts to win re-election, may become unseated. What would be the catalyst is the coronavirus pandemic having struck on the watch of Trump. On the watch of U.S. president who is affiliated with the Republican Party. COVID–19 is devastating. Devastating with fatalities. Devastating with the lives in continues to put at risk. It is also devastating on the economy, at least here in the United States, which includes massive unemployment. Can Trump recover from job-approval numbers suggesting he is good for the 43- to 46-percent range—when the two-party vote for U.S. President typically combines for 97 to 99 percent—and suggests he could lose the U.S. Popular Vote by the range of –5 to –13 percentage points? That would suggest a 2020 Democratic pickup of the presidency, for presumptive nominee Joe Biden, of 27 to 35 states which means, for Trump, carrying between 15 to 23 states. If Trump does not win re-election, it would be hard to make the argument that Election 2008 did not mark the beginning of a new period of realigning the presidency to the Democrats.


When reading the topic of Realigning Elections, it does not cover only United States presidential elections. But, where are at right now—in late-May 2020—cannot be answered factually as to whether we are in a Democratic presidential realignment until the arrival and passing of Election Day, November 3, 2020.

My sense is this: If Election 2020 ends up switching U.S. President from Republican to Democratic, you can look back to a 40-year parallel. 1968 to 1980 saw three of four cycles won by the Republicans. 2008 to 2020 would become three of four cycles won by the Democrats.

Also worth considering: Election 1984 was a Republican hold, for Ronald Reagan. If Election 2020 becomes a Democratic pickup, it is more likely than not that Election 2024 would end up a Democratic hold. So, take those five cycles of 1968 to 1984, and note that four were won by the Republicans. Run a 40-year parallel, and consider the cycles of 2008 to 2024, and note that four of five would become won by the Democrats.

If what I am pointing out here, in this period of time, manifests...I would have to reach the conclusion that, beginning in 2008, we are in a presidential realigning period favoring the Democratic Party.