The 2022 Midterm Elections Wave

The 2022 midterm elections were a wave election.

They were not a wave election for the White House opposition Republican Party.

They were not a wave election for the White House Democratic Party.

This was not a Red Wave.

This was not a Blue Wave.

If one insists on a color, and that is understandable, this was more in the way of a Purple Wave.

Current trajectory for the United States House of Representatives, which has not been called by the date of this blog topic (but will become updated and mentioned should they be determined and projected during this week), is in favor of a Republican majority pickup.

The United States Senate, as determined last Saturday [November 11, 2022], was projected as a Democratic hold regardless the special election scheduled for December 6, 2022 in Georgia. (The outcome would be either 50-vs.-50 or 51-vs.-49 in favor of the Democrats.)

The type of wave election that best describes the midterm election of 2022 was one not experienced before.

The 2022 midterm elections was an Abortion Wave.

Yes—a midterms wave election which was for Reproductive Freedom.

The Roe v. Wade decision, from the U.S. Supreme Court, was in 1973. The 2022 repeal of that decision, in Dobbs v. Jackson, was an electoral gift to the 2022 Democrats. Had this not happened, they would have been on the wrong side of a wave election. A sufficient number of voters—nationwide and state after state—solidified their support to make sure the Republicans would not have their wave. (Side note: On this issue, I support Pro-Choice.)

This is, understandably, Pro-Choice females not wanting government to tell them whether or not they can have an abortion. (A sufficient number of males are also Pro-Choice.) I think there were plenty of people, including myself, who underestimated the level of just how critically important the role this issue would have, while anticipating and predicting, with the 2022 midterm elections. That Inflation, while the No. 1 issue with many, was outvoted by Abortion because, and I am guessing here, enough of the voting electorate are aware of enough of the past economic crises which have struck every so many years while this has not been so with Reproductive Freedom. 

I had, during Election Week, predicted 240 and 52 seats for a majority-pickup winning Republican U.S. House and U.S. Senate. It has, over the last few days, been estimated the 2022 GOP is poised to win over the U.S. House with around 220 seats. (Required for majority are 218.) This is not even 51 percent of the U.S. House seats. To look back at a post-17th Amendment, dating back to the 1910s, for subsequent midterm elections: There were eight cycles, prior to 2022, in which the U.S. House flipped. (Those occurred in 1918, 1930, 1946, 1954, 1994, 2006, 2010, and 2018.) Of those eight, the U.S. House without the U.S. Senate flipped three prior times. (Those occurred in 1930, 2010, and 2018.) The remaining five cycles saw both houses of Congress flip. (Those occurred in 1918, 1946, 1954, 1994, and 2006.) In every case, the White House opposition party entered the next Congress with a higher percentage of seats in the U.S. House. (This helps explain why, when one flips, what comes first is the House.) The average number of newly established seats, based on their percentages (and rounded to their whole numbers), were 235 seats in the U.S. House. In seven of those past cycles, the opposition party established seats in the 230s or 240s. (The area of 53 to 55 percent of U.S. House seats.) Just once did it fall below 230. This occurred with the 1930 Democrats. They ended up with 219 seats. This is the estimated level which would be experienced by the 2022 Republicans. So, it is no wonder the 2022 Democrats will retain majority control of the U.S. Senate. (The upcoming runoff in Georgia, I will guess, is going to result in a Democratic hold for incumbent Raphael Warnock. I doubt the GOP will knock themselves out to try to get their nominee, Herschel Walker, to unseat Warnock in an effort to end up Even at 50-vs.-50. Based on how the votes have played out—nationally and state after state—it is likely this will have the same outcome.)

Ballot Measures

There were numerous Ballot Measures—ones which were favorable outcomes for The People—which are not limited to only particular state colors. They came from Red States, Blue States, and Purple States.

Given my summary of the 2022 midterm elections, especially for federal offices, were an Abortion Wave, four states were won by voters for Reproductive Freedom: California, Kentucky, Vermont and, especially noteworthy, Michigan. (In fact, the Michigan Legislatures resulted in the 2022 Democrats winning back power, for majority, for the first time in 40 years.) … Two states voted in favor to Legalize Marijuana: Missouri and North Dakota. … Two states voted for Minimum Wage Increase: Nebraska and Nevada.

Among other Ballot Measures, approved by voters, which should benefit The People: Alabama voted to Allow Internet infrastructure funding. … Arizona Voted to Impose new medical debt limits. … California voted to Require funding of K–12 art education. … Colorado voted to Create [a] “Healthy school meals for all” program. … Connecticut voted to Allow early voting. … Maryland voted to Change residency requirements for state legislative candidates. … Massachusetts voted to Increase taxes on incomes greater than $1 million. … Michigan voted to Change term limits for lawmakers; require annual financial disclosures [of officeholders]. … Montana voted to Require search warrant to access electronic data or or communications. … New York voted to Create “True cost of living” metric in New York City. … North Dakota voted to Limit governors and state legislatures to serving eight years in office.

The Ultimate Winners

One of this site’s regulars, cathyx, posted comment showing a color-coded map of the actual winners for the 2022 midterm elections (and you can apply this to every type of general election and specific year). 

So…

The Ultimate Winners of the 2022 midterm elections are: The Oligarchs.

There will be no argument coming from me.