The Democrats, who are heavily favored to win back the presidency of the United States, have a potential to flip nearly or, in fact, ten states. (There is also potential for an eleventh.)
The ten states, in my estimated order, are (* 2016 Republican pickup): * Michigan; * Pennsylvania; * Wisconsin (tipping-point state from 2016); Arizona; * Florida; non-state Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District; North Carolina; Georgia; * Iowa; non-state * Maine’s 2nd Congressional District; * Ohio; Texas; and, if reaching an eleventh pickup, South Carolina. (The Palmetto State, while this may be surprising to some, reportedly has its U.S. Senate race in Tossup. Source: South Carolina Senate Moves To [Tossup]. And I don’t think the winner of that race will finish dramatically higher in margin than the presidential candidate who carries the state. This is with a scenario of a same-party outcome for both races.)
A number of these would-be pickup states are not very surprising. They have a pattern: A pair here and there which have voted alike over a long period of time. I call them Companion States. This is not a thorough history (certainly to not include every state), and I am not tracing them all back to their first presidential-election year of having voted. I chose to cite a good number of states which do stand out historically. The above map shows a color-coding for particular pairs followed by, below, their details.
* * * * *
Elections 2016 and 2020—Key States
✔ Pennsylvania and Michigan. Since the Republicans first won the presidency of the United States with Abraham Lincoln, the two states have carried the same in all but three elections (1932, 1940, and 1976) since 1860. When they disagreed twice in the 1930s and 1940s, Democrat Franklin Roosevelt carried both in three of his four elections—at a time when the Democrats’ base was in the South and the Republicans’ base was in the North—with their occurrences (not voting with the winner) timed differently: Pennsylvania was one of six states which backed unseated Herbert Hoover; Michigan flipped and carried for Wendell Wilkie of neighboring Indiana. In 1976, Michigan was home state for the Republican incumbent U.S. president (who carried his home state while he became unseated)—and Pennsylvania flipped for the Democratic challenger and pickup winner. They aligned in 37 of the last 40 cycles for 92.50 percent.
✔ Wisconsin and Iowa. With exceptions in 1976 and 2004, the two states carried the same since 1944. When they voted differently in 1976 and 2004—both times Iowa carried Republican (1976 unseated Gerald Ford; 2004 re-elected George W. Bush) while Wisconsin carried Democratic (1976 pickup winner Jimmy Carter; 2004 nominee John Kerry)—their margins spread were only 2.68 and 1.05 percentage points. They aligned in 17 of the last 19 cycles for 89.47 percent.
✔ Florida and Ohio. The latter has been on bellwether status since 1896 (not siding with the winners in 1944 and 1960). The former has been on bellwether status since 1928 (not siding with the Democratic presidential pickup winners in 1960 and 1992). The two bellwether states carried the same in all cycles with exceptions of 1944 and 1992 since 1928. They aligned in 21 of the last 23 cycles for 91.30 percent.
Those were the 2016 Republican pickups states for Donald Trump. The following pairs are 2012-to-2016 Republican holds which are susceptible to becoming 2020 Democratic pickups:
✔ Georgia and Arizona. The two states do not have an impressively long-term alignment. (Since 1984, they carried the same in 7 of 9 cycles for 77.77 percent.) But, since 1988, their margins were within five percentage points in spread in all cycles except 2000 and 2004. They carried differently in 1992 and 1996: Bill Clinton flipped Georgia in 1992; he lost it (to Bob Dole) in 1996; and, with re-election, Clinton counter-flipped Arizona (after it was in the column for unseated George Bush in 1992). Yet, in those two cycles of carrying and coloring differently, they were less than five points in spread. Since 1988, their margins spread were: 0.96, 2.54, 3.40, 5.41, 6.16, 3.28, 1.23, and 1.60 percentage points. Average, over those 8 cycles, was 3.07 percentage points in margins spread. This makes it more likely the two vote the same again here in 2020.
✔ Texas and North Carolina. The two states have voted the same, with exception of 2008, since 1972. They aligned in 11 of the last 12 cycles for 91.66 percent.
✔ Texas and South Carolina. The two states have voted the same in all of the 12 last cycles of 1972 to 2016 for 100 percent.
✔ Texas and the Carolinas. South is closer to Texas with respect for margins and rank. In 2008, 2012, and 2016, they performed 2.79, 5.31, and 5.49 points in spread. And they were two states apart in rank in 2016. (South Carolina and Texas were Donald Trump’s Nos. 20 and 22 best states, making Texas and South Carolina Hillary Clinton’s Nos. 29 and 31 best states.) And it is anticipated, for the 2020 Democrats, Texas and South Carolina will be their Nos. 30 and 31 best states. (North Carolina, which is not colored on the above map, will probably come in at No. 26. Since 1992, presidential winners carried an average 29 states with the range between 26 and 32.)
Election 2020: Non-Key States
There are other pairs of states with longterm likeness in their voting. They are not considered instrumental in deciding Election 2020. They are aligned with either major party; which is why I color-coded them in warm or cool colors; avoiding today’s red-vs.-blue paradigm but logically keeping in mind red is a warm and blue is a cool color as to slyly indicate their current party-preferred alignment. They are also worthy of note as Companion States.
✔ California and Illinois. With exception of 1960 Democratic pickup winner John Kennedy—who narrowly flipped the latter while narrowly missing the former—they aligned in 24 of the last 25 cycles (dating back to 1920) for 96 percent.
✔ New York and Massachusetts. Since 1932, with exceptions in 1948 and 1972 (when the latter was the only state to carry for losing Democrat George McGovern; the former carried Republican both times), they aligned in 20 of the last 22 cycles for 90.90 percent.
✔ Washington and Oregon. Since 1920, with exceptions of 1948 and 1968 (the former carried Democratic while the latter carried Republican both times), they aligned in 23 of the last 25 cycles for 92 percent.
✔ Virginia and Colorado. Since 1948, with exception of 1992 (when the former sided with unseated Republican incumbent George Bush while the latter flipped for Democratic challenger and pickup winner Bill Clinton), they aligned in 17 of the last 18 cycles for 94.44 percent.
✔ Tennessee and Kentucky. The former (a little more so than the latter) was a bellwether state, siding with all but two presidential winners (in 1924 and 1960), from 1912 to 2004. Since 1900, with exceptions of 1920, 1924, and 1952, they aligned in 27 of the last 30 cycles for 90 percent.
✔ Indiana and Missouri. Like the above Georgia and Arizona, this pair does not have a longterm likeness. But, beginning in 2008, even in that Democratic pickup year when they carried differently (Indiana was a Democratic pickup for Barack Obama while Missouri lost its bellwether status siding with losing Republican John McCain), their margins spread were incredibly close to each other: 1.16, 0.84, and 0.50.
✔ Alabama and Mississippi. Since their first vote in 1820, the two disagreed only in 1840 and 1960. They seceded from the Union and did not vote in 1864 (Alabama) and 1868 (Mississippi, both elections). Discounting the two cycles, and also setting aside 1960 (when Harry Byrd, not an official candidate, won the popular vote in Mississippi), they aligned in 46 of 47 cycles for 97.87 percent.
✔ Nevada and New Mexico. Since the latter joined the union and first voted in 1912, they disagreed only in 2000 (when New Mexico barely carried for U.S. Popular Vote winner Al Gore and Nevada barely flipped and carried for Republican pickup winner George W. Bush). They aligned in 26 of the last 27 cycles for 96.29 percent.
✔ Hawaii and Rhode Island. Since the former joined the union and voted for the first time in 1960, they aligned in all of the last 15 cycles—Democratic every time except for the 49-state re-elections of 1972 Richard Nixon and 1984 Ronald Reagan—for 100 percent.
No comments:
Post a Comment