Election 2020: Final Predictions

 

“Election 2020: Final Predictions” can be summed up as follows: The Democrats Will Win the Trifecta. 

This means Democratic pickups for U.S. President—with Joe Biden unseating Donald Trump (who will become the 11th such in our nation’s history)—along with new majority control of the U.S. Senate. The U.S. House is already in the column for the Democrats, a majority pickup in the midterm elections of 2018, so it adds up. COVID–19. On the watch of Trump. Democratic Wave. A trifecta.

The top map is for U.S. President. Estimate: Joe Biden 54% vs. Donald Trump 45%. A 9-point margin in the U.S. Popular Vote. Carriage of 30 states (up from the 2016 result of 20 states), with net gains of +10 states and two congressional districts—Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District—all appearing in light blue, and a total of 413 electoral votes (up from the 2016 result of a mathematical 232 electoral votes). 

The above map is for U.S. Senate. Current status: Republican 53 vs. Democratic 47. I am predicting the Democrats will end up with 54 seats. A net gain of +7. Republicans win a pickup of normally Republican-aligned Alabama. (Hence, the use of light red.) That adjusts it to: Republican 54 vs. Democratic 46. The Democrats will flip the U.S. Senate by winning counter-pickups of +8 seats. So, that is why the net gain will be: Democratic +7. 

No map is given for U.S. House. Format here is not friendly for getting a good look at the nation’s 435 individual congressional districts. I estimate the Democrats will win a net gain of around +10 seats. (The U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. House will be close to that of U.S. President.) The state most prominent will be Texas. Donald Trump carried it, in 2016, by +800k-plus votes. For that raw-vote margin to get reduced so significantly means there will be state Republican-held seats which will flip Democratic. 

I will make one more prediction: Joe Biden will not be a good U.S. president. 

The blog topic next week, Monday, November 2, 2020, will simply be titled “2020 Election Week.” I don’t know what my availability will be at the time. But, it may be used as a thread for readers to comment on Election Day and Election Night.